Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 082339
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
639 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system
crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 PM Thursday...

Dropped the overnight lows in the mountains a couple degrees, but
otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast package this
evening.

As of 200 PM Thursday...

Brief sfc high pressure remains in control this evening with VFR
conditions. Models suggest strong cold advection tonight. This,
together with radiational cooling where it clears will produce
temperatures from the low 20s lowlands to the single digits for
elevations higher than 3000 feet.

Winds turn northwest to set up upslope snow showers mainly over
elevations greater than 3kft.

Used a blend of all models for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Flurries and snow showers should be confined to the northern
mountains Friday night with a lingering strato/stratocu deck
holding firm elsewhere. This should keep overnight lows up a bit
from what MOS guidance is suggesting...though still quite cold.

The stratocu will erode from southwest to northeast on Saturday
with sunshine becoming more prevalent across the region. Temps
will still be cold though, with only a slight improvement from
Friday.

Attention then turns to Sunday, where models are beginning to
converge on a synoptic solution regarding the next system. A
surface low will eject out of the Southern Plains Sunday with a
developing warm front extending pretty far to the northeast, into
the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through
the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic
lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Where
this warm front sets up will ultimately determine the extent of
wintry precip over the area. There is some consensus on this
staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of
southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light
snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. As
such have some minor accumulations coded up for those locales.
This is still a low confidence forecast despite an emerging
consensus, primarily due to how close the warm front will be and
the extent of WAA from the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Thursday...

The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the
volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a
reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 PM Thursday...

Lower level stratocumulus starting to fill in over the northern
part of West Virginia, but this is a slow process, and the onset
is still yielding VFR ceilings. Expect this to gradually change to
a 2-3kft deck generally after 03Z Friday or so, with light snow
developing over the higher elevations to the northeast, including
EKN, and a few flakes also at CKB, but no prevailing at CKB. Wind
gusts to continue in the 15-25kt range, gradually subsiding
through Friday, although terminals further south will see the
winds decrease sooner.

Ceilings return to VFR after 16Z Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may
vary tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    L    L    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26


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