Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031026
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
426 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS SO RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR
LOCALIZED  FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE...CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY A TYPICAL SURFACE
MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL EXIST WITH DESERT HEAT LOW OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA COMBINING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND NORTH TO
INDUCE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE
50S MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER
RISES TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL MEANWHILE
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY
LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT LOW LEVEL HEATING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT MUCAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE INHIBITION. OVERALL SCENARIO SHOULD
THEREFORE GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOST AREAS. FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFTING MECHANISMS BUT EXPECT HEATING AND
UPSLOPE WILL INITIATE SOME STORMS WITH SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALLOWING FOR FURTHER UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MAY FURTHER ENHANCE ACTIVITY. GIVEN
THE LIGHT STORM MOTION VECTORS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW MOVING OR
EVEN BACK BUILDING SO HEAVY RAINS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT.

BY SUNDAY SURFACE LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO LEE CYCLONE WITH TRAILING TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD
THEREFORE BECOME MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REGIONAL
TRAJECTORIES INDICATE THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SO AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER
60S WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4
INCHES. AGAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE WEAK BUT SURFACE
HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE PUSHES A WEAKENING FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CWA TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING AND SUSTAINING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INFLOW. THUS THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO
LATER PERIODS WITH MODELS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY WHILE AIR MASS REMAINS
AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WIDESPREAD
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL. WINDS GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 20
KT MPH EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
BORDERLAND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALLS SHOULD THEREFORE REDUCE THE FIRE THREAT. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH LOCALIZED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NEAR STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  74  95  74 /  30  40  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           92  69  91  69 /  20  40  30  30
LAS CRUCES              94  70  92  70 /  40  40  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              92  69  91  70 /  30  40  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              69  55  70  55 /  60  60  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  70  91  69 /  40  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             84  63  83  63 /  50  50  50  50
DEMING                  94  70  92  69 /  40  40  40  50
LORDSBURG               94  69  91  68 /  50  40  40  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  74  95  74 /  30  40  30  40
DELL CITY               93  68  93  68 /  20  30  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            96  73  95  72 /  30  40  30  30
LOMA LINDA              90  69  89  69 /  30  40  40  40
FABENS                  96  72  95  71 /  30  40  30  40
SANTA TERESA            95  72  93  72 /  30  40  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          93  70  92  70 /  30  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           93  69  92  70 /  40  40  40  40
HATCH                   95  68  93  69 /  40  40  30  40
COLUMBUS                94  70  91  70 /  40  50  30  50
OROGRANDE               93  71  92  72 /  30  40  30  40
MAYHILL                 76  57  78  58 /  60  40  50  40
MESCALERO               78  57  80  58 /  60  50  60  50
TIMBERON                78  57  79  57 /  60  50  50  40
WINSTON                 84  61  83  61 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               91  65  90  65 /  40  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               92  68  92  69 /  40  40  30  40
LAKE ROBERTS            84  59  82  58 /  60  60  60  50
HURLEY                  87  65  85  64 /  50  50  50  50
CLIFF                   91  65  89  65 /  50  40  50  40
MULE CREEK              91  65  88  64 /  60  40  50  40
FAYWOOD                 89  65  87  65 /  40  40  50  50
ANIMAS                  96  68  91  68 /  50  50  40  40
HACHITA                 96  68  92  68 /  50  60  40  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          94  66  89  65 /  50  60  50  60
CLOVERDALE              90  65  86  64 /  50  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH


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