Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 292056
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
256 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.

WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MONDAY MAY REMAIN QUITE CHILLY AS STRONG
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REMAIN BELOW
40F IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. MUCH COLDER WEATHER MAY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z IN THE
WEST AND 3Z IN THE EAST...WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE SOUTH AT THIS
TIME. A TEMPO MAY BE NEEDED WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  49  24  52  34 /  30   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    36  51  26  55  37 /  30   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  36  51  27  55  39 /  20   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  38  54  27  56  41 /  10   0   0   0  20
CALERA      37  53  29  55  40 /  20   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      38  53  29  55  41 /  20   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  40  58  29  59  39 /  20   0   0   0  10
TROY        40  57  28  59  37 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/16





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