Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 202344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF
DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR
VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS
STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH
IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL END BY MID EVENING. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE
APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR







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