Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 222340
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
540 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Surface low pressure continues to exit northeast Kansas moving
northeast towards the Great Lakes region. Gusty northwest winds
have been seen through the afternoon with gusts around 40mph
observed as a tight pressure gradient is observed over the area.
Light to moderate snow/rain has been falling across north central
Kansas this afternoon making its way east as it rotates counter-
clockwise around the low pressure. The greatest snowfall totals
still look to be in north central Kansas and near the
Kansas/Nebraska border, with amounts just over two inches
expected with locally higher amounts. Advisory has been expanded a
few more hours in time and farther eastward, to capture
additional snowfall amounts in windy conditions that will likely
have some impact on school and work commutes.

Still expect hazardous road conditions and lower visibilities as
this snow falls due to the high wind speeds between 20-25 mph
sustained through midnight. As precipitation moves northeast out
of the area, a changeover to all snow will be seen as temperatures
fall below freezing. Expect all snow to come to an end after
midnight tonight. There could still be some slick spots on any
untreated, wet roads so cautious travel is advised.

Winds decrease overnight as the low departs and lows will fall into
the low to mid-20s.  Skies clear from west to east with mostly clear
skies expected shortly after sunrise. Dry conditions will persist
tomorrow with diurnal heating bringing temperatures into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Weather pattern quiets considerably for the extended period as
temperatures slowly moderate into the late week. A weak passing
shortwave trof Tuesday night shifts winds around to the west then
southwest for Wednesday. After a night of lows in the 20s, highs
rise into the upper 40s, with lows the following night holding in
the upper 20s to low 30s as southwest surface winds continue. By
Thursday and Friday, highs rise into the middle to upper 50s and
lows rise to above freezing by Thursday night. Upper trof that was
more amplified in previous runs of both the GFS and EC for Friday
has dampened, with resulting lesser impact on temperatures and
lower rain chances for late Friday.

Highs progged in the middle to upper 40s for the weekend behind the
passing upper trof, which is still above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Timing of ending of precipitation and cloud trends are the main
challenges. HRRR is largely in step with with radar trends in
shrinking and weakening of snow as the deep system exits the
central Plains. There is a trend toward a shallow stratus deck
lingering into the last half of this forecast, but too little
confidence in this given upstream observations to extend MVFR
cigs yet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ008>011-020>023-034>038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65


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