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718
FXUS64 KEPZ 271051
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
451 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot, dry, and windy conditions can be expected this afternoon
across most of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Winds will
gust in the 30 to 40 mph range, which should lift up a light dusty
haze. High temperatures this afternoon will again be in the lower
and middle 90s across the lowland deserts. A weakening back door
cold front will push into the area on Sunday, with slightly cooler
temperatures and an increase in moisture. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Monday and for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another hot and dry day with "breezy to windy" conditions is on
tap for today as an upper level trough currently over Utah grazes
by to our north. Deep mixing to ~600 mb will support wind gusts in
the 30 to 40 mph range -- below advisory criteria, and highest
along east-facing mountain slopes.

A weakening backdoor cold front will push into eastern slopes of
the Sacramento Mountains by early Sunday morning, reaching the
AZ/NM border by midday. Gusty winds will be possible along west-
facing mountain slopes (including the Franklins), but expect
stronger winds Sunday night as a low level jet max of 35-40 knots
develops along the US/Mexico border. Gusts in the 40-45 mph range
will be possible in favored areas west of the Franklin, Hueco,
Organ, and Florida Mountains.

Earlier (00z) model runs were attempting to produce light QPF
along the east slopes of the Sacramentos Saturday night, but this
appears to be erroneous given very shallow moist layer on those
same model`s soundings. Instead expect increasing in low clouds
banked up against the higher terrain late tonight into Sunday
morning.

Increasing low level moisture in the wake of the front looks to
setup a more active/wetter pattern for next week. A weak upper
level "dirty ridge" (ridge with embedded disturbances/vort maxes
still passing through) will be in place, keeping winds aloft
relatively light. This will reduce bulk shear and favor sub-severe
storms and less organized convection. This makes it a little
tough to really ramp up the PoPs outside of the higher terrain,
but it appears that areas west of the divide will be favored
towards the middle of the week as the low level moisture intrusion
starts to retreat. Dry lighting strikes may be a concern over the
Gila, especially as low level moisture starts to decrease.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/12Z-28/12Z... VFR conditions will prevail
today with just light dust expected as west winds increase to
around 20-25 knots (gusts 30-40 knots). Backdoor cold front will
push into parts of Otero and Hudspeth Counties just before 12Z
Sunday morning, with NE to E winds gusting to 40 knots possible
west of area mountain ranges.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions will continue today, but 20-foot winds will
stay just below Red Flag criteria, though it will be very close
for a couple hours in the afternoon for a few spots along east-
facing mountain slopes. A weakening backdoor cold front will bring
increasing moisture to the area Sunday and Monday. Isolated to
Scattered thunderstorms will be a daily threat beginning Monday.
Wetting rain chances will be enhanced east of the continental
divide. Heading into mid-week, the low level moisture will begin
to pull out of SW New Mexico, potentially increasing the risk of
dry lightning strikes in the Gila.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           92  64  84  64 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              91  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              90  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              66  38  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   89  57  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             82  49  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  91  52  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               89  53  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      92  63  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               95  57  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            97  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              88  59  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  95  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            92  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          91  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           90  51  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   92  53  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                93  56  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               91  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 78  43  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               76  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                75  43  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 82  43  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               91  51  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            79  39  84  41 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  83  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   86  45  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              83  43  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 85  49  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  91  54  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 91  53  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          91  55  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              86  53  91  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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