Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 151738
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1238 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave crosses today. A clipper system passes north of the
area tonight. A weak system brings some light rain Sunday
afternoon and night. Another clipper crosses Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 935 AM Friday...

Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning.

As of 615 AM Friday...

Forecast on track. GOES-R imagery shows baroclinic leaf
enhancement over the upper Ohio Valley, in line with slight
chance PoPs over the central WV mountains today.

As of 350 AM Friday...

A transient inverted surface trough near the mountains, ahead
of an upper level short wave trough, may get the low level
moisture depth just deep enough for light snow showers there,
especially as the top of the cloud cools into the favored
crystal growth temperatures later this morning.

The upper level short wave pushes a cold front through late
today. Strengthening westerly upslope flow in its wake, together
with the short wave, continues the chance for snow showers in
the northern mountains later today and tonight, and even back
across the far northern tier of the forecast area for a time
this evening, in deeper moisture associated with stronger mid
level forcing. Any snow accumulation will be limited to the
higher mountainous terrain and windward slopes, where an inch or
two is possible.

Winds will strengthen and become gusty in the wake of the front
later today and tonight, with peak gusts around 20 mph across
the lowlands this afternoon, diminishing tonight, but gusts
increasing to around 40 mph across the higher ridges tonight.

Low level cold advection behind the front this evening quickly
reverses to warm advection overnight. Ridge top temperatures
level off, even increase as a result, keeping wind chills from
getting any lower than minus five or so there.

Temperatures were adjusted a little upward early this morning,
and again tonight, in an atmosphere that remains well mixed
until overnight tonight. Trended a little higher with dewpoints
early this morning into today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

Overall, warmer and drier over the weekend. Any lingering snow
showers will taper off by early Saturday morning across the
northern mountains, as drier air takes hold. High pressure, with
a warm southerly flow, and building upper heights, will allow
temperatures Saturday and Sunday to top out in the mid to upper
40s. A weak disturbance crossing on Sunday, will allow for light
rain showers, but overall, minimal impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Warmer temperatures, along with unsettled weather for the long
term period. Another system will affect the area in the Monday
night through Tuesday night time frame. Enough warm air will be
in place that all precipitation should start out as rain, but
transition to a light rain/snow mix across the northern
mountains late Tuesday night. Gusty winds expected with this
system, particularly Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
with dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with another system
at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

A weak wave is moving over the region. This wave is creating
a large hole in the VFR/MVFR stratus deck. The stratus deck
will gradually raise some this afternoon with the hole
propagating with the upper level wave. Some cold air advection
behind the wave will allow for some weak upslope this evening in
the northern WV mountains. This will allow the stratus deck to
solidify on the western slopes of the mountains and lower some
this evening. Later tonight, the stratus deck will gradually
dissipate as warm air advection sets in. After the stratus deck
dissipates, VFR conditions can be expected for Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow showers could cause restrictions in
northeastern WV this evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY



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