Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 300717
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
300 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will bring unsettled wet weather through
Friday night. Dry slot moves over this weekend, lowering chances for
showers. High pressure early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Upper low spinning to our west creating a favorable environment for
showers and thunderstorms.

Radar shows steady rainfall has been training over the far
northeastern counties, but not at a high enough rate to warrant any
headlines. Most gages clocking in at around 0.30"/hr which is
sustainable rate given our stretch of dry weather.  Will continue to
monitor the area for flash flooding potential, but at the current
time it looks under control. Otherwise, a few isolated showers over
the remainder of the area.

Great model consensus on another round of convection develop this
morning as atmosphere destabilizes. Additional rainfall amounts of
an inch are possible with this round of convection. Rain activity on
the decrease this afternoon/evening as upper low oscillates
northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Will still be dealing with pesky upper low through much of the short
term period.  Models in decent agreement with it drifting back north
and then northeast as we head into next week. Overall, it looks like
the CWA should be in the dry slot for much of the period with just
some low POPs along and west of the Ohio River, and in the WV
mountainous counties both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Eventually
may need to bump POPs up some on Sunday as a lobe of vorticity
rotates around the upper low crossing CWA during the afternoon.
Granted, not a hole lot of solar heating to provide extra
instability with plenty of clouds in place.  Temperatures stay
fairly close to normal for early October. Used a blend of
US consensus and the ECMWF MOS for temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Thursday...

Period will begin with pesky upper low moving away from the
region. Upper level ridge will build in as an upper level trof
approaches from the west. Models differ on the track of Tropical
Storm Matthew. GFS has the system moving along the North Carolina
coast while the ECMWF has it well to the south. Current thinking
is to follow WPC timing which is close to that of the GFS.

End result should be dry weather Sunday night through Tuesday
before the flow around Matthew begins to push some moisture
westward into the mountains. This increasing moisture could
result in some afternoon/evening showers and storms in the
northern mountains Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Like the previous shift mentioned, a messy aviation night. Areas
of +RA bringing IFR to portions of the forecast area while areas
that have partial clearing will likely see IFR fog. Showers will
me moving through the area and may mix the fog into stratus.
Conditions should improve towards daybreak, but another round of
showers possible today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of showers and storms
today and resultant MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary from forecast.
Amendments likely.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    L    M    L    M    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Areas of IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday, and in dense fog Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.