Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 311231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Aug 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2016

            Aug 31     Sep 01     Sep 02
00-03UT        2          3          3
03-06UT        2          4          2
06-09UT        1          3          2
09-12UT        1          3          3
12-15UT        2          3          3
15-18UT        2          3          3
18-21UT        3          3          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day one (31
Aug) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2016

              Aug 31  Sep 01  Sep 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2016

              Aug 31        Sep 01        Sep 02
R1-R2            5%           10%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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