Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 182358
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE MASS OF RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IS
NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST
OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ERODED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...GUIDANCE IS ALL IN AGREEMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF RAIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS ADDITIONAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
FILTER IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...SO WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

73


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
GENERALLY ENDING. GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AS THE PRECIPITATION
EXITS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KTOI OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THESE CONDITIONS FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. ALL OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 18Z
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

07

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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