Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...GIVING THE
BORDERLAND ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND CONITNUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BACK OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS
WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM GROWTH...THOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL SHOWING A TREND FROM ACTIVE TO RELATIVELY QUIET
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM UPPER HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS A BIT LONGER BEFORE
DRIFTING WEST. MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND WESTERN SIDE
OF THE HIGH AND OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. TPW IMAGERY SHOWING
PW`S RANGING FROM 1.4 INCHES EAST TO AROUND 1.0 INCH WEST.
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST CONVECTION REMAINING OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST STARTING TO
FORM ON THE LOWLANDS OF OTERO COUNTY. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE
TONIGHT. WITH PW`S...INSTABILITY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...SOME
FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS UPPER HIGH BEGINS
SHIFTING WEST NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD FORCE MOISTURE
PLUME WEST SOMEWHAT...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...BEGIN STABILIZING THE
EASTERN CWA OUT. LEFT POPS OUT OF THE EAST...EXCEPT THE SAC
MTNS...THROUGH SATURDAY. WHERE STORMS DO FORM THURSDAY...NORTH AND
WEST OF LAS CRUCES...FLOODING COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE AS PW`S
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE WEST AND STORM MOVEMENT CONTINUES AT
A SLOW PACE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO JUST THE
MOUNTAINS

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...BY FRIDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY THE HIGH IS CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE JUST ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
BUT DID PUT BRIEF EVENING LOWLAND POPS BACK IN STARTING SUNDAY AS
UPPER FLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST QUITE OFTEN BRINGS SHORT WAVES DOWN.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF DROP HIGH DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BY TUE/WED...THOUGH ECMWF DROPS IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LOOKS
TOO FAR. AT ANY RATE...THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z.
AIR MASS STILL SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO AREA TONIGHT MAINLY N OF A DMN-ALM LINE. SKY
AND WX: P6SM SCT060-100 SCT- BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT TSTM
ACTIVITY 00Z - 09Z 3SM TSRA BKN040- 060 BKN-OVC 00Z-09Z WITH WINDS
VRB 25G40 KTS. AND AFT 09Z FEW-SCT080 SCT120-140 SCT250 ISOLD
CB/TS OVR SACRAMENTOS AND GILA WILDERNESS AFT 18Z-00Z. ISOLD 06Z
TO 18Z. SFC WINDS GNLY ESE 7-12KTS ISOLD G 20 KTS WEST SLOPES /
PASSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS PREVAILS IN THE
MONSOON FLOW FROM THE THE SOUTH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO TONIGHT. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO MAINLY THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  96  74  97 /  40   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           68  94  70  94 /  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  95  70  95 /  40   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  95  67  94 /  40   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  69  49  71 /  40  30  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  92  69  92 /  50  20  20   0
SILVER CITY             64  85  65  87 /  60  30  30  20
DEMING                  68  94  70  94 /  50  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               67  93  68  94 /  50  30  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  96  73  97 /  40   0   0   0
DELL CITY               69  94  69  96 /  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            72  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  94  72  93 /  30   0   0   0
FABENS                  72  96  71  98 /  40   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  96  71  96 /  40   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  95  70  95 /  40   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  94  68  94 /  50   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  94  68  94 /  50   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                69  94  71  94 /  50   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               69  95  71  95 /  40   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  81 /  40  30  10  10
MESCALERO               55  78  55  81 /  40  30  10  10
TIMBERON                56  78  56  81 /  40  30  10  10
WINSTON                 61  83  61  84 /  70  50  40  30
HILLSBORO               65  92  66  92 /  50  20  20  10
SPACEPORT               66  92  68  92 /  50   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            59  84  59  85 /  70  50  30  30
HURLEY                  65  89  66  89 /  50  20  20  20
CLIFF                   61  89  61  92 /  60  40  30  10
MULE CREEK              61  90  60  91 /  60  50  40  30
FAYWOOD                 65  90  67  89 /  50  10  20  20
ANIMAS                  67  92  68  94 /  50  30  30  10
HACHITA                 67  92  69  93 /  50  20  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  89  67  90 /  60  20  20  10
CLOVERDALE              66  89  68  89 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN



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