Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 290004
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
804 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm frontal boundary will push towards our region tonight, then
will linger over the region through the weekend. This will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, although much of the time
it will remain dry and mild.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 8 pm...regional satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds
continuing to spread across the region from southwest to northeast...
in advance of an approaching warm front over the Ohio Valley. The
initial band of light rain showers/sprinkles well out ahead of this
boundary continues to weaken as it drifts into the western Southern
Tier and encounters the much drier airmass over New York State...
though we still could see a few sprinkles or very light showers reach
the ground across the Southern Tier this evening.

Later on in the night...the warm front will push a bit closer toward
our region...spreading in a decent likelihood of showers northward
into the western Southern Tier during the overnight hours...with
lower-end chances of showers extending as far north as Lake Ontario.

On Saturday...most models stall the warm front near the Pennsylvania
border...with the best chance for additional showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms during Saturday continuing to lie along the Southern
Tier, with a much better chance for a completely dry day closer to
Lake Ontario and the North country.

Rising dew points will help keep temperatures mild tonight, with
most overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures on
Saturday will greatly depend on amount of sunshine or lack of cloud
cover/precipiation, but for the most part still looks mild with most
areas reaching the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday night into Sunday a developing low pressure system over the
central plains will begin to influence the stalled frontal boundary
across the area pushing it northward as a warm front. The warm
frontal boundary aloft will move north of Lake Ontario Sunday,
however the surface warm front will get hung up on on the south side
of Lake Ontario, enhanced by the lake breeze off the relatively
cooler lake waters. The main area of widespread synoptic
precipitation will develop along the frontal boundary aloft north of
Lake Ontario, while enhanced surface convergence along the surface
boundary will continue to support scattered showers across western
NY. There will also be a wide range in temperatures on Sunday with
locations north of the I-90 thruway corridor markedly cooler than
areas south across the western Southern Tier and southern Genesee
Valley. Along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and the Saint
Lawrence valley temperatures will likely remain in the 40s to low
50s, while temperatures across southern portions of the state could
push into the upper 70s. Rochester and Watertown will likely remain
on the cooler side in the 50s, while Buffalo will be very near the
transition with as much as a 20 degree temperature difference
possible between the Southtowns and Niagara Falls.

By Sunday night into Monday, the surface warm front will finally
push north across Lake Ontario with deep southerly downslope winds
developing across the region in the warm sector of the occluded low
pressure system centered back across Wisconsin. 850 mb temperatures
will again surge to +15 to +18C promoting temperatures reaching at
least the upper 70s to low 80s, depending on cloud cover and timing
of the impinging cold front. Showers will cross the region with
thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon and evening. There will be
ample shear to result in strong to severe thunderstorms; however, the
main limiting factor will be how much instability can be realized
ahead of the approaching front. This will depend on the timing of
the front itself and how much sunshine can break through in the warm
sector to destabilize the atmosphere. Will continue to mention the
potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The cold front and any
associated convection will cross the region through Monday evening
with cooler air filtering in it wake.

A cooler airmass will be in place on Tuesday as the trough crosses
the region. As the upper-level trough crosses the region on Tuesday
enough moisture and ascent from the trough passage could spark some
light showers across the region with the steep lapse rates aloft.
Cloud cover will also linger under the trough, and with 850 mb
temperatures to around 0C, high temperatures will be limited to the
upper 40s/ low 50s in western NY to nearly 60 toward central NY.
Tuesday will be a windy day, with a 45-50 kt 850mb flow potentially
supporting advisory level gusts to 50 mph. Ultimately this will
depend on the track and strength of the surface low, and if there is
any sunshine to help mix these winds aloft to the surface. This
threat of gusty winds is included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cool and unsettled weather look to be the norm for most days over
the next few weeks as a mean longwave trough remains in place over
the Great Lakes and Northeast, with frequent shortwaves and
associated surface lows bringing periods of showers and fresh
deliveries of cool air.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the deep upper level trough over the
Great Lakes will move east across Quebec and weaken, but will still
maintain enough influence across our region to keep below normal
temperatures in place right through the end of next week. 850mb
temps run from -2C to -4C Wednesday depending on model of choice,
and only improve to around +1C by Friday.

The weather will remain unsettled as well. Tuesday night and
Wednesday the eastward moving trough will combine with cool air
aloft and remaining wrap around moisture to support scattered
showers, especially across the higher terrain with an added boost
from upslope flow. It should briefly dry out Wednesday night as a
bubble of high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes and New
England.

By Thursday and Friday of next week another trough is forecast to
dig into the eastern US, and potentially phase and close off into a
mid level closed low. An associated low will form along or inland of
the east coast and move slowly northward. If this materializes, it
will spread clouds and more showers into the region for the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley will lift northward
to the NY/PA border tonight...where it will then stall out through
Saturday.

Expect increasing/lowering clouds to spread across the region from
southwest to northeast tonight in advance of the frontal boundary...
with some rain showers then following suit overnight across areas
south of Lake Ontario...with the greatest coverage of these expected
to be across the Southern Tier. Expect flight conditions to mostly
be in the VFR range...though some MVFR/IFR will develop across the
higher terrain of the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes later on tonight.

On Saturday...expect scattered showers (and perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms as well) from time to time south of Lake Ontario...with
the greatest chances of these again found across the western Southern
Tier. Meanwhile...morning IFR/MVFR restrictions across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes will generally improve back
to VFR...with VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere.

Outlook...
Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...MVFR to locally IFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves will approach 2 feet on the eastern waters of the Great Lakes
tonight. A frontal boundary will become draped across the lower
Great Lakes to start this weekend, though winds and waves will
remain light and minimal through the day Saturday and Saturday
night.

Strengthening east to northeasterly winds will likely bring
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the western Lake Ontario
nearshores for Sunday. Another, stronger storm system may bring
another round of thunderstorms early next week, with high end
small craft conditions likely returning on the lakes by
Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
East to northeast winds will increase Sunday, with waves
building across western portions of Lake Ontario. This combined
with already high levels on Lake Ontario has the potential to
result in lakeshore flooding along the shoreline. The highest
waves are expected in Niagara, Orleans and western Monroe
counties. There is still uncertainty concerning the placement of
the highest wave heights since even a slight shift to the more
easterly direction would push the highest waves to the Canadian
shoreline.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The last days of April will finish with above normal temperatures,
warm enough that it will send our climate sites towards a top
10 warmest April on record. The degree of anomalous warmth has
been greater towards the west, where climate site Buffalo may
near the warmest April on record. Below are the warmest Aprils
on record.


Buffalo

Rank....Value (F).....Year

1........51.3.........1921
2........51.1.........2010
3........51.0.........1955
4........50.9.........2008
5........50.8.........1878

Current April average temperature through April 27th: 50.3F


Rochester

Rank....Value (F).....Year

1........52.6.........1878
2........52.5.........1921
3........52.4.........2010
4........52.3.........2008
5........51.4.........1915

Current April average temperature through April 27th: 51.2F


Watertown

Rank....Value (F).....Year

1........49.1.........1987
2........48.7.........1955
3........48.7.........2010
4........48.3.........1968
5........48.2.........2008

Current April average temperature through April 27th: 47.4F

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester begin 1871, while
Watertown`s history is a bit shorter, with temperature records
beginning in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...APFFEL/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS


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