Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Added some low pops across the far south as spotty returns
continue to move into the southern valley. Fog still looking
possible mainly across the Devils Lake basin where there has been
more clearing. Clouds holding elsewhere.

UPDATE Issued at 932 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Weak radar returns across s central ND with band of mid level
cloud cover sliding SE. No surface indications of -ra however did
add some sprinkles to the far SW fa remainder of the evening.
Otherwise clearing/decreasing cloud cover has spread into the
DVL basin which may heighten potential for fog if clouds do not
fill back in. Farther east model guidance does dry lower levels
however with lack of mixing unsure how far east clearing will get.
Will continue to monitor and adjust fog potential if needed.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

No changes to current forecast needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Very few radar echoes remain across northwest Minnesota with
just a drizzle report here or there. Therefore, dropped all PoPs
by late afternoon. The main challenge will then be fog potential
overnight/early Thursday morning. Model soundings depict
lingering low level moisture across the area with surface high
pressure building in behind a weak cold front/trough passage.
Have included fog mention in the grids west of the Red River
Valley where winds will be the lightest. Current thinking is
winds will stay up closer to 10 kts or more further east and
inhibit any development. With plenty of cloud cover expected to
persist, low temperatures tonight should`t drop too far into the
upper 30s/around 40.

Previous model runs tried to cut down on cloud cover for Thursday
across the entire area but more recent runs keep the 1000-500 mb
moisture lingering. Therefore, tried to slow down any clearing in
the west while the east probably won`t see much of a break at
all. With southerly return flow increasing throughout the day,
temperatures should be able to reach nearly 60 degrees across the
less cloudy areas to the west while the east remains in the low
to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The long term period starts off with an upper level wave
approaching from the west Thursday night and a surface low moving
east through the western Dakotas. Winds will be southerly Thursday
night helping keep temps in the mid to upper 40s. The first push
of cooler air will enter the northwestern zones early Friday
morning...along with low clouds and perhaps some light rain. The
main cold front will cross the Canadian border late in the
afternoon when winds switch from northwest to north. Rain will
skirt the northern zones Friday and Friday night...with highs in
the mid to upper 60s far south to low to mid 50s far north.

A cool air mass will be in place on Saturday as high pressure
will be settling in from the north. An upper wave to the south
will push warm air north with a good band of frontogenesis helping
to produce some rainfall along the south. Our area might be on the
edge of the rain...expanded area but stayed with slight chance for
now across far southern zones.

An upper ridge moves through the area on Sunday...followed quickly
by another upper wave Sunday night and Monday. There looks to be
some good isentropic lift ahead of this wave. Models indicate the
potential for a half an inch or so in some areas. After this
wave...models diverge on how active of a pattern will exist for the
rest of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Cigs and Fog main challenges mainly from the valley west
overnight. Spotty clearing leading to wide range of cigs from the
valley west. Guidance gradually holds or lowers cigs during the
overnight. Most guidance showing the best potential for IFR fog
over the DVL basin. Cigs to slowly lift tomorrow am.




LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.