Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 281023
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
423 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see a slow drying trend over the next few days which will
lesson, but not eliminate our daily rain chances through the
weekend. Moisture and better rain chances return by Tuesday of
next week. Temperatures will run within a few degrees of average
through the first of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday may have been the last widespread monsoon rain we will
see for a couple of days. The models for the last several runs
have been showing a drying trend taking place today through this
weekend. Looking at the latest water vapor satellite images, it
does appear that drier air at the mid and high level is moving
into the area. This drier air will help reduce but not eliminate
our daily thunderstorm chances for the next several days. The main
factor in this drying trend will be the position of the upper
level ridge. Currently with the upper level ridge center over the
Texas Panhandle, it was pulling drier continental air from the
Midwest. There may still be enough moisture west of the Rio Grande
to warrant higher thunderstorm chances out there, but both the
NAM and GFS push the best moisture west into Arizona.

By Monday the upper level ridge will begin to move to our west and
set up camp over the western part of the U.S. Initially this will
allow a lot of recycled moisture lurking to our north over
Colorado to move south into New Mexico. We will see an up tick in
our rain chances starting on Tuesday. If the GFS is to be
believed there may even be an increased threat for heavy rain and
flash flooding as atmospheric moisture values get pretty high. But
as you can imagine there is only so much moisture lurking to our
north and since the upper level ridge will continue to stay to our
west, we will begin to see a distinct drying trend toward the end
of next week. If the extended models are to be believed we may be
able to pull all the rain chances from the forecast.

Temperatures this week will not vary much from day to day. For the
next couple of days we will see our highs a few degrees above
average as we see a little less cloud cover. Then for the first of
next week as the moisture and rain chances start to increase we
will see our high temperatures dip a little below average. And if
the extended models are to be believed we could see high
temperatures five to eight degrees below average, can you say
hello to high temperatures in the 80`s, but for now I haven`t
jumped on the cooling trend to strongly.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z
VFR conditions expected for most of the day. Somewhat drier air
was moving into the region today and that will help reduce, but
not eliminate our rain chances today. A few storms, especially
west of the Rio Grande could produce occasional MVFR and isolated
IFR conditions this afternoon and evening. The main threat from
storms today will be gusty outflow winds and small hail. Storm
motion today will be toward the west or northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see a slight down tick in our monsoon activity over the
next couple of days, but I can`t say we will not have any
thunderstorm activity, just less of it. Our rain chances will go
up though for the start of next week, then a more significant
drying trend may set in for the end of next week. Min RH`s will
continue to run above 20% for the next seven days, and winds are
not expected to be a widespread problem, though very strong wind
gusts will be possible in and near any thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 95  74  96  73 /  10  10   0  20
Sierra Blanca           93  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              92  69  93  68 /  20  20  10  20
Alamogordo              93  69  94  69 /  20  10   0  10
Cloudcroft              67  51  70  53 /  20  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences   92  69  93  68 /  20  20  10  20
Silver City             85  61  87  61 /  40  30  30  30
Deming                  91  68  93  67 /  20  20  30  20
Lordsburg               89  68  90  66 /  30  30  30  40
West El Paso Metro      94  74  95  72 /  10  10   0  20
Dell City               97  72  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            96  74  96  74 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda              91  68  92  67 /  10  10   0  10
Fabens                  96  74  96  72 /  10  10   0  20
Santa Teresa            94  71  94  70 /  20  10   0  20
White Sands HQ          93  71  94  70 /  20  10   0  20
Jornada Range           93  69  95  68 /  20  20  10  20
Hatch                   94  69  95  68 /  20  20  10  20
Columbus                92  69  92  68 /  20  20  30  30
Orogrande               94  72  96  71 /  10  10   0  10
Mayhill                 80  56  82  57 /  20  10   0  10
Mescalero               80  56  82  58 /  20  10   0  10
Timberon                79  56  81  57 /  20  10   0  10
Winston                 87  59  87  59 /  40  30  30  20
Hillsboro               91  65  92  64 /  40  30  30  20
Spaceport               93  68  94  67 /  20  20  10  20
Lake Roberts            85  57  85  56 /  50  30  30  40
Hurley                  87  62  89  61 /  30  30  30  30
Cliff                   89  63  90  62 /  40  40  30  30
Mule Creek              87  64  89  63 /  40  40  30  40
Faywood                 89  63  90  63 /  30  30  30  30
Animas                  89  67  89  66 /  40  40  30  50
Hachita                 90  66  90  65 /  30  30  30  40
Antelope Wells          88  66  89  64 /  40  40  30  60
Cloverdale              86  64  86  62 /  50  50  30  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice



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