Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011449 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1049 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TODAY. A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN PULLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS TODAY ON UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER APPARENT DEFORMATION
ZONE SUGGESTED IN NAM12 AND NEAR TERM MODELS ACTUALLY SETS UP.

630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WILL BE TRACKING S SYS ROUNDING BASE OF MEAN TROF THIS MORNING
AND TRACKING THRU NC/VA PIEDMONT TODAY. WHILE WEAK SFC
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...CLOSED LOW IN THE H85 TO
H7 LAYER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPING TO TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE W.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS AN UNSETTLED DAY E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM
SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MAGNITUDE OF LLJ AND W EXTENT OF
RAINS...ALONG THE I79 CORRIDOR. GFS...HI RES WRF MODELS AND
REGIONAL GEM FOCUS MUCH OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. SO WHILE
SOME STEADIER RAINS MAY SNEAK INTO SW VA AND SE WV PLATEAU THIS
MORNING...THINK BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS TO COAST TODAY. HAVING
SAID THAT...STILL A GOOD BET OF SCT SHRA ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH CHANCES TAILING OFF ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. STILL
SEEING SIGNS OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING W INTO SE OH IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THUNDER IN ACROSS
W LOWLANDS/NE KY/SE OH LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUITE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE HAVING PULLED
E OF THE CWA. GIVEN VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DENSE FOG TONIGHT TRICKY.

STAYED CLOSE TO IN HOUSE LOCAL MOS AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH WARMER THEME ALONG AND W OF OH RIVER. STAYED ON WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE TROUGH WILL SUPPLY SOME UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS...SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING IN
THE WEST. BY MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FINALLY RISE TO NORMAL OR EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE LOWERING CIGS TODAY E SLOPES WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS GETTING
INTO KBKW IN INCREASING MOIST SE FLOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SHRA AND AREAS OF -RA MAY SKIRT SW VA/SE
WV THIS MORNING POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBKW TERMINAL BUT KEPT
PREDOMINATE VSBY IN VFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE HAVE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TDY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
SHRA MENTION. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE KHTS/KPKB AFTER
18Z.

PRECIP CHANCES WIND DOWN TONIGHT BUT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD
COVER...CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH FOR DENSE FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS FOR KBKW IN QUESTION
TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30







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