Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 222329
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
729 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and
east Tuesday/Tuesday night. Upper level low brings chances of
showers Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 725 PM Monday...
No significant changes necessary. Previous forecast on track.

As of 205 PM Monday...

No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Did
introduce slightly more cloud cover in the sky grids to account
for lingering clouds and streaming cirrus. Otherwise, forecast
is on track.

As of 1050 AM Monday...

Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with
other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights
clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in
the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as
a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the
pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on
the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into
the 60s and 70s this afternoon.

Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of
an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how
far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio
River with the best chance of showers in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM Monday...

A weak low pressure system will move off to the east Tuesday night
as a slow moving upper level low pressure system approaches from the
west. This upper level system will bring a cold front through the
area Wednesday afternoon and evening, providing a band of showers
and thunderstorms. The front will be followed by the upper low on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 324 PM Monday...

Showers should end on Friday as the upper level low pulls off. The
dry weather will be brief however, as the models are showing a warm
front for Saturday. For Sunday and Monday, some considerable
differences exist in the models, so confidence in the forecast
declines.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM Monday...

Lots of uncertainty on the aviation forecast, namely tonight and
the concern as to whether or not fog will form. There is quite a
bit of cloud cover streaming into the area out ahead of a low
pressure system across the south, and this may hinder fog
development. Went ahead and kept period of IFR tonight in KEKN,
but elsewhere limited fog development/potential to MVFR at
worst.

-shra will form across the region on Tuesday, particularly after
 12Z. Expect brief MVFR conditions in -shra. In addition, with a
 southeasterly flow developing across the region, will see the
 development of widespread MVFR ceilings across eastern slopes
 of the higher terrain after 16Z, affecting site KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low particularly concerning fog potential
tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog may vary
overnight. Timing on lower cigs and SHRA may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Increasing chance of MVFR to IFR in SHRA through mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/DTC
NEAR TERM...SL/DTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL


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