Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 030741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
341 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW CONTINUES. SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WV EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP ALONG RIVER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOG FORMATION WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THEY WERE SIMILAR TO
THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CAUSING WEAK FLOW GIVING WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THESE WOULD BE SLOW MOVERS...WITH A LOCAL DOWNPOUR.
OVERALL THOUGH...THE AREA REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN
THROUGH LABOR DAY AND SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE HARD PRESSED TO FORM ON
LABOR DAY AS A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. WEAK VORT
MAXES CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE REGION...BUT THEIR WHEREABOUTS
ARE ERRATIC AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO DENT THE RIDGE BY
DAY 7/TUESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THE
FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY
IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SITES RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND ALREADY
SHOWING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT 05Z. THE QUESTION IS IF
THESE CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH. THE TREND IS THAT THEY ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENTER
SOUTHEAST OH. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT PKB...EKN...HTS AND CKB QUICKLY LIFTING TO
VFR BY 12-13Z.

OTHER SITES COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER AFTER
09-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS RUNNING MEDIUM PER POSSIBLE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SIMILAR INSTABILITY WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 35 TO 40 THSD 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY. OF
COURSE...ANY STORM WILL HAVE BRIEF IFR. JUST CODED VCTS FOR MOST
SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 09/03/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY
RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING 06Z TO 13Z TIME FRAMES FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...FB/KTB
AVIATION...ARJ


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