National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KPUB 221724
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely today across the
  San Luis Valley, Fremont county, and portions of the southern
  I-25 corridor.

- Fire weather concerns last through the rest of the week, with
  Thursday showing the most concern.

- A new system starts to move in on Thursday, increasing chances
  for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Relatively quiet early this morning, with mostly clear skies in
place across southern Colorado. Will likely see increases in high
clouds through the morning hours mainly across the Pikes Peak
region, as clouds moving off of the mountains spill south. Dry
weather is anticipated over most locations through the afternoon and
evening hours, as a rather dry air mass is in place. That being
said, some slight increases in moisture and instability today could
yield a few showers and an isolated storm or two this afternoon,
mainly over the higher terrain. Think the chance for any storm to
move off the higher terrain are low at this time, given the drier
air. If there were to be a shower or storm develop over the lower
terrain, it would be across the Palmer Divide east into Kiowa
County, where a surface trough with slightly higher moisture and
instability will reside.

Deep westerlies in place will support a warming air mass today, with
temperatures rising well into the 70s and 80s for most locations.
Under deep mixing, the warmer temps and falling dew points will
yield lowest min RH values of around 8-10 percent. With stronger
westerlies mixing down to the surface later today into the
afternoon, will see critical fire weather conditions develop over
much of south central Colorado. With no real big change in expected
conditions, didn`t make any changes to the Red Flag Warning in
effect for the San Luis Valley, Fremont county, and portions of the
southern I-25 corridor. Do think spotty critical fire weather
conditions will be possible over many locations across southern
Colorado though.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

With a cold front passing through the area late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning, the rest of Tuesday will be a fair bit cooler
and a bit more unsettled. High temperatures will only be in the low-
70s across most of the area, a good drop of 10-15 degrees from
Monday. Meanwhile, the lingering moisture and upsloping winds from
behind the front will give us some scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly over the peaks of the
mountains. Current data is pretty spotty in terms of precipitation,
with the best chances tied to the passing energy from the wave to
our northeast. There will also be some marginal critical fire
weather conditions over the San Luis Valley Tuesday afternoon. Winds
will be gusty for a few hours around peak heating, while some
downsloping off of the nearby terrain will reduce humidity to near-
critical values. However, at this time conditions are a bit too
marginal and spotty to warrant any highlights.

The upper-level ridge will continue to build in overhead on
Wednesday, though the lingering cooler airmass from the front will
limit heating slightly. High temperatures will be in the mid-70s to
low-80s, with far fewer clouds overall. Critical fire weather
conditions will return to the San Luis Valley, along with some
spotty critical conditions in and around Huerfano County.

For late week, southwest winds will pick up as an upper-level trough
and associated low move in from the west coast. More widespread
critical fire weather conditions are expected across the area on
Thursday as temperatures climb back into the 80s. More
precipitation will also move into the area, with a potential dryline
setup near the CO/KS border. There still exists some model
inconsistency on the speed and track of the incoming low, but
current general consensus has the trough moving into Colorado
sometime late Thursday into early Friday. Temperatures will somewhat
cool off again as showers and thunderstorms move into the area.
Friday will also see some wraparound moisture from the passing low,
meaning that the cooler and unsettled pattern will continue as we
head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area over the next
24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. An isolated shower is possible over the higher terrain And
Palmer Divide this aftn, but not enough to warrant a mention in
the TAFs. Plan on thin mid and high level cloudiness to linger
through the evening, with west-southwest winds increasing and
gusting up to 25-30 kt at times in the evening. An approaching
cold front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer Divide in
the 09z-12z time frame, producing N-NE surface winds for KCOS
and KPUB overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-
227>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOORE