217
FXUS01 KWBC 030747
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024

Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2024 - 12Z Sun May 05 2024

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Friday and the Southern Plains on
Saturday...

...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern Plains...

A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will
slowly dissipate on Friday while a new front develops over parts
of the Central Plains/Great Basin. Upper-level energy over the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and very moist air will
aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Western/Central Gulf Coast through Saturday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
 Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through
Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a few tornadoes. Further, there will be an additional risk of hail
two inches or greater over the area.

Moreover, the developing front over western Kansas will cause a
second area of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central High Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Furthermore, on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of the front extending from the Great Lakes to the
Lower Mississippi Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will march
eastward into the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.

By Saturday, the new front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes
to the Southern High Plains. Moisture pooling along the boundary
will create showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over central
Texas and parts of southeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains from Saturday into Sunday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Similarly, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Saturday
into Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an
additional risk of hail two inches or greater over the area. The
showers and thunderstorms will also develop along and ahead of the
front from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.

A dissipating front will move over the Appalachians into the
Southeast on Saturday. Rain showers will develop over parts of the
Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, showers and
thunderstorms will extend from parts of the Tennessee Valley to
the Southeast.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will
create light snow over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern
High Plains on Friday, ending by Friday night. Moreover, a front
over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the Pacific
Northwest overnight Friday, moving inland to the Northern
Intermountain Region and Southern California by Sunday morning.

The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest
Coast overnight Friday, expanding into Northern California by
Saturday morning. Light snow will develop over parts of the higher
elevations of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. As the front
moves inland, rain expands into Southern California on Saturday
afternoon. Heavy snow will develop over parts of the Sierra Nevada
Mountains overnight Saturday into Sunday. By Sunday morning, snow
will move over parts of the Great Basin.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$