Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON.   FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE FILTERED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
THERE A FEW DEGREES.

AT 2245Z...VAD WINDS AT 925 MB STILL FM THE NNE.  RAP MODEL QUICKLY
VEERS THE 925 MB FLOW TO EAST BY 06Z.  THUS CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT.  WILL FAVOR CLOUDS OVER FOG FOR
THE UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

DEW POINTS THE HIGHEST CRW ON SOUTH NEAR SUNSET.  THINKING THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL FOG...FORMING FIRST OVER THE
HEADWATERS OF THE TUG FORK AND GUYANDOTTE RIVER VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. NAM IS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE
FASTEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST...AND THE SREF
AND CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. UPPER AIR SUPPORT WOULD LEND TOWARD A
SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MODEL SUPPORT...WILL STAY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...50/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM





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