Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2014

            Oct 23     Oct 24     Oct 25
00-03UT        4          4          3
03-06UT        3          3          3
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        3          3          2
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a G1-minor storm period for days
one through three (23-25 Oct) as high speed stream effects persist.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2014

              Oct 23  Oct 24  Oct 25
S1 or greater   35%     40%     45%

Rationale: There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) level for the next three days
(23-25 Oct) as Region 2192 moves into an increasingly threatening
position on the solar disk over the remainder of the period.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 22 2014 1428 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2014

              Oct 23        Oct 24        Oct 25
R1-R2           95%           95%           95%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares are expected with R3 (Strong)
activity likely over the next three days (23-25 Oct) due to an increase
in magnetic complexity within Region 2192.



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