741
FXUS65 KTWC 290915
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 AM MST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Sunny skies, dry conditions, and above average temperatures are
expected this week. Afternoon breeziness is forecast most days,
especially Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mid-level heights will continue to rise today, ushering in the
beginning of a period of warmer than average high temperatures.
Forecast highs this afternoon are generally in the 80s across the
lower elevations and in the 60s and 70s in the mountains. Highs
tomorrow should be several degrees warmer, likely exceeding 90 in
Tucson. On Wednesday and Thursday, broad troughing will develop
over the western CONUS, modestly tightening a pressure gradient
over southern Arizona. The main impact this trough will have is to
nudge temperatures down a few degrees and create breezy winds
both days, with Wednesday afternoon likely seeing the stronger
winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures rise
again following this trough going into the weekend. A dry southern
stream shortwave and jet streak should pass to the south through
the weekend, which again may just cause some breeziness each day
with no real signal for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 30/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions and SFC wind less than 12 kts thru the
forecast period. SFC wind favoring a SWLY thru NWLY direction during
the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-7 degrees above normal
into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less most
of this week, with typical afternoon gustiness due to strong surface
heating. The strongest winds will be on Wednesday, with southwest to
west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Min RH values in
the valleys will generally be in the single digits this week, with
values in the mountains at 12-18 percent.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Zell
Fire Weather....Zell

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