879
FXUS64 KTSA 042339
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front is making southward progress across parts of
northeast Oklahoma, positioned north of I-44 as seen in both radar
and surface observations. Widely scattered thunderstorms have been
ongoing for most of the day to the south of the front, but a more
widespread batch of showers and storms are approaching east
central and southeast Oklahoma from the west in response to a weak
upper disturbance. An earlier line of storms produced very
efficient rainfall with 3 inch an hour rates across southern
Okfuskee County, with a quick response in our flash flood
monitoring tools due in part to the saturated grounds. As the
aforementioned storms to the west approach, additional flash
flooding will remain a concern. In addition, isolated severe
weather, featuring a large hail and damaging wind threat, remains
a concern given the available instability and increasing deep
layer shear. Toward daybreak, even more widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely to move into parts of eastern Oklahoma in
response to a more robust upper level wave approaching from West
Texas overnight. Flash flooding will be an increasing threat as a
result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the
area Sunday morning, shifting to the north and east with time
along with the movement of the upper level support. Some
redevelopment potential may exist during the late afternoon hours,
depending on how much instability can develop behind the earlier
batch of storms. Flash flooding will be the main concern, however,
given the widespread rains that could be locally heavy and the
antecedent conditions.

Attention then turns to the potential for significant severe
weather late Monday and into Monday night. Some data are
indicating potential for showers and thunderstorms across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas early in the day in
response to increasing mid level moisture. However, do not think
it will be substantial enough to warrant the high POPs offered by
the NBM during the day and as a result, have cut back on those.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as late afternoon
but more likely early to mid evening along and ahead of an
approaching cold front/dryline. Areas north of I-40 continue to
look most likely to see thunderstorms given the main upper system
is located well north of the area. Even in areas further south,
however, the environment supports a high end severe threat with
any storm that develops. This threat looks to continue into the
overnight, waning toward Tuesday morning.

Additional mainly afternoon and evening storms remain expected
through mid week until the main upper level system finally shifts
east. These storms will also pose a severe weather threat,
although specifics may depend on how things evolve earlier in the
week. Expect cool and dry weather to move in late in the week and
into the weekend, likely a very welcome break for all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024


Initially VFR conditions will quickly lower to IFR late tonight
and early Sunday morning as widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms overspread the area. Conditions may begin to improve
by late Sunday afternoon, especially at KMLC where ceilings may
lift to MVFR after the rain ends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  70  61  82 /  70  90  20  30
FSM   65  73  63  83 /  60 100  30  30
MLC   63  72  64  82 /  80 100  20  30
BVO   54  68  58  81 /  60  90  20  30
FYV   60  72  62  82 /  50  90  40  30
BYV   60  70  60  80 /  50  90  50  30
MKO   61  70  61  80 /  70 100  20  30
MIO   56  68  60  80 /  50  80  30  30
F10   60  70  61  80 /  80  90  20  30
HHW   65  73  64  79 /  80  90  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05