Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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387
FXUS63 KMQT 272311
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
711 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern
U.S. into the Rockies with a trough over the lower Great Lakes and a
shortwave over southern Manitoba. This shortwave affects the area
this afternoon into this evening as it heads southeast and digs into
the lower Great Lakes on Fri while also closing off a 500 mb low.
System does not have much moisture to work with and just grazes the
western cwa this afternoon. Will keep slight chance pops along the
WI border late this afternoon and then will have dry conditions
through the rest of the forecast period. Overall, did not make too
many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 449 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Models suggest a mid/upper level ridge will prevail across the wrn
CONUS into next week with weak downstream nw flow through the
northern Great Lakes. A number of weak shortwaves are likely to
move through the region but with limited moisture
inflow/availability, and weak dynamics, a mainly dry period is
expected. Temperatures will also remain near or slightly above
seasonal averages.

Friday night and Saturday, mid level and sfc ridging will
continue to build into the area with dry air, mostly clear skies
and seasonable temperatures, lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday through Monday, the models were in better agreement that
dry weather will continue Sunday as the stronger dynamics with a
weak shrtwv in the wnw flow remain well to the north of the cwa.
There will be a slightly higher chance for mainly diurnal
shra/tsra over inland portions of the area Monday as moisture
increases with wsw flow as the high sinks off to the south. The
potential for a weak shrtwv sliding into the area could also aid
pcpn development.

Tue-Thu, higher pcpn chances are expected by late tue into wed as a
stronger shortwave and mid level trough moves into nrn Ontario that
will drag another front into Upper Michigan in response to pattern
amplification with the building ridge into Alberta/Saskatchewan. The
front and associated shra/tsra are expected to drop south of the
cwa Wednesday with lingering chances mainly over the south. The
ECMWF/GEM suggest that high pres will dominate Thursday, with dry
conditions while the GFS/GEFS allow a return of moisture and diurnal
pcpn chances with a more progressive pattern. However, confidence is
low by this time period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 709 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

With high pressure dominating the area, VFR conditions to
continue through the next 24 hours at all three TAF sites. &&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 204 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Winds will remain below 20 knots through the forecast period as
high pressure remains over the area into Tue.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...07



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