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FXUS64 KEPZ 261041
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
441 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Some high clouds around early this morning will clear out before
noon as a weak upper level disturbance moves east of the area.
Temperatures will be several degrees cooler than Saturday, but
will remain above-normal. A stronger Pacific storm system will
bring precipitation to the Gila Region and parts of Southwest New
Mexico on Tuesday, with winds picking up across the lowlands.
Cooler temperatures will follow this system on Wednesday, but we
will be back in the upper-70s over much of the lowlands by
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level low over the
NM/CO border with an attendant shortwave trough moving through
our area early this morning. This has helped periodically keep
some breezier conditions in place east of area mountains and
subsequently warmer temperatures. This system will quickly move
east of the area today, with high clouds clearing out this
morning. Slightly cooler temperatures behind the system will still
be running 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

The overall pattern this week will be active, with significant
upper troughs/closed lows affecting the area towards the middle
and end of the week, with brief period of upper level ridging in
between.

For Monday, temperatures will continue to climb further above
normal as a broad, low-amplitude ridge transitions across the
area. Meanwhile, a trough digging over California on Monday will
deepen into a closed low over northern Arizona on Tuesday. The
ECMWF and a few GFS Ensemble members try to take a more southerly
route with the upper low, but will go with the more favored
solution.

Precip will mainly affect mountainous areas like the Gila Region
and Sacramento mountains Tuesday, but a few light showers may
sneak into the lowlands of SW New Mexico as well. Precip will
begin to move into the Gila Tuesday morning, possibly starting as
a brief mix of rain and snow in a few areas that manage to cool
down enough overnight. However, snow levels will generally run
over 8500 feet for most of the day, which will minimize impacts.
QPF amounts will be fairly light...0.10 to 0.20 in parts of the
Gila, with less than 0.10 in the Sacramentos, and a few hundredths
for the lowlands of SW New Mexico. Wind will be the main problem
in the lowlands, with westerly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to
45 mph. East-facing slope locations may end up needing a Wind
Advisory.

Cooler NW flow will follow this system on Wednesday, dropping
temperatures to a few degrees below normal for a change. But
temperatures will quickly rise back up to around 2-4 degrees
above normal on Thursday as an upper ridge briefly moves across
the area.

Low-confidence forecast still for the next system set to affect
the area on Friday. Friday will likely be windy, but increasing
precip chances are possible into the Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions today with SCT-BKN high clouds clearing out this
morning. Winds will be a little breezy this afternoon, but nothing
too terrible for March (West to WNW gusting around 25 knots).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strongest winds today look like they will be focused over Far West
Texas, though dry conditions with RH values below 15 percent will
be widespread across the remainder of the lowlands. Expect
continued breezy to windy weather through the week, with respites
on Monday and Thursday. A Pacific upper low will affect the area
Tuesday, with higher RH values and precip chances for the Gila and
the Sacramentos, and stronger winds over the lowlands. A similar
system is likely to affect the area in the Friday to Saturday time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 78  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           76  49  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              74  44  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              74  45  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              52  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   74  46  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             65  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  74  42  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               73  39  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      76  52  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               79  40  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            80  48  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              71  49  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  78  46  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            76  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          75  51  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           75  39  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   75  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                77  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               76  48  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 63  35  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               62  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                60  32  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 67  29  68  32 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               71  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               73  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            65  25  68  28 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  68  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   72  32  74  36 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek              69  37  69  40 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 69  43  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  75  41  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 74  40  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          75  42  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              71  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this
     evening for NMZ111-112.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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