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000
FNUS73 KUNR 121005
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Victoria RX...USFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
405 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Much warmer and dry weather expected today through
the weekend. Winds will be southerly today with southwesterly
transport winds and good mixing. Daytime RH will fall to around 20%
this afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions.

Overnight RH recovery tonight into Saturday morning will be poor
(~40%) along with southwesterly winds. Slightly lower daytime
RH is forecast for Saturday afternoon (~15%) with northwesterly
winds and excellent smoke dispersal. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
is possible across the Black Hills Saturday afternoon. Main threat
would be lightning and gusty, erratic winds with any storms.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph. Strongest on exposed
                    south facing slopes.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......7300 to 7800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........40-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph. Downslope/down-
                    valley winds in sheltered areas and north
                    facing slopes.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......13200 to 13700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...SE
Requested by...Wayne Yanders
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2409471.4/UNR
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeremy.dalman@usda.gov,wayne.yanders@usda.gov,thomas.roerick@usda.gov,ryan.flynn@usda.gov