Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 171231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Aug 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2017

            Aug 17     Aug 18     Aug 19
00-03UT        3          5 (G1)     3
03-06UT        2          4          4
06-09UT        5 (G1)     3          3
09-12UT        5 (G1)     3          3
12-15UT        6 (G2)     3          2
15-18UT        4          3          3
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          3

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) storms are expected on day one (17 Aug), and G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storms expected on days one and two (17-18 Aug) due
to CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2017

              Aug 17  Aug 18  Aug 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2017

              Aug 17        Aug 18        Aug 19
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on all three days (17-19 Aug) due to the flare potential of
Region 2671.


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