758
FXUS64 KTSA 041736
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1236 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Latest surface observations/analysis depicts a weak cold front
positioned just south of the I-44 corridor in northeast OK. The
cold front will continue to progress at a slow pace southeastward
through the afternoon. Radar imagery shows showers and
thunderstorms are already beginning to form in the vicinity and
just ahead of the frontal boundary. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be possible through the afternoon, especially along
the front. With 0-6km shear values fairly weak, not anticipating
widespread organized severe thunderstorms, though there is enough
lift and instability to produce a few storms with robust
updrafts, capable of producing small to marginally severe hail
and gusty winds. Additionally, storms today will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall. With recent rainfall over the past week
or so, even brief periods/bursts of heavy rain could lead to minor
flooding and possibly flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for all the CWA today. Otherwise, not too many changes were
made to this morning`s forecast package.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Focus will turn to tonight and Sunday when chances for
widespread showers and storms increase in association with an
upper disturbance lifts northeast from Texas into Oklahoma
and Arkansas. The severe threat will remain low, however higher
areal coverage along with heavier rainfall threat will exist, and
will increase flood potential- especially across areas that are
already saturated. The previously issued flood watch will be in
effect from 7am today through 7pm Sunday. Rain and storms will
diminish in areal coverage later in the day Sunday, which will
keep most of Sunday night and part of Monday quiet. A strong upper
trough axis will swing out the mountain west region and into the
high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to
develop to the west along the dryline late in the day and advance
east into northeast OK Monday evening/night. There is some
uncertainty to the southern extent of the line as it enters E OK,
so will keep the highest PoPs across NE OK and NW AR Monday night.
At this time, all modes of severe are possible, but this will come
into better focus as the event draws closer. After a lull Tuesday,
additional storms are expected with the cold front that moves into
the area Wednesday. Frontal timing suggest better storm chances
will be across SE OK and NW AR Wednesday and Thursday. The slow
moving upper low across the upper CONUS may move far enough east
to push the boundary through the area and allow cooler and drier
air to filter into the area by Friday.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Ongoing storms over north central OK are likely to weaken as they
spread toward NE OK terminals, however additional showers and
storms may expand later this morning along the trailing cold
front. The forecast will account for this possibility with at
least isolated to scattered convection spreading eastward through
the early to late morning hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings are also
possible generally area wide late tonight through the morning.
Storm chances continue through the day with the focus being the
remnant outflow / weak cold front. More organized and widespread
convection is expected into the region this evening into tomorrow
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front continues to slowly push southeastward across eastern
OK and northwest AR early this afternoon. Convection along the
frontal boundary has been mostly isolated to scattered in nature.
Nonetheless, periodic and intermittent MVFR/VFR ceilings will be
possible, especially for the northwest AR and southeast OK
terminals where the greatest probabilities of
showers/thunderstorms exist through the remainder of the
afternoon. More organized and widespread convection is still
forecast to move into the region this evening and persist through
the rest of the forecast period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  60  72  61 /  50  70  90  20
FSM   81  65  74  64 /  50  60 100  30
MLC   81  64  74  64 /  60  80 100  20
BVO   74  54  71  56 /  30  60  80  20
FYV   80  60  74  60 /  60  60  90  40
BYV   79  60  71  60 /  50  50  80  40
MKO   78  62  71  61 /  60  70 100  20
MIO   75  56  70  59 /  40  50  80  30
F10   79  60  72  61 /  60  80  90  20
HHW   78  65  73  64 /  40  70  90  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...67