Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 282015
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ONE AGAIN EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ON CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS HIGH TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY
METRO AREAS. AS WITH TODAY...NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE THUNDERSTORM
TRIGGERS AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES RULE THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE
BROADBRUSH POPS FOR TOMORROW...AND LET THE MORNING SHIFT TOMORROW
TRY TO IDENTIFY THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES.

AS WE DID EARLIER THIS SUMMER...I THINK WE`LL TAKE THE HEAT
ADVISORY ONE DAY AT A TIME WITH THIS GO `ROUND AS WELL. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES PLACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN A WEAKNESS
IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS SHOULD (SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. IF ANYTHING...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. SO EVEN IF AFTERNOON AIR TEMPS ARE
NOT ALL THAT LOWER...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO AMEND
THRU THE DAY FOR ANY TS IMPACTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  94  75  92  71 /  30  40  30  30  20
ANNISTON    74  93  75  93  73 /  30  40  30  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  75  95  76  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  75  97  76  95  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
CALERA      75  94  75  93  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
AUBURN      74  94  74  92  74 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        75  97  75  94  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$


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