Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 232117
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
317 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and Dry conditions will continue to bake the lowlands of south
central New Mexico and Far West Texas through this evening.
Overnight minimum temperatures will stay in the upper 70s to
around 80 in the El Paso Metro area, where a Heat Advisory remains
in effect. Isolated thunderstorms will mainly stay over the
Sacramento Mountains and Southwestern New Mexico this evening.
Expect a few more storms and a degree or two of cooler
temperatures tomorrow. Available moisture and thunderstorm
coverage will increase as we head through the week ahead, which
will take the edge off the heat again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It`s another paltry low-end monsoon day for the region, with heat
once again the primary weather hazard du jour. The upper
tropospheric disturbance that passed over Chihuahua a couple days
ago helped to maintain a couple of large MCSes over Sonora last
night. Outflow from the northernmost MCS boosted dewpoints into
the lower 60s over the San Simon Valley (i.e., Rodeo area) in the
Boot Heel this morning, but even there we have since mixed-out to
lower 50s. Upper-30s and lower-40s dewpoints are the rule just
about everywhere else, especially east of a weak low level
convergence zone that`s draped across the SW corner of NM.

East of this boundary, dry/stable air aloft with a strong
subsidence inversion will keep things dry through tonight. The
Sacramento Mountains will hang on to a slight chance PoP for this
afternoon and early evening, but they are struggling to get much
vertical development in their Cu field so far.

To the west of the boundary, slightly moister air and weak
instability is in place. Scattered storms have fired up in the
Gila Region along the west slopes of the Black Range. These storms
will drift/propogate to the south and west over the next few
hours, and may work into the Lowlands of Grant/Hidalgo (maybe even
western Luna). The HRRR is a little more "excited" over
thunderstorm chances in the Boot Heel region, but it also
indicates that there should be on-going convection over the
northern Sierra Madres in Sonora, where in reality there are not
even any Cu popping up yet. Will hold on to isolated PoPs for the
Bootheel this evening, but that`s about it.

With 50 to 60 degree dewpoint depressions, any storms that do make
it into the lowlands of SW New Mexico will have the risk of strong
downbursts with some blowing dust, but again, the overall
probabilities are pretty low.

For tomorrow...the upper ridge sort of re-develops over northern
New Mexico, and the messy mid-level flow allows some recycled
moisture to drop back in over the area. However, the GFS and NAM
are at odds over the availability of low level moisture in the
area, with the GFS again mixing-out dewpoints over much of the
area into the upper-30s/low-40s whereas the NAM clings to lower-
50s. The NAM appears to give us a significant moisture boost
tonight from convection in Sonora, but storms in that area may
fail to materialize given stable conditions in the wake of last
night`s storms. As a result, expect only a slight up-tick in
convective coverage tomorrow with the Gila and SW New Mexico again
being most favored. Max Temps still look to be a degree or two
lower than today, so we left the Heat Advisory in place through 6
AM tomorrow. We`ll be close to criteria on Monday afternoon as
well, but will let the overnight shift fine-tune things and decide
if we need to extend it. Criteria is Max Temp 105/Min 75...and
we`re looking at 103-104 for Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday, we will start to see a better increase in
upper level moisture (PWATs above 1 inch!?) as easterly flow
becomes more prevalent from the surface to the mid-levels. Expect
thunderstorm chances to increase progressively through the week.
A slow-moving inverted trough may further amplify thunderstorm
activity later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z.
P6SM SKC-SCT120-150 for much of period with mainly mountain SCT
VRB25G45KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN050-070 which could move onto the
lowlands west of the divide early in the period and again sunday
afternoon.  Winds will be E to SE east of divide and N to NW
west of divide all AOB 12kts except near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge will be shifting westward into the southern Nevada
region over the upcoming week. As it does, moisture will get
recycled around the high and there will be increasing thunderstorm
chances through the upcoming work week. Temperatures starting Monday
look to drop below 100 degrees and remain that way through the week.
With the falling temperatures and increased moisture, relative
humidity values will be on the increase to above 25 percent
areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 79 104  78 101 /   0  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca           73  99  74  95 /   0  10  20  10
Las Cruces              73 102  73  98 /   0  10  20  10
Alamogordo              74 102  73  98 /   0  10  10  30
Cloudcroft              50  79  52  75 /  20  40  40  50
Truth or Consequences   75 100  74  97 /  10  20  30  30
Silver City             67  96  66  91 /  20  50  50  60
Deming                  72 102  72  98 /   0  20  30  30
Lordsburg               69  97  69  97 /  10  20  30  30
West El Paso Metro      78 103  78  99 /   0  10  10  10
Dell City               69 102  72  97 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            76 104  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
Loma Linda              70  97  71  92 /   0  10  20  10
Fabens                  74 104  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Teresa            73 103  75  99 /   0  10  10  10
White Sands HQ          76 101  74  97 /   0  10  20  10
Jornada Range           70 101  70  98 /   0  20  30  10
Hatch                   73 104  73  99 /   0  20  30  20
Columbus                75 101  73  98 /   0  10  20  20
Orogrande               75 101  74  97 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                 60  88  58  83 /  10  40  40  30
Mescalero               57  90  58  86 /  20  40  40  50
Timberon                55  85  57  81 /  10  40  40  30
Winston                 59  92  61  89 /  20  50  50  60
Hillsboro               69 100  70  95 /  10  40  40  50
Spaceport               71 100  73  96 /   0  30  30  10
Lake Roberts            56  97  57  93 /  20  60  50  60
Hurley                  67  95  67  93 /  10  50  50  50
Cliff                   63  99  64  96 /  20  50  50  50
Mule Creek              59  95  61  95 /  20  50  50  50
Faywood                 67 100  68  95 /  10  50  50  50
Animas                  71  98  70  97 /  20  20  30  30
Hachita                 71  99  69  98 /  10  20  30  30
Antelope Wells          70  99  69  96 /  20  30  30  30
Cloverdale              65  91  65  88 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz



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