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000
FXUS63 KFGF 251452
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Near - critical fire weather conditions are possible this
afternoon.

2) Wet weekend ahead, with probabilities for greater than half an
inch of precipitation around 50 - 70% south of HWY - 2.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A mid-level cumulus field is starting to develop down the
valley and across southeast ND through west central Minnesota.
Mixing is starting to occur so RH is gradually dipping into the
30`s and 40`s. Going to monitor for for fire weather concerns
with wind gust up to 30 to 40 mph across our region.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Clouds will increase today ahead of a system that will bring us
precipitation Friday. Some isolated showers remain possible this
morning in the southern Red River Valley, but the larger
rain chances won`t arrive until tonight into Friday. Forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Only notable items of satellite this morning are clouds associated
with light rain in the southern Red River Valley and SE ND.
Precipitation hasn`t yet been reported on surface observations,
probably due to a dry layer aloft the rain will have to overcome.

Synoptically, UL ridging will push eastward, allowing southwest flow
to dominate into the weekend. This will make way for our Friday
system to propagate into the area. Another ejecting low will follow
Sunday into Monday, but precip totals look to be less with that
system. Southwest flow will stick around after that into mid-week,
allowing a active pattern to possibly set up.

Today will be the last dry day in the spell before the first low
pressure system arrives. As the low approaches, it squeezes the air
in between itself and the exiting surface high, which will result in
some breezy conditions. Winds today look to be sustained around 25
MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH in some locations, but most will remain
around 35 MPH. Not very confident in how well we will mix today with
cloud cover expected to increase as the low gets closer, so winds
could be less if we don`t mix as well. As a result of the winds and
RHs around 30%, near-critical fire weather conditions will be
possible today. If mixing is particularly robust, then RHs could be
less, but not seeing a solution where they reach Red Flag criteria.

Attention turns to the Low pressure system ejecting out of the SW
into tonight. Precipitation chances will increase by late evening,
and last through early Sunday. While probabilities for greater than
half an inch of precip are around 50 - 70%, probabilities for an
inch or more are only about 20% in a narrow tongue in the Red River
Valley extending north to Traill county. Higher amounts of rain
(like that 1") are mainly dependent upon the track of the low and
any thunderstorms embedded in the showers (which will be dependent
on MUCAPE in the area, which doesn`t look to be more than 100-150
J/kg currently). Will continue to monitor as the system sets up. The
Sunday/Monday system has much lower probabilities for meaningful
rainfall, with most likely amounts looking to be around half an
inch.

After a rainy weekend, temperatures will rebound back into the 60s
and 70s for highs by mid-week, with lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Winds will increase today out of the south/SE, peaking at
20-30kts and gusts up to 35 knots. Clouds will increase into
tonight ahead of rain showers, dropping ceilings from VFR to
MVFR and some even IFR from west to east into 12z Friday. Winds
will lessen slowly around the same time, but remain gusty.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH