Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH A COUPLE OF
INTERLUDES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...COMBINED WITH
TROUGHS ALOFT...TO GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TODAY WILL GIVE THE GILA AREA A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH ALOFT
WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST TO MOVE IN ALSO. AREAS EAST OF EL PASO COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT
WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW YET
ANOTHER INTRUSION OF MOIST AIR FROM THE EAST. THIS INTRUSION WILL
MOVE TO THE ARIZONA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE GILA AND AREAS EAST OF DEMING FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER RIDGE IS HARDLY A BLOCKING
ELEMENT AS SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS DROP DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OVER THE
CWA...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CUTTING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE AREA MID WEEK. IN THE SHORT
TERM...DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MONDAY IS
NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TODAY. FEATURE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH TINKERED
WITH SMALL QPF`S JUST NORTH OF THE GILA...SO WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN
FOR THOSE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH RIDGE WILL REACH ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY AND PASS ACROSS NEW MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. BACKING WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRAW DRYLINE/MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM
WITH WESTWARD PENETRATION OF THIS MOISTURE...BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST OF EL PASO. HENCE POPS WILL BE LIMITED
TO THIS AREA. EXPECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO 50 TO ADVECT IN. GFS
SHOWING MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH
SEVERE. UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN
END TO ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE SERIOUS PUSH WEST OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOISTURE. PUSH BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHES THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OR EVEN ARIZONA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
SPREAD POPS FURTHER WEST FROM CURRENT GRIDS. THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS
LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE EAST. GFS
SHOWS MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF
90-150 DEG AS STRONG 800-850MB EASTERLY JET DEVELOPS. WET BULB
ZEROES OF AROUND 13000 FT MSL ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HAIL AND WINDS COULD BOTH APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. SUNDAY PW`S INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH SO SOME FLOODING
COULD ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE. STAY TUNED.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERS OVER THE CWA AND FLOW BECOMES STAGNANT
(NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT EXISTING MOISTURE).

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WITH NW TO W WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BLACK RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS...REDUCED VISIBILITY  AND STRONG OUT FLOW WINDS COULD OCCUR
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ISOLATED HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DRY LIGHTING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. A SURGE OF MOIST EAST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN ZONES...WHILE ANOTHER
STRONGER SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE FIRE ZONES. THESE WEEKEND STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  62  93  64  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  57  91  57  89 /   0   0   0  20  20
LAS CRUCES              86  55  91  57  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              85  56  92  57  90 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              64  42  71  45  67 /   0   0   0  20  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   84  55  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             78  48  82  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  86  51  91  51  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               86  52  90  50  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      88  62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               87  57  92  58  89 /   0   0   0  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            89  58  95  61  92 /   0   0   0  10  20
LOMA LINDA              82  59  88  59  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
FABENS                  88  58  93  60  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            87  57  92  59  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  58  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  51  91  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   86  53  92  54  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                85  56  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               85  59  91  60  90 /   0   0   0  10   0
MAYHILL                 71  48  79  50  75 /   0   0   0  20  40
MESCALERO               72  46  79  47  77 /   0   0   0  20  40
TIMBERON                71  47  79  48  76 /   0   0   0  20  30
WINSTON                 77  47  81  47  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               85  51  88  51  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               86  52  91  52  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            78  46  82  47  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  81  48  84  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   84  39  88  42  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              82  37  85  39  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 81  50  85  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  86  52  90  53  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 87  51  92  50  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          87  49  91  49  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              83  50  85  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








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