Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 140532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Isolated thunderstorms developed earlier this evening ahead of
the dryline to the west of Tulsa and have now tracked to the
northeast of Tulsa. These storms have shown a weakening trend
and that is expected to continue over the next couple of hours
as the storms eventually diminish or exit the area. Additional
showers and storms will be possible late tonight across southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas as isentropic lift increases.
Have only made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight
to better reflect current trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Through the morning hours the surface low pressure axis is
forecast to move into the region with the dryline moving into
Northeast Oklahoma. There remains some uncertainty with just how
far east this boundary can travel with the 60 deg dewpoints
holding over the CWA. Latest indications are that by early
afternoon this boundary could be near Highway 75 in Northeast
Oklahoma. The drier air behind this boundary could create areas of
limited fire weather danger.

Meanwhile...attention remains with locations ahead of the
boundary Thursday afternoon and evening. The dryline is progged to
remain in Northeast Oklahoma and wait to be overtaken by the cold
front Thursday evening. Increasing instability interacting with
daytime heating and moisture across the CWA will aid in
thunderstorm initiation mainly within the warm section south of
Interstate 44 starting around early afternoon...give or take an
hour or so. This activity is forecast to start out as more
discrete cells lifting northeast within mean mid level flow and
spread into Northwest Arkansas. All modes of severe including
large hail...damaging winds...and a limited tornado potential are
possible. The greater tornado potential is currently progged
across Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas as shear vectors
are more favorable over these locations...as shear vectors are
more parallel to each other and the front in Northeast Oklahoma.

Storm development ahead of the front is expected to continue
through Thursday evening with potential shifting southeast through
the CWA with the movement of the cold front. Additional storm
development also looks possible along the front within a band of
frontogenetic forcing. Storms along the front look to be more
linear with large hail and locally damaging winds the main
threats. The limited tornado potential should remain with any
discrete cells ahead of the boundary through the evening hours.
Latest indications show the majority of the storms should be
exiting the CWA around 06z Friday...with any lingering activity
exiting by early Friday morning.

Cooler conditions and northerly winds are forecast Friday behind
the exiting mid level wave. A secondary wave and associated
frontal boundary are forecast to spread back into the region over
the weekend with this second front moving into the CWA Sunday. In
response...slightly warmer temps are forecast Saturday before
cooling again Sunday. The cooler conditions look to be short lived
as southerly flow returns Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of another
shortwave that could move into the Plains late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Scattered clouds in the 4-6 kft layer with breezy southerly winds
gusting to 15-20 kts will continue for most areas tonight. Areas
of LLWS will develop once again the next few hours and continue
through dawn. Some model guidance shows some scattered showers
near KMLC and northwest AR between 12-15Z tomorrow morning but
confidence in this outcome was low so it was not included in the
TAFs at this time.

During the day Thursday breezy southerly winds will continue with
gusts of 20-25 kts for many areas. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop during the late morning over OK and may impact the Tulsa
area terminals or KMLC, spreading into northwest AR in the early
afternoon. These could be strong to severe with the potential for
large hail and strong and erratic winds. Additionally, CIGS may
develop by morning for most areas, generally in the 1.5-4 kft
layer.

A cold front tomorrow evening will switch winds to northerly and
end precipitation chances in the evening. This front will first
pass KBVO near 0Z, moving through all other terminals by about 5Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  47  62  43 /  40  50   0   0
FSM   80  56  66  46 /  80  80  10   0
MLC   79  54  65  47 /  70  60  10  10
BVO   79  44  62  40 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   77  50  60  40 /  80  80  10   0
BYV   79  51  59  41 /  80  80  10   0
MKO   79  51  62  44 /  70  60   0   0
MIO   79  46  59  40 /  50  50   0   0
F10   79  49  62  45 /  60  50   0   0
HHW   79  58  67  52 /  80  80  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06


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