Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY.
DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

FRONT APPEARS TO BE READY TO CROSS THE OH RIVER AS OF 230Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE ARE HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W
LOWLANDS. AS SUCH...THINK THESE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT INTO HTS-CRW
METRO AREAS NEXT FEW HRS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MUCH OF THE SHRA/TSRA FOCUSED ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HRS...SLIDING INTO N MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...HAVE JUST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS EVE. KEEP SCHC POPS
IN THRU MORNING WITH THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SE. EXPECT AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WHERE IT HAS RAINED. ALSO THINK SOME LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM LATE ACROSS C AND S ZONES. THIS WILL SCT OUT BY MID MORNING.
KEPT AREA POP FREE TOMORROW PER LATEST HI RES MODELS AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SAGGING S INTO TN VALLEY/NC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE
IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV
COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES.
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONGOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW RELATIVELY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST MODEL RUNS. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH THE STATIONARY DIFFUSE
FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH. BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ITS
ASSOC SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING NE-WARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT MAINLY TO OUR WEST BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS APPEARS
APPRECIABLY LATER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS...WITH THE BULK OF THE
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE NOW REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT POOLING LLVL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WARRANTS THE CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF
1.60IN AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF NEAR 10KFT...ALONG WITH VERY SLOW
CONVECTIVE MOTION UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE...A FEW
STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS LATE FRI AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AREA WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND A FEW LOW 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT MAKES ITS MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WIND SHIFTING FROM E/SE TO S BY 12
SAT...AND TO THE SW BY 18Z SAT. UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO TURN SW AS WELL
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF TO THE EAST.  STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP TRANSLATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-12Z
SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS` LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS AND AREA
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A LATE-DAY
SHIFT IN BL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AIDING CONVERGENCE...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY-IDENTICAL TO FRIDAY/S...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER...WITH NEAR 90F THE GENERAL RULE FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
CURRENT AREA OF TSHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS
AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN RAIN
ARE STARTING TO SEE FOG DEVELOP...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATED LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EAST
OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH FOG. BREAKING
IT DOWN...THINK PKB SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE STRATUS AND HAVE DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING. AT HTS...HAVE DENSE FOG RIGHT NOW...BUT THINK AS
STRATUS MOVES IN...FOG MAY THIN A BIT. AT CKB...ANTICIPATE STRATUS
DEVELOPING SOON...BUT POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT IN TIME FOR FOG TO
START DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT CRW...EKN AND BKW...HIT
STRATUS PRETTY HARD...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG AS WELL DUE TO
RECENT RAIN. AREAS WITH FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE IN THE MORNING...WHERE AS STRATUS COULD HANG ON THROUGH
MID MORNING. BY AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING THEN HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ








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