Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271008
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
408 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUMP MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MONSOONAL SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NORMAL DESERT HEAT LOW OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA COMBINING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO INDUCE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN
INFLOW OF MOIST AIR AT LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ABOVE 50 F MOST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS GENERALLY ABOVE AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
NEAR ARIZONA-MEXICO BORDER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTH TOP
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED
WAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUCH FEATURES IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE BEYOND THE SHORTER RANGES. WITH AIR MASS REMAINING  FAIRLY
MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE EXPECT SURFACE
HEATING...UPSLOPE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS OVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN REGION TO THE WEST.
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SUSTAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION
LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z.
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM 20Z TO 06Z. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS
OF CEILINGS FROM 5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUMP MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OR
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR WITH SEVERAL STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT LOWLANDS
AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  72  98  72 /  20  20  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           93  67  95  68 /  20  20  20  30
LAS CRUCES              94  68  94  67 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              94  67  95  68 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              67  54  73  53 /  40  30  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   91  65  93  67 /  20  20  20  30
SILVER CITY             86  60  86  62 /  40  30  40  40
DEMING                  94  66  96  68 /  30  30  20  30
LORDSBURG               94  66  95  68 /  30  30  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      97  71  98  73 /  20  20  30  40
DELL CITY               98  64  99  71 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  67  98  69 /  20  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              91  67  92  67 /  20  20  30  30
FABENS                  97  69  98  69 /  20  20  30  40
SANTA TERESA            95  70  96  70 /  20  20  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          95  69  95  69 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           94  63  95  68 /  20  30  30  40
HATCH                   96  66  96  67 /  20  20  20  30
COLUMBUS                94  67  96  68 /  30  30  20  40
OROGRANDE               95  70  95  69 /  20  20  20  30
MAYHILL                 80  56  81  57 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               81  55  82  58 /  40  30  50  40
TIMBERON                78  54  81  59 /  40  30  50  40
WINSTON                 83  59  83  59 /  50  40  40  30
HILLSBORO               89  64  92  63 /  30  30  30  40
SPACEPORT               93  65  93  67 /  20  20  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            83  58  86  56 /  50  40  40  50
HURLEY                  88  62  89  63 /  40  30  30  40
CLIFF                   90  61  92  62 /  40  30  30  40
MULE CREEK              89  60  89  58 /  40  30  30  40
FAYWOOD                 89  61  90  64 /  40  30  30  40
ANIMAS                  92  66  94  68 /  30  30  30  30
HACHITA                 94  64  95  67 /  30  30  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          91  64  91  65 /  30  30  30  40
CLOVERDALE              89  64  88  65 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH


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