Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011957
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/FLOW INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT
STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY EVENING.  MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND.  REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO LIFT/BREAKUP TODAY LENDING TOWARDS THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO LOW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SITUATED IN EASTERN OHIO. REGARDLESS...MOST STRATUS IS
BREAKING/LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK... SO WE STILL MAY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE OVER THE CURRENTLY CLOUDY PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA NEAR KENNA AND BUFFALO.

A RETURN TO FOGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET ON
THE WEATHER FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD AS L/W TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS FROM
THE WRN CONUS TO THE ERN CONUS...DRIVING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MAIN FEATURE DOWN ON FRI BUT ONLY ON
THE ORDER OF A FEW HOURS.  THIS MOVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS...HAVE ADDED
GUSTY WINDS TO THE THUNDERSTORM FCST GIVEN 50 KTS MEAN MID LAYER
FLOW...A GRANDE OF CAPE AND STRONGLY FORCED LIFT.  LEAD S/W TROUGH
OVER UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS OUT...SECOND S/W TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS FRI AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON MAIN TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI NT AND SAT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY CLOSING OFF JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES FRI NT.
THIS GIVES RISE TO COLDER SOLN FOR SAT...WITH AT LEAST SCHC POPS
ACROSS THE N AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.  NOT YET CODED...BUT THE VERY
HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD SEE THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE UPCOMING 2014/2015
SEASON GIVEN H85 TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -2C.

BLENDED IN THE MET FOR LOWS THU NT AND HIGHS FRI...A LITTLE LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THU NT AND A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUS FRI WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.  BLENDED
IN NAM / GFS MODEL DATA FOR FRI NT AND SATURDAY AS THE SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE CHARGES THROUGH.  ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP SAT
AND SAT NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD THIS PERIOD AS THE SWD EXTENT OF
THE L/W SLOWLY RETREATS.  THIS RESULTS IN GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.  MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF REINFORCING
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FOLLOWED WPC IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MON
INTO TUE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN THEREAFTER.  BLENDED IN WPC
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS FROM KHTS TO KCKB. MOST
SHOULD ERODE AWAY BEFORE NIGHTFALL. WITH FORECASTED CLEARING SKIES
WE ARE BRINGING IFR FOG TO THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THOUGH THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXTENT AND TIMING BECAUSE OF THE
SLOW BURN OFF TODAY. PLUS GENERAL ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY HUMID AND
CLOSE TO SATURATION AT MULTIPLE LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A STRATUS DECK COULD REFORM AND SLIDE
SOUTH...REMOVING THE FOG THREAT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JW










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