Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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359 FXUS61 KRNK 111827 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 227 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through the region this evening bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure builds in behind the front with dry weather will through Monday. The next storm system arrives with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - No change needed to timing and location of showers and thunderstorms. - High confidence of a dry forecast on Sunday A short wave over Michigan will generate multiple bands of shower and isolated thunderstorms that will track southeast across the region. Good consensus of timing with a large number of the Hi-Res and convective-allowing models. As an example this brings the probability of precipitation through Bluefield from 18Z/2PM through 00Z/8PM and through Danville from 22Z/6PM through 03Z/11PM. The most likely location for thunderstorms is below the cold air aloft, mainly across West Virginia and the northern half of Virginia. Drier air at mid and upper levels comes into the area behind this short wave tonight and Sunday. Expect low clouds to develop overnight.These clouds will erode Sunday morning. The winds will turn to the northwest behind the cold front associated with the short wave. As mixing begins on Sunday winds will gust into the 20 to 30 mph, especially at higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for warmer conditions on Monday. 2) Unsettled weather will arrive during Monday night into Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will move offshore on Monday. A building upper level ridge combined with southwest flow at the surface should advect warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico to the Appalachian Mountains for Monday afternoon. However, the jump in warmth and moisture will also provide increasing clouds and instability as a low pressure system approaches the central Mississippi River Valley on Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will begin along the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest Virginia during Monday night and spread throughout the remainder of the Mid Atlantic by Tuesday. The unsettled weather will persist through Tuesday night as the low pressure system crosses West Virginia. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for unsettled weather to continue through Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms. 2) Drier air may briefly return by Thursday, but more showers and thunderstorms are possible to end the week. A low pressure system will head eastward across Virginia on Wednesday to keep conditions unsettled with ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Thunder chances will diminish towards Wednesday night, and the showers may eventually subside by Thursday morning as weak high pressure passes to the north. However, more moisture should return towards Thursday night as another low pressure system crosses the Southeast. Although the models still show notable discrepancies, the odds of unsettled weather for the Appalachian Mountains appear to be higher for Friday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms might linger into Saturday as the low pressure system heads to the East Coast. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Saturday... A short wave over Michigan will generate multiple bands of shower and isolated thunderstorms that will track southeast across the region. Good consensus of timing with a large number of the Hi-Res and convective-allowing models. As an example this brings the probability of precipitation through KBLF from 18Z/2PM through 00Z/8PM and through KDAN from 22Z/6PM through 03Z/11PM. The most likely location for thunderstorms is below the cold air aloft, mainly across West Virginia and the northern half of Virginia.Used this timing for the TAFs to put in either VCTS of -SHRA for this afternoon and evening. Drier air at mid and upper levels comes into the area behind this short wave tonight and Sunday. Expect MVFR low clouds to develop overnight. This includes at KLWB and KBLF. These clouds will erode Sunday morning before 14Z/10AM. The winds will turn to the northwest behind the cold front associated with the short wave. As mixing begins on Sunday winds will gust into the 20 to 30 mph, especially at higher elevations. Wind speeds lower tonight but do not completely decouple. With that small amount of mixing and the upslope cloud cover, have left out any fog overnight. Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility. Extended Aviation Outlook... VFR conditions are expected Sunday afternoon through Monday under dry, high pressure. Precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities return to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday due to a low pressure system approaching from the central United States. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...AMS/BMG