274
FXUS65 KPIH 010951
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
351 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A meteorologically active wx pattern continues, although sensible
impacts out of this pattern will continue to be somewhat niche
affecting only specific groups with specific concerns while most of
the region fares well. Another FREEZE WARNING remains in effect this
morning up the ern Magic Valley/Snake Plain corridor, and as
expected, quite a bit of cloud cover is going to make this one
marginal with some locales dropping as low as 27-28 degF while
others hold at or just above freezing. Another FREEZE WARNING is
likely Thu AM before overnight lows start to trend upward as we head
toward the weekend. Today will be our coldest day with high temps
generally 40-50. On the wind side of things, we`re holding with no
advisories today as overall speeds will be less than yesterday, but
keep an eye on the Raft River region as a few gusts over 45 MPH
could still occur, especially near Malta and Idahome which may be a
concern for high profile vehicles on I-84. Otherwise, low pressure
spinning just to our north will produce rain and snow showers and
even a few thunderstorms across the region, with peaks in coverage
this afternoon and again Thu afternoon. We still expect any travel
impacts from snow will be brief and localized up along our higher
elevation highways, with accumulations even in the backcountry
holding at only an inch or two. 01

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
Friday looks to be transition day into a brief ridge of high
pressure as departing upper trough shifts into the Plains and next
Pacific low remains off PacNW coast. Could see some precipitation
lingering Friday mainly eastern half of forecast area, otherwise
drier and warmer conditions expected for the early weekend. Deep
upper low shifts inland Saturday night into Sunday, but models
remain slightly off on positioning. GFS further south and slightly
slower with onset of precipitation into East Idaho. ECMWF slightly
more north, and faster with precipitation into the area. By Monday,
operational deterministic runs back on track, with deep elongated
and negatively tilted trough through the PacNW, closed off at
base over/close to East Idaho. Closed low base swings northeast
into the Dakotas by Tuesday night, but trough energy remains in
place with complex blocking pattern trying to develop over Canada.
Ensemble clusters are in general agreement keeping active broad
trough across the northwest states. After Saturday, cool unsettled
and windy conditions will be in place once again. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...
Area of -SHSN working through the highlands of Eastern Idaho this
morning, with localized IFR conditions. Expect -SHSN/SHRA to
redevelop by afternoon, as center of low pinwheels through the
region. Low threat for isold TS will be along/north of a line from
KSUN-KIDA-KDIJ, but potential also exists as far south as KPIH.
Will likely hold off on including VCTS with 12Z terminals for now.
Gusty winds again a threat today, with sustained speeds steady
around 15kts for KIDA and KPIH. KBYI likely slightly stronger 20-
25kts. Winds and convection decrease around/slightly after sunset,
with VFR conditions expected to return overnight. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$