Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 212113
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
313 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air remains in place over most of the region through the
weekend, but an approaching trough from the west will help to
bring moisture back to areas east of the Rio Grande late Friday
through Saturday. Expecting storms to develop over areas mostly
east of El Paso Friday evening to continue through Saturday
evening. It appears the rest of the Borderland will stay dry.
Temperatures will be on a slow day to day decline with next weeks
temperatures very near normal. A cool front will move in midweek
next week to further cool the region on stronger east winds. The
front will help bring back a bit of moisture resulting in another
shot at storms for areas east of the Rio Grande.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deep dry southwest flow continues over the region as a Pacific
trough begins to dig over the west coast. Moisture lies just to
our south and east but steering flow will keep it out of our
region this evening and much of tomorrow.

The west coast trough will drop south as a Pacific low moves over
Nevada. This backs our winds from WSW to more SW which will draw
the moisture west and north back into the eastern portions of our
forecast area. The flow aloft will likely add some minor dynamics
as we come under the front side of this large Pacific storm
system. In addition some low-level convergence to the east of the
Rio Grande will so help to generate and support some thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening hours. Locations west of an
Alamogordo to El Paso line appear to remain way too dry for any
storms. This pattern remains unchanged through at least Saturday.
Dry and southwesterly over the majority of the CWFA, but quite
different well east of the Rio Grande with healthy moisture and
dynamics resulting in storms. In fact the vertical profile shows
both speed and directional sheer which may lead to strong and
severe storms over Hudsepth and eastern Otero counties. SPC places
these areas under a marginal for severe thunderstorms.

Sunday the trough axis moves east toward our region with a major
spoke of energy exiting and lifting out. This acts as a sweeper
and moves the moisture east and out of the area. Thus we go to a
dry airmass over the entire forecast area Sunday and Monday and
likely Tuesday. Temperatures will be a bit lower each day with
daily highs slowly eroding down to near normal.

Tuesday night a weak push from the east will make an entry over
the eastern zones. This frontal boundary will be enhanced
Wednesday and onward with stronger and persistent east winds.
Breezy and gusty east winds will be the first signs, followed by
cooler weather for the rest of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday
moisture moves back west to our east zones with slight chances for
storms east of the Rio Grande; dry to the west. Thursday and
Friday`s east pushes extend west across the entire CWFA with
additional moisture spreading across all zones. There will be
storm chances for all areas to end the week.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z...
West to WSW winds may gust in the 23-27 knot range through around
01Z. Expect light/variable winds and mostly clear skies overnight.
Winds will shift to the SSW to S on Friday, with isolated TS roughly
east of an LRU-ELP line after 20Z.

25-Hardiman

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will persist over SW New Mexico for the next
few days, while an upper-level trough digging in over the west coast
taps subtropical moisture, leading to scattered thunderstorms east
of the Rio Grande Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain a
few degrees above normal until early next week. A backdoor cold
front will move in Monday night, dropping temperatures back to near
or slightly below normal, followed by a better shot at precipitation
Tuesday and Wednesday over a wider area.

25-Hardiman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  91  69  89 /   0   0  30  20
Sierra Blanca           67  90  65  86 /   0  30  40  40
Las Cruces              63  87  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              63  88  65  85 /   0  20  30  20
Cloudcroft              47  68  49  65 /   0  30  40  40
Truth or Consequences   64  86  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             55  79  53  76 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                  60  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               59  86  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      70  90  69  88 /   0   0  20  10
Dell City               65  92  66  87 /   0  30  40  60
Fort Hancock            69  93  69  90 /   0  20  40  30
Loma Linda              66  87  65  84 /   0  30  30  30
Fabens                  70  91  69  90 /   0  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            68  89  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          65  88  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           63  88  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   62  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                61  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               67  89  67  86 /   0  20  30  20
Mayhill                 54  77  55  74 /   0  30  40  50
Mescalero               53  77  54  74 /   0  30  40  30
Timberon                52  76  54  73 /   0  30  30  40
Winston                 48  78  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               57  84  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               63  87  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            47  76  48  75 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  53  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   50  82  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek              54  79  54  77 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 55  82  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                  57  87  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 56  88  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          55  88  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              56  85  59  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/25



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