Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 251143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
443 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather will return to the Borderland today through
Tuesday, as we await the next storm system. This system will move
into the area from the Pacific Tuesday and Wednesday. This storm
will bring gusty winds to the area, especially Wednesday. Also
some showers could develop out west of Deming Tuesday evening, and
then spread over the rest of the area Wednesday. Snow could fall
as low as 5000 ft on Wednesday; however all rain and snow is
expected to be light. The remainder of the week after Wednesday
should remain dry with above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We will see a quiet little respite today and Monday before the
next Pacific storm system moves in. In the short term, we remain
near the bottom of a longwave trough over much of the western
U.S. A weak shortwave into NW New Mexico will push through the CWA
this afternoon, with very little effect. Temperatures will begin
a warm up today after the cool down that Saturday morning`s cold
front ushered in. Highs today will approach normal, and then warm
to well above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the storm system will drop down to
southern California Tuesday and then to western New Mexico
Wednesday morning. Winds will increase into breezy category
Tuesday and the upper low nears. NAM continues to try and moisten
up west Texas by bringing the sub tropical plume briefly over the
eastern CWA. GFS/ECMWF both keep the plume to our east so went
with that solution of no pcpn in the east. Did begin chance of
showers western CWA Tuesday evening and then spread the POPs east
on Wednesday. PWs suggest low QPFs as they struggle to get above
one-third of an inch. Associated surface front looks to move
through the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Snow
levels will start out quite ahead of the front and then drop
rapidly behind the front. Dropped snow levels to 5000 ft Gila
Region...and to 6000 ft Sacramento Mtns...by Wednesday morning. A
brief flurry could reach near the desert lowlands from Deming west
but should not create any problems. Upper low and front quickly
exit the area by late Wednesday afternoon. As is often the case
with these Feb/Mar storms, strong dynamics including a 150+ kt
jet, will develop; however lack of moisture will limit
rainfall/snowfall totals.

Thursday through the weekend...longwave trough shifts west some
and also lifts north, meaning main storm track will remain further
north through this period. Moderate southwest flow aloft will mean
a period of warm temperatures, with highs well above normal after
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z...
VFR conditions expected through the period. SKC-FEW250 with
generally light winds through 18Z...then winds west 8-12 kts
through 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry next 3 days before Pacific storm moves in Tuesday
night and Wednesday with windy conditions and a few showers. Snow
levels will fall to around 5000 ft Wednesday morning. However any
rain or snow that falls over the fire zones should remain light.
Temperatures will cool to below normal Wednesday. Back to dry and
warm Thursday into the weekend.

Min RHs will be below 15% through Tuesday, with conditions
approaching red flag criteria on Tuesday-though winds will fall
just short. Winds stronger on Wednesday, but min RHs into the
20-35% range. Min RHs back down below 15% after Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  31  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           62  31  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              58  25  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              57  25  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              40  21  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   57  27  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             51  25  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  58  22  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               54  25  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      58  32  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               62  27  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            63  32  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              57  30  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  61  27  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  28  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          59  27  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           58  21  66  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   61  22  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                59  24  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               59  28  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 49  22  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               47  23  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                47  22  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 55  19  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               58  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               58  24  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            52  19  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  53  20  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   55  21  64  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              52  22  62  25 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 56  23  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  57  22  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 57  24  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          61  26  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              57  29  66  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner


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