Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 141103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
603 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Severe weather potential will ramp up as early as midday today,
mainly along and southeast of Interstate 44. Storm initiation is
expected southwest of our forecast area as early as 10-11 am,
with storms expanding east and northeast into our forecast area by
around or just after noon. Initial storms will have the potential
to produce large to very large hail and damaging winds, and will
also have some tornado potential. By mid to late afternoon,
storms will have congealed into lines or clusters, with damaging
winds, more marginally severe hail, and isolated tornadoes being
the main threat. The greatest tornado threat will be from
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas where wind fields are
most supportive of rotating storms. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible, with the potential for some localized flooding
issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A cold front will be near Interstate 44 by the start of this
period, and will accelerate southeast through the evening hours.
Storm coverage and intensity will lessen with time this evening,
with most of the activity exiting the area by midnight.

Cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for Friday
with some lingering cloudiness at least through the morning. A
brief warmup will occur Saturday ahead of the next cold front due
to arrive Saturday night and early Sunday morning. A few showers
will be possible Saturday night across parts of southeast
Oklahoma, but rainfall amounts look to remain on the light side.

Cooler temperatures will return Sunday and Monday, with a freeze
possible in some places Monday morning. The return of south winds
will bring a quick warmup Tuesday ahead of the next storm system
that may affect the area by next Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Low clouds are filling in across the area this morning, with most
terminals reporting CIGs of 1.5-4 kft at this time. Breezy
southerly winds of 10-20 kts are also continuing for most
terminals. Some model guidance shows scattered showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm developing the next couple of hours,
favoring a track near KMLC and the terminals in northwest AR.

By mid morning breezy southerly winds will increase with gusts of
20-25 kts for many areas. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
during the late morning over OK and may impact the Tulsa area
terminals or KMLC, spreading into northwest AR in the early
afternoon. These could be strong to severe with the potential for
large hail and strong and erratic winds. There could be lower CIGs
and visibility reductions with any storms.

A cold front late this evening will switch winds to northerly and
end precipitation chances. This front will first pass KBVO near
0Z, moving through all other terminals by about 5Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  46  63  42 /  50  20   0   0
FSM   79  53  66  44 /  90  90   0   0
MLC   78  49  64  43 /  90  70   0  10
BVO   78  44  63  38 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   75  46  60  38 /  90  70   0   0
BYV   77  46  59  39 /  90  70   0   0
MKO   78  48  63  41 /  80  60   0   0
MIO   77  45  60  39 /  60  30   0   0
F10   78  47  63  43 /  70  50   0   0
HHW   78  53  66  46 /  80  80  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06


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