445
FXUS64 KSJT 031906
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
206 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...Severe thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and
evening...

A very moist and unstable airmass persists across the area again
this afternoon. A dryline is located across far West Texas, with
a residual outflow boundary bisecting the forecast area from
northwest to southeast. Strong to extreme instability exists
across the area per latest SPC mesoanalysis, with MLCAPE`s
3500-4500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong (0-6
km shear around 25 kts) but sufficient for supercells and intense
updrafts given the degree of instability. As of 2 PM, visible
satellite imagery already shows an agitated cumulus field across
western portions of the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley.
Latest HRRR develops convection across this area by 21Z (4pm
local), with storms expanding in coverage and tracking east across
the area during the evening hours. Very large to possibly giant
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.
As storms progress eastward with time, the main hazard will
transition to damaging winds, although large hail will still be
a concern. In addition to the severe threat, precipitable water
values near 1.5 inches will support torrential downpours, which
may lead to some localized flooding.

The airmass will remain very moist and unstable again for
Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough
approaching from the west. Models still show fairly widespread
thunderstorm development across West Central Texas by afternoon
along the weak front, which should be situated across the Big
Country. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage by late
afternoon and early evening. There is yet another risk for severe
storms tomorrow, primarily south of the surface cold front and
maximized across western portions of the Concho Valley and farther
west across the Permian Basin, where SPC now has an enhanced
risk. A slight risk exists across the remainder of West Central
Texas. Shear is expected to be stronger tomorrow, especially
during the evening hours, which will support tornadoes, some
possibly strong within the enhanced risk area. Otherwise, large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible mainly
through the evening hours, with damaging winds becoming the main
threat overnight as storms push eastward with time. Heavy rainfall
is again possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, which may result in
some localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Severe weather and heavy rainfall will continue to be the main
issued through the weekend, ahead of unusually hot conditions for
next week.

Air mass remains very unstable for Saturday ahead of a weak cold
front and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Most
models depict fairly widespread thunderstorm initiation by
Saturday afternoon across the Permian Basin and South Plains and
then quickly rolling into West Central Texas late in the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Widespread convection may
end up decreasing the severe threat, but increasing the heavy
rainfall threat. Right now, appears the greatest severe threat
will be across the Concho Valley west into the Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos ahead of the front and in an area that may see a
little more sun before the storms develop.

By Sunday, multiple rounds of convection may begin to take its
toll on the air mass and make it a little harder to destabilize.
Widespread convection once again though with the remnants of the
frontal boundary draped across the area. Highs may still in the
upper 70s and lower 80s across the area.

Rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday will begin to add up, and
portions of the area will see very heavy rainfall. Where is the
question, and does the heavy rainfall occur on areas that have
already seen some decent totals over the last week. No Flash Flood
Watch at this point, but after we see where todays convection ends
up, we may need to consider something.

Main upper level trough pushes across the Southern Plains by
Monday afternoon, leaving a ridge aloft to set up across the area.
Latest model blends are showing mid to upper 90s by Wednesday and
Thursday as dry and hot pattern prevails.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Lingering MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR within
the next hour or two (KABI and KBBD), with VFR prevailing through
the afternoon hours. Still expecting strong to severe convection
to develop across the area mainly this evening. Timed convection
with latest hi-res guidance and may need to refine a bit more
based on trends. Convection will end from west to east late this
evening, with KBBD and KJCT seeing storms exit by 05Z. Stratus is
expected to develop once again after midnight. Highest confidence
is currently across the southern terminals and will include MVFR
ceilings after 06Z. Convection possible again tomorrow but is
expected to hold off until the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  79  61  77 /  60  80  90  50
San Angelo  63  86  61  78 /  70  60  90  50
Junction    67  88  64  81 /  30  30  80  60
Brownwood   63  80  62  77 /  40  60  90  60
Sweetwater  63  79  61  75 /  50  80  90  40
Ozona       64  84  62  78 /  50  40  90  50
Brady       65  82  62  76 /  30  60  90  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24