Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 271231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 27-Jan 29 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 27-Jan 29 2015

            Jan 27     Jan 28     Jan 29
00-03UT        3          2          3
03-06UT        3          2          3
06-09UT        3          2          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        3          2          3
15-18UT        3          2          3
18-21UT        3          2          3
21-00UT        4          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2015

              Jan 27  Jan 28  Jan 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 26 2015 1653 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2015

              Jan 27        Jan 28        Jan 29
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for an isolated (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
radio blackout over the next three days (27-29 Jan) with Regions 2268,
2271, 2273, and 2275 being the main sources for any increased activity.



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