598
FXUS62 KTBW 082350
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
750 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The dry air aloft has helped to limit convective activity once
again today with only a few isolated showers early this evening
along the sea breeze as it moved inland over southeastern Pasco,
northeastern Hillsborough, and western Polk Counties. For the
remainder of the night expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
across the area with lows only dipping to around 70 to the mid
70s. Thursday looks like another warm and rather humid day, but
the dry air aloft will persist and winds will turn to southwest
and become breezy so not expecting any convection in our area.
Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, but could see some
patches of MVFR ceilings late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Southwest winds this evening will shift to southerly at 5 to 10
knots overnight and then increase to 10 to 15 knots late Thursday
morning before shifting to southwest during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Winds generally remain 15 knots or less and out of the south to
southwest for the rest of the work week. A front will start to
work its way through late Friday which will bring a chance for a
few showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front winds will shift
to northwest Saturday and then northeast on Sunday as high
pressure moves across the southeast states.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The big story for the rest of the work week will be the heat away
from the coastal areas. Ridging over the area is causing some drier
air and keeping showers away while also turning the heat up. Inland
areas of the CWA can expected highs in the mid to upper 90`s today
through Friday.

As we go through the day on Friday a weakening cold front will be
pushing into the area. The best chance to see some significant
showers and storms will be over the Nature Coast in the morning
and early afternoon hours. Once it works through the rest of
Florida in the evening and overnight hours much of the shower
activity will be gone, but an isolated storm can not be ruled.

This front will only drop our high temperatures a few degrees for
the weekend, so we can still expect highs in the upper 80`s to
mid 90`s. The big change will be Sunday morning where most of us
will wake up comfortably in the 60`s. However, temperatures will
warm up quickly so if you sleep in you will miss it.

Our next frontal system looks to try to push through during the
middle of next week. However, ahead of the front we will see
added moisture which will aid in some showers and storms with the
better chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Our main concern over the next few days will be critical RHs. We
will have isolated spots of critical RHs throughout the work week.
However, the more widespread critical RHs will be after the
frontal passage late on Friday. Saturday the lowest RHs should
remain in the interior, but Sunday we should see critical RHs
through all of our CWA as winds turn northeasterly. Winds will be
light so no need for Red Flag and moisture will return early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  77  88 /   0   0   0  20
FMY  74  93  75  90 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  74  95  74  93 /  10   0   0  20
SRQ  75  87  76  89 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  70  92  71  90 /   0   0   0  40
SPG  77  87  79  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Close
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme