Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 201729
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
129 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front late
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Cooler and drier for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

Weak high pressure keeps the CWA dry and warm today. A minor
impulse at 500 mb passes to our north overnight though trended
towards SREF and GFS ensembles keeping the forecast dry. There
should be fog again in the river valleys overnight though the
impulse and a full day of sun today may lessen the density and
extent overnight. Despite this, still kept a general mention of
fog in the river valleys.

Monday high pressure holds on albeit weakly, but should be
enough to keep us dry again with minimal cloud cover except in
the mountains where daytime heating may be enough to spark a few
isolated showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Accounting for the eclipse in the temperature grids on Monday
afternoon by using modest hourly temperature reductions from
18-20Z given the sky cover in the 20-35 percent range.

Digging trough aloft into the Great Lakes will drive an airmass
changing cold front late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with
increasing flow out ahead of the system. Better dynamics will be
further northeast of the area, but thunderstorms are possible
upon entrance into the CWA late Tuesday, but will erode as the
front moves through in the late evening/overnight time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Should run 10-15 degrees cooler in both temperature and dewpoint
in the wake of the front as Canadian high pressure brings
pressure rises back into the middle Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. The western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough
setup will persist, with high pressure holding through the
weekend. The long term will be largely dry, with temperatures
very gradually ticking upwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z Sunday thru 12Z Monday...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Weak high pressure for VFR until more river valley fog after
10Z before a return to VFR again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low to medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of river
valley fog tonight could vary.  Mid level impulse may mix up
BL moisture field a bit for a different fog pattern tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/26
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JW


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