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000
FXUS65 KTWC 140917
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds today and Monday as a weather system
passes north of the area. Another day with temperatures several
degrees above average before cooling Monday. After the brief cool
down, high pressure will push temperatures back to well above
average later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strong low near the California coast is pushing
slowly eastward this morning, with trajectories still ultimately
taking it through the Great Basin north of our area over the next
48 hours. Breezy to windy gradient winds under the low, but
otherwise dry this far south with precip chances remaining north
of our area. Strongest winds should be east of Tucson on Monday
afternoon, where we may end up needing a wind advisory for
portions of Cochise and Graham counties.

After brief cooling Monday, high pressure will build in from the
west coast and push temperatures back to well above average by
Wednesday and Thursday. Still looking at the possibility of the
first 95 for Tucson metro Thursday. A broad zonal flow should mean
a couple of degrees of cooling next weekend, but still above
average and seasonably dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20-25k ft. Light SFC winds this morning, then
SWLY winds pick up after 14/18Z at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30
kts, diminishing after 15/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds today and tomorrow as a weather system
passes north of the area. One more day with temperatures several
degrees above average before cooling Monday. Minimum relative
humidity 6 to 15 percent today. Modest improvements Monday to RH
with the exception of eastern Cochise County. Monday will see the
strongest winds with speeds 15-30 mph east of Tucson. Some areas
could see critical to near critical fire weather conditions Monday
east of Tucson, but fire danger and ERCs are still low for this
time of year.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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