Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 241754
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
154 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with warm temperatures and increasing humidity by
Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into
Thursday with isolated storms. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear
night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored
deeper valleys.

Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge
axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the
flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may
trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly
across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying
down with the loss of heating.

Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout.  With its
axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday
into Saturday.

Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers
and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances.  Was even slower
introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the
initial weakening disturbance aloft.  Was not too keen on thunder
chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a
slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty.

Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have
pops no higher than 40 percent at this time.

By Friday...you can forget about looking west.  Main interest will
be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to
indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into
Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z
run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there.

Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90
degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river
valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green
vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on
Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum
temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same
flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature
from rising above that observed on Friday.

So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather,
especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level
ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and
then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area
remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by
then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and
Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday
given the breaking down of the ridge.

The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least
subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the
coastal Carolinas.

Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of
the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions during the period with light surface winds.
Patchy MVFR valley fog...generally after 09z...in deeper mountain
valleys at sites such as KCRW and KEKN...with a couple hours of
IFR fog possible at KEKN Wednesday morning. Any fog will dissipate
after 12-13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 09Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL


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