Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
FXUS61 KRLX 251911
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
311 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Low pressure system moves off the Carolinas coast loosing its
grip on our weather. Brief high pressure builds tonight and
Wednesday. Next cold front Thursday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...
As the upper level low over the Carolinas moves northeast off the
Atlantic coast, winds aloft will decrease and back from the west
southwest, ahead of an approaching cold front. This winds will bring
warm and moist air mass to the area. With near calm winds and enough
low level moisture and skies clearing, expect areas of dense fog
mainly along the river valleys overnight tonight.
A brief high pressure builds over the OH Valley Wednesday providing
dry conditions from tonight through Wednesday night.
The next cold front approaches Thursday with chance for showers or
storms ahead of the front. The actual front crosses Thursday night
with additional convection.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...
S/W ridging breaks down Thursday with a subsequent front
entering into the area during the evening hours. There looks to
be some convective activity in the afternoon with a prefrontal
trof crossing. The actual front looks to become rather diffuse
once into the area Thursday night with the threat for showers
lingering across the northern mountains overnight.
Southerly flow quickly becomes reestablished across the region
on Friday as the next upstream system organizes across the lower
MS Valley. Temps will run quite a bit above average during the
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...
This weekend looks kind of dicey as the eventually succumbs to
upper level ridging downstream of an amplifying system across
the Southern Plains. As a result there will be some
showers/storms around the first half of Saturday along a
developing warm front especially across northern zones, before
ridging shifts the action north of here. The ridge axis shifts
to the East Coast on Sunday, putting the area in broad
southwesterly flow with the threat for afternoon showers/storms.
The aforementioned amplified system will shift into the upper
Midwest on Monday with a strong front crossing sometime later
Monday. Temps will continue to run above normal.
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 11 AM Tuesday...
Radar images show rain showers have diminished or dissipated
across central WV by 18Z. SFC obs suggest post rain IFR
ceilings that should last for two more hours. Vfr conditions
will prevail over the rest of sites through 03Z.
Low pressure center over the Carolinas will move northeast off
the Atlantic coast tonight. A brief high pressure builds over
the OH Valley tonight and Wednesday allowing for mostly clear
skies. Abundant low level moisture, near calm winds and clear
skies will allow for fog development mainly along river valleys
and over areas that received the rain. IFR/LIFR conditions
possible at CRW, EKN and HTS during the predawn hours.
By Wednesday morning, any fog will quickly dissipate to provide
widespread VFR conditions through the rest of the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of fog or mist tonight may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H L L L L H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H H M L L M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H L
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.