384
FXUS65 KPSR 301002
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
302 AM MST Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, slightly above normal temperatures (3-5 degrees), and dry
conditions will prevail through the rest of the week. An upper
level trough will pass through the Intermountain West mid-week
resulting in breezy conditions across the region. For this weekend
temperatures are expected to remain above normal with slightly
cooler temperatures (about normal) forecast for Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level heights will continue to rise today, ushering in a
period of warmer than average high temperatures. Expect high temps
to reach the low to mid 90s in the lower deserts and mid to upper
80s for higher elevations. A shortwave trough will swing through
the Intermountain West mid-week while the core remains removed to
the north from our area. However, we will see a tightening
gradient as a result of this shortwave with an associated weak
frontal boundary pushing into the region going into early
Thursday. An increase in breezy conditions is expected
Thursday with gusts upwards of 15-20 mph possible across much of
the area. Temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will see some
slight cooling while remaining near to slightly above normal.
Lower desert highs during this time will top out in the low 90s.

For this weekend, cluster analysis continues to show high
uncertainty for the potential of a cut-off low to dip into the
region. Depending on how the pattern evolves this weekend will
determine how much cooling and any precipitation potential that
may impact the region. For now deterministic models are showing
that the high temps for Monday will dip into the upper 80`s in the
lower deserts. Most ensembles and deterministic models favor dry
conditions heading into next week. Windier conditions are also
possible heading into the weekend with speeds reaching 15-20 mph
sustained, gusting up to 25-30mph on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are expected across the region during the
next TAF period. Winds will follow diurnal tendencies with speeds
generally aob 10 kts at most terminals, except at BLH during the
afternoon hours, where sustained speeds between 10-15 kts will be
common with occasional gusts near 20 kts. Skies will be clear
through the forecast window.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist this week and into this weekend
with high temperatures around 3-5 degrees above normal each day.
Winds will be light and follow typical upslope/downvalley patterns
Tuesday and Wednesday before increased breeziness arrives
Thursday with gusts reaching the 15-20 mph range across much of
the area. Windy conditions will also be possible across the
western districts on Thursday as a dry cold front passes through
the Colorado River Valley. Minimum relative humidity values will
range from 8-15% each day. Moisture recovery will range from poor
to fair each night, or around 25-50%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...95