Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 252015
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
115 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BEGINNING
TOMORROW THEN CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A ZONAL WEST TO EAST
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS
DURING MID WEEK ...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND PROBABLY WOULD
AFFECT US NO EARLIER THAN TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED ALONG MSP-PRS LINE. ALL MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MX AS
PRIMARY POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. FORTUNATELY...NO MOISTURE OR
LIFT OF ANY CONSEQUENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. IT SHOULD...
HOWEVER...ALLOW OUR WINDS TO TURN LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY LATER
TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD START A SLOW WARMUP FOR WEDNESDAY AND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...WE WILL TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE WARMING CONTINUING THOUGH MONDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST FROM THE
NE PACIFIC ON MONDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SPREADING N AND E. GFS IS FASTER...
WARMER AND SHALLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS...WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE THAT SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY,

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-27/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. W TO SW WINDS AOB 10KTS THRU 12Z THEN
BECOMING LT AND VARIABLE ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY START WARMING UP OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN STARTING TO FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 28  59  35  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           27  56  32  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              26  57  32  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              25  57  33  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              17  41  26  49  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  57  33  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  53  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  24  58  30  62  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               22  59  29  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      31  57  37  62  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               23  60  31  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            27  61  34  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              29  51  36  56  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  25  60  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  57  33  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          29  56  36  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           20  57  24  61  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   23  58  27  63  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                27  57  33  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               26  56  34  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 19  51  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               16  48  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                17  48  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 24  53  30  56  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               28  54  35  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  58  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            22  55  28  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  27  54  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   13  57  20  60  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              12  55  17  59  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 27  54  34  58  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  24  60  31  65  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  59  29  64  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          25  60  30  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              25  58  32  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/26





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