Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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257
FXUS61 KRLX 251355
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
955 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry today. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase
Sunday and again late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Saturday...

It is a warm start to the day with many places already in the
mid 60s. Based on trends and latest guidance, elected to bump up
highs a bit from previous forecast. While we will deal with
cirrus for much of the day, current thinking is the higher
guidance should be attainable given H925 temps are pegged to be
3 C warmer than yesterday.

As of 400 AM Saturday...

Warm today despite a prevalence of mid to upper level clouds.
Increasing instability and pockets of upper level vorticity
maxima in the warm sector have a very low chance of sparking a
few stray showers today, so have largely left them out of the
forecast. Some model guidance does suggest their occurrence
which shows overall confidence even in the short term is low for
the binary PoP.

Fire weather is a bit of a concern with obs being well below
guidance for RH and similarly well above guidance for temps. So
will have to keep an eye on this today. Winds seem to be light
enough to not warrant any headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday as low pressure at
the surface and aloft into the Great Lakes. The negatively
tilted system will pull moisture into the region, although there
will be some downsloping too across the western slopes and
lowlands. The combination of 40-50kts bulk shear and around
500J/kg CAPE will yield the potential for at least isolated
strong to severe storms. NAMnest, WRFARW and WRFNMM all in
decent agreement bringing a round of thunderstorms into the tri-
state region around 18Z Sunday. Will place mention of potential
damaging winds and hail in HWO for area outlined by SPC
marginal risk.

Drop POPs down to slight chance on Monday. GFS is much faster
than ECMWF and NAM on the next surface low, thus did not go
completely dry Monday. This system doesn`t look as strong as
Sundays, with just an open wave aloft instead of a closed low.
However, still have likely POPs Tuesday...along and east of the
Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Not a whole lot of confidence through the long term as GFS and ECMWF
offer different solutions. Both show a drier period Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning. At that point, the GFS brings a
quick moving system through -- passing it south of the CWA and
pulling a shot of cold air down.  GFS shows about -4C 850mb temps
for Friday. The ECMWF is much slower, with an upper low closing off
over the upper Mississippi Valley, the surface low much farther
west, and +12C 850mb temps across CWA on Friday. Stuck very close to
consensus guidance with no strong feeling either way.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 625 AM Saturday...

VFR today with a broken deck of mid to high clouds. Light
winds. Cold front crosses Sunday with increasing chances for
MVFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and
Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night
as the rain ends.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JW/26



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