Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 272346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE DIFFERENT MECHANISMS WORKING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON TO
PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. AN MCV FROM EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO PUSH ENE
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO OUR SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND TRAINING. THE HRRR HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY...AND USED IT WITH CURRENT
TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
WHERE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE FOR PART OF THE AREA...AND MOST
LIKELY IN THE WEST GIVEN THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN STORMS ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST AS INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
FORECAST TRENDS AND DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING WEAK TROUGHING IN ITS PLACE
AS A MESSY RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH RE-AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE TROUGH LOOK TO STAY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH ACROSS THE AREA...THESE
IMPULSES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ASSIST WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. A PIECE OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN LINE IS ON TOP OF BHM OVER TO ASN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT BY 2Z AND RAIN
WILL END BY 4 TO 5Z. WITH ALL THIS RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY BY
WITHER FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN
INDICATES SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES...SO
INCLUDED THAT THROUGH 15 TO 17Z. SOME CLEARING AFTER 18Z AND THEN
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 19 TO 21Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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