Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261144
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT TIMES BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH A MORE NOTABLE AREA OF
SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO JUST EAST OF TORONTO. THESE
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER LAKE
ONTARIO HOLDS TOGETHER IT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NEAR ROCHESTER DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON WHAT REMAINS OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE TO SUPPORT ANY ASCENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL CLOUD DECK. GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN STRONGER CHANNELLED FLOW COMING UP THE LAKE PLAIN AND
WEAKER...SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INLAND. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY...WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO
WESTERN NY...WITH WARM FRONTAL CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL IMPROVE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMA WITH DPVA
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAXIMIZE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

CLOUD COVER AND MIXING ALONG WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOWN TOWARD
THE PA STATE LINE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING
AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
MORNING...WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT...BUT CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN
VFR.

BY LATE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BEHIND THE THICKER WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FORM FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN SLOWLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE AT FIRST. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM
MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT BY IN LARGE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBY.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS...MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




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