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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211106
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost possible this morning, with a Frost Advisory in
  effect for areas north and east of a Nevada to Springfield
  line from 2am to 8am.

- Widespread frost potential again Monday morning, especially
  for wind protected areas.

- 20-60% rain chances Tuesday with highest and more widespread chances
  along the cold front in the eastern Ozarks, decreasing to the
  south and west.

- 30-60% chances of rain beginning early Thursday morning and persisting
  into the weekend. There will be the potential for some strong
  to severe storms on Friday and Friday night.

- Slow warming trend back to near normal early in the week
  becoming above normal into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A surface high pressure is building over the central Plains
underneath an upper-level trough that will move across the area
during the day on Sunday. This high is bringing us light northerly
winds, with mid- and high-level clouds expected to clear around
sunrise. Temperatures will dip as low as 33-39 degrees Sunday
morning, conveniently reaching their lowest temperature right
around the time the clouds are expected to clear. These
conditions could be favorable enough to see frost form in the
areas with the lowest temperatures, assuming the clouds clear as
predicted. The areas with the most favorable frost conditions
are northeast of the intersection of I-49 and I-44, especially
in areas protected from wind with locally elevated RH values.
Thus, a Frost Advisory is in effect for this region until 8:00AM
local time. Temperatures will warm into the upper-50s to low
60s today as clouds clear out, bringing us some sunshine. Winds
may also become gusty for a few hours in the afternoon, up to
20mph.

Frost is expected again on Monday morning, but confidence is
higher in more widespread coverage and even the favorability of
frost formation. With clear skies and calm winds setting up a
good radiational cooling night, and dew points as much as 10
degrees below freezing, frost appears imminent. There is a 40%
or greater chance of temperatures of 37 or lower across our
entire CWA, with the areas of 40-50% chances contained to a few
isolated pockets, and much of the I-44 corridor progging 100%
chances of temperatures of 37 or less. Thus, another Frost
Advisory will probably need to be issued for Monday morning as
well. After the morning frost recedes, Monday will be dominated
by clear skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s. Elevated
fire weather could be a concern, with RH values of 25-35%
expected Monday afternoon with winds between 10-15mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The synoptic pattern will start cooking as the week progresses,
picking up an additional wave number as it becomes more active. As
the high moves east across the Ozarks, southerly flow will bring
warmer temperatures for Tuesday, reaching low to mid-70s. A low
pressure system will dig from Manitoba into the Great Lakes
Tuesday morning, and the associated cold front that surges south
will bring rain chances back to the region with it. The
southernmost edge of the cold front (aka where it "ends") will
likely reach central Missouri, but the western and southern
extents of the front will determine where the highest PoPs are.
Right now, it seems like the beefier part of the air mass will
remain in central Missouri, and the highest chances of rain
(50-60%) will be northeast of a Warsaw-Lebanon-Houston line
along the front. South and southwest of that line sees a steep
decrease in chances of rain, with 20-40% chances of rain for the
bulk of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

After that, an upper-level trough will eject into the Plains
from the Desert Southwest on Thursday. A low-level jet of
40-50kts will develop in the Plains late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, advecting moisture and warm air to the area.
Within the warm sector of the ejecting cyclone, showers and some
thunderstorms will develop, persisting through the day on
Thursday and into Friday. As the cyclone tracks to our north, a
cold front will push into the area, and with NBM CAPE values
already near 2000 J/kg along the front, strong to severe storms
will be possible with the frontal passage Friday night.

Beyond that, temperatures will remain seasonal in the upper 60s to
mid-70s through Thursday, warming to mid- to upper 70s on Friday and
maybe even into the 80s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mid level cloud cover was in the process of moving out and we
should become sunny for much of the day at the TAF sites. Will
see some wind gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range from late morning
through the afternoon with winds becoming light and variable
this evening and overnight as surface high pressure pushes
overhead.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-078>083-090>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Lindenberg