Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 240531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME PATCHY MVFR
VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW
AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL



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