Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 232346
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
646 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Tonight.

The final convective band associated with tropical depression
Cindy has pushed to the I-59 corridor this afternoon. The air
mass is moderately unstable with decent shear and helicity east of
the band to promote a few rotating storms. Because surface winds
have veered more to a southwest direction, the wind flow has
become more unidirectional and lessened the low level directional
shear. This has lessened the tornado threat as the the convective
mode becomes more linear. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is
still a big concern with this activity. The convective band
should exit east Alabama by 6 pm and any remaining counties still
under a tornado watch will likely be cleared. The heavier rainfall
should also be east of the current flash flood watch and it will
be allowed to expire at 7 pm. Even though there is an upstream MCS
over northern Arkansas, this system will likely stay west of
Alabama as it tracks towards the Mississippi river. As the
remnants of Cindy pulls off to the northeast towards the mid-
Atlantic states, a cold front will get pulled southward tonight
and into extreme north Alabama by sunrise Saturday. The presence
of the cold front will keep scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across north Alabama overnight.

58/rose


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Line of storms moving through the MGM area at 00z issuance.
TOI will see the onset of gusty winds and rain in the next few
hours. Other TAF sites are dealing with lingering light rain and
CIGs hovering around the MVFR and VFR border. expect light rain to
move out and a break for a few hours tonight ahead of another
round of showers. Unsure of the timing with the next round at this
time, so have Prob30 towards the end of the issuance for northern
sites.
Cigs could drop during the morning hours after this light rain
moves out, but should lift ahead of next round.
Winds generally 5-10kts, but wouldn`t be surprised to see some
isolated gusts. Confidence is low on where the gusty winds will
show up with this departing line of storms, so have not mentioned
it in any specific site.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances will continue through Saturday with rain chances
decreasing for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front. There are
no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  83  65  83  60 /  90  50  20  10  10
Anniston    72  82  67  82  61 /  90  60  20  10  10
Birmingham  73  82  66  83  63 /  80  60  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  73  83  67  85  64 /  80  60  20  10  10
Calera      73  83  68  83  63 /  80  70  30  10  10
Auburn      73  83  69  82  65 /  60  80  30  20  10
Montgomery  75  86  72  85  65 /  70  80  40  20  10
Troy        75  86  71  85  65 /  40  80  40  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Bibb...Blount...Chilton...Coosa...Etowah...Fayette...
Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...
Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.

&&

$$


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