084
FXUS64 KTSA 030148
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
848 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered showers and storms have developed this evening
across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front
that currently stretches from near Miami to near Oilton.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to persist through
much of the night as the front pushes to the south and a
mid-level shortwave moves across southeast Oklahoma. A few
storms could become strong to marginally severe with large hail
the main concern. Have updated pops slightly for the remainder of
tonight. Otherwise, current forecast for tonight is on track.



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The unsettled pattern will remain through the rest of the period,
with near daily shower and storm chances into the next week. some
severe potential will exists across the region, but particulars
will depend on the evolution of previous day`s convection so the
details will be ironed out with future forecasts.

Friday looks to be the most tame day of the forecast period, with
most locations staying dry as a dryer airmass filters in behind
the cold front this evening. Lingering showers and storms will
remain possible across southeast Oklahoma and into the terrain of
western Arkansas where the front will stall through the day
Friday. Moisture will begin to return Friday evening as the weak
boundary moves back northward. Another complex of showers and
storms forming across western Kansas Friday evening could make its
way into northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning in a decaying state,
but periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially across northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Another
disturbance is progged to advance northeastward across the
Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, bringing widespread
rain chances to the area through much of the day Sunday. Showers
and storms should increase Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma
and move eastward into western Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Again,
severe potential will be low given the background environment but
anytime there are storms in May there is potential for some
embedded strong to severe storms.

As we head into next week, strong zonal flow aloft develops as a
lead shortwave trough ejects out of the Rockies and into the
Central and Northern Plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary
will then drop southeastward and likely set up camp somewhere
across the Southern or Central Plains while a dryline extends
southward across western to central Oklahoma and into Texas.
Periodic ripples in the flow aloft are forecast to advance across
the Plains states throughout the rest of the week. This, combined
with the strong flow aloft and continued low level moisture
advection into the region will create a scenario with at least
daily isolated to scattered storm development within the warm
sector. The large instability and persistent strong deep layer
shear would support severe weather with any storms that develop.
Mid level capping will limit the coverage of storms through the
first part of the week, likely confined to areas of increased
synoptic forcing where any speed max can increase convergence
along the dryline. More widespread, organized severe potential
will be probable during this time, but those details will come in
the coming days with better agreement on timing and location of
the various vort maxes that track through the region.
Nevertheless, be prepared for another round of springtime storms
across the Plains next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma early this evening,
currently located near a Pawnee/Welch line. Scattered thunderstorms
will continue this evening ahead of boundary with a modestly
unstable air-mass in place. PWATs around 1.4 inches will produce
brief heavy rain, likely reducing visibilities below 1 mile in
the stronger storms. Front stalls late tonight into Friday morning
with lower IFR ceilings developing at most locations, including
the potential for patchy dense fog in NW AR. Ceiling heights will
slowly rise through day Friday with VFR conditions forecast by mid
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  80  62  78 /  60  10  30  70
FSM   64  82  64  81 /  50  30  20  70
MLC   62  82  65  80 /  60  20  20  70
BVO   56  79  59  76 /  30   0  30  70
FYV   60  80  61  80 /  50  30  20  70
BYV   60  78  60  79 /  50  20  20  70
MKO   62  80  62  77 /  60  10  20  70
MIO   60  79  61  76 /  60  10  20  70
F10   61  79  63  78 /  50  10  20  70
HHW   63  81  64  79 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12