Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 141101
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ALL HAS BEEN QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WIND & TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH A HIGH OVERCAST. A PAIR OF INTENSE
CYCLONES WERE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL & EASTERN CANADA. ONE WAS CENTERED
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO WHILE THE OTHER WAS CENTERED OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AN INTENSE EAST/WEST ORIENTED UPPER WAVE EXTENDED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ONTARIO CYCLONE TO ALONG THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WED)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE ONSET OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN PREDICTED FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS.

TODAY & TONIGHT:
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS &
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES & VERY LITTLE WIND ITS CONCEIVABLE IT MAY SPREAD
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO CYCLONE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SURGE S
THEN SE FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER...ACROSS WISCONSIN...TO LOWER
MICHIGAN FROM TODAY THRU TUE. THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE MID-UPPER WAVE WILL
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SSE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO KANSAS TODAY & TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE KANSAS
NEIGHBORHOOD...BOTH FROM A THUNDERSTORM STANDPOINT TODAY & THEN FROM THE
ONSET OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SSE TODAY IT WILL ENCOUNTER VERY RICH MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS KANSAS & MISSOURI. AS THE MID-UPPER WAVE SURGES S THEN
SE ACROSS KANSAS & MISSOURI THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA...
NORTHERN KANSAS & NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN SPREAD SE WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER MISSOURI &
EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME NICKEL-SIZED HAIL &
~50 MPH WINDS PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING THEN OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KNASAS THIS AFTEFRNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CROSS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUE-WED NIGHT:
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERTED LOWER-DECK SURFACE RIDGE THAT`LL PUNCH ALMOST
DUE S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL SHUNT THUNDERSTORMS TO ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE ON TUE BUT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS
IT DROPS S THEN SE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN PLAINS LOWER-
DECK (ALBEIT MODEST) CYCLOGENESIS WOULD COMMENCE NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW
MEXICO BORDER TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RAPID MOIST ADVECTION FROM
TEXAS & OKLAHOMA ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS & THEN
SPREAD EAST TOWARD CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TUE NIGHT. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT SE TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS WESTERN &
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS SUCH 50-70% POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS CENTRAL &
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS ON WED WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP ASSIGNMENT TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS W OF I-135. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS CERTAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ALL TEMPERATURES 15-20F BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THU-FRI NIGHT:
AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO VENTURE ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS
TEXAS ALL RAINFALL WOULD END IN A NORTH-SOUTH MANNER ON THU. THE END OF
THE WORK-WEEK WILL BE QUIET.

NEXT WEEKEND:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER-
DECK WAVE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SURGES E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT & SAT NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE LOWER-DECK
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. BELIEVE
35-40% POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WED)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE ONSET OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN PREDICTED FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS.

TODAY & TONIGHT:
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS &
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES & VERY LITTLE WIND ITS CONCEIVABLE IT MAY SPREAD
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO CYCLONE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SURGE S
THEN SE FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER...ACROSS WISCONSIN...TO LOWER
MICHIGAN FROM TODAY THRU TUE. THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE MID-UPPER WAVE WILL
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SSE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO KANSAS TODAY & TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE KANSAS
NEIGHBORHOOD...BOTH FROM A THUNDERSTORM STANDPOINT TODAY & THEN FROM THE
ONSET OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SSE TODAY IT WILL ENCOUNTER VERY RICH MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS KANSAS & MISSOURI. AS THE MID-UPPER WAVE SURGES S THEN
SE ACROSS KANSAS & MISSOURI THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA...
NORTHERN KANSAS & NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN SPREAD SE WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER MISSOURI &
EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME NICKEL-SIZED HAIL &
~50 MPH WINDS PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING THEN OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KNASAS THIS AFTEFRNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CROSS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING.

TUE-WED NIGHT:
A FAIRLY STRONG INVERTED LOWER-DECK SURFACE RIDGE THAT`LL PUNCH ALMOST
DUE S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL SHUNT THUNDERSTORMS TO ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE ON TUE BUT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS
IT DROPS S THEN SE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN PLAINS LOWER-
DECK (ALBEIT MODEST) CYCLOGENESIS WOULD COMMENCE NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW
MEXICO BORDER TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RAPID MOIST ADVECTION FROM
TEXAS & OKLAHOMA ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS
WOULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS & THEN
SPREAD EAST TOWARD CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TUE NIGHT. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT SE TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS WESTERN &
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS SUCH 50-70% POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS CENTRAL &
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS ON WED WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP ASSIGNMENT TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS W OF I-135. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS CERTAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ALL TEMPERATURES 15-20F BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THU-FRI NIGHT:
AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO VENTURE ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS
TEXAS ALL RAINFALL WOULD END IN A NORTH-SOUTH MANNER ON THU. THE END OF
THE WORK-WEEK WILL BE QUIET.

NEXT WEEKEND:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER-
DECK WAVE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SURGES E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT & SAT NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE LOWER-DECK
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. BELIEVE
35-40% POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN TRANSIENT...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT CNU
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KS
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT THE TERMINALS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  58  77  60 /  40  10   0  20
HUTCHINSON      86  56  77  59 /  40  10   0  30
NEWTON          86  55  76  58 /  50  10   0  20
ELDORADO        87  55  76  58 /  50  10   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  58  78  60 /  40  20   0  20
RUSSELL         83  54  76  58 /  30  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  55  76  58 /  30  10  10  50
SALINA          84  55  78  59 /  40  10   0  20
MCPHERSON       85  55  77  59 /  40  10   0  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  58  78  57 /  40  20   0  10
CHANUTE         88  55  77  56 /  50  10   0  10
IOLA            87  54  76  55 /  50  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  57  77  56 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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