881
FXUS61 KRLX 070649
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
249 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect daily chances for showers and storms, and the frequency
of storms will pose concern for localized flooding. Severe
storms are possible Tuesday, and through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Monday...

Cleaned up POPs through the evening hours to reflect current
conditions and trends, and also latest hi-res guidance.
Otherwise, did drop sky cover a bit over central and western
parts of the CWA to match the patchy clearing and filtered
sunshine we`ve been seeing. Did add in fog to the weather grids
for some valley locations.


As of 122 PM Monday...

The severe threat remains low this afternoon and into this
evening, but some storms have been producing small hail up to
0.50" in diameter, below severe criteria. 1 hour flash flood
guidance is lowest near the Ohio River in northwestern WV and
southeast OH, around 0.75-1.25". Therefore, we will continue to
monitor for the threat of flooding where thunderstorms move over
repeated areas.

Dense fog will likely develop overnight with calm winds and
plentiful surface moisture, especially in areas that saw
rainfall today.

The threat of severe thunderstorms will return tomorrow, with
all severe modes possible (damaging winds, tornadoes, large
hail). MLCAPE values of 1,500-2,000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear
of 35-45 kts will provide support for organized convection
Tuesday afternoon and evening. The better atmospheric dynamics
will likely be across western WV, southeast OH and northeast KY,
and this is where the Slight Risk is located. The best overall
threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon will be just outside
of our County Warning Area, across central and western Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

A triple point low pressure system out over the Midwest will
lift a front through the area starting this period. Frontal
passage is forecast to occur across Wednesday as the front
surges south and then lifts north as a warm front when the low
gets closer to the area. Bouyancy associated in the warm sector
will allow for possible thunderstorms some of which could become
severe due to high wind shear. With mid to upper 60F dewpoints
advecting in from the southwest the airmass is quickly going to
recover and support thunderstorm activity throughout the day.

The aforementioned system will push in a cold front on Thursday
which will have the ability to support supercell activity
during the day. All hazards can be associated with this system
as it is forecast to move across toward the northeast just
grazing the northern periphery of our CWA. Heavy downpours will
be a thing to consider with flash flood guidance very low in
certain area, especially along the Ohio River on the WV side. A
few tornadoes cannot be ruled out of the broken line expected to
enter the CWA from the southwest according to Hi-res models.

Damaging wind and large hail are possible as well with severe
indices indicating high shear for prolong hail growth lifted in
the updrafts, plenty of instability and high DCAPE values which
will support downbursts potential. This activity will likely
extent through the afternoon and evening on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Wrap around flow from the aforementioned system will keep
chances of showers and thunderstorms along the mountains and the
rest of the area cannot be ruled out for that matter. Active
weather will persist through the rest of the long term period as
a system from the northwest is forecast to approach the area on
Saturday and will likely wash out most of the weekend. But
according to models they are very inconsistent on timing
therefore went ahead and accepted central guidance equating to
chances for thunderstorms and shower activity for the weekend,
even though there is potential for more activity under a broad
upper level low.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 AM Monday...

Another night of bouncing flight conditions is underway in the
midst of low stratus and valley fog attempting to develop around
the area. Majority of sites obtained tempo groups with this
issuance to specify varying ceilings/vsbys as we remain within
the grips of a nearby frontal boundary. Should see gradual
improvements to baseline MVFR ceilings after daybreak, then to
low end VFR for the afternoon.

Unsettled weather continues to dominate the afternoon and
evening forecast on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered storms
possible across the Central Appalachians. Categorized this with
VCTS for most TAF sites for the final few lines within this TAF
issuance.

Light winds overnight will remain generally out of the
south/southwest on Tuesday ahead of a disturbance progged to
arrive later in the work week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium, low within areas of fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset and duration of fog/low stratus may
vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 05/07/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/MEK
NEAR TERM...FK/JMC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK