Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Nov 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 28-Nov 30 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 28-Nov 30 2014

            Nov 28     Nov 29     Nov 30
00-03UT        1          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          1
06-09UT        0          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 28-Nov 30 2014

              Nov 28  Nov 29  Nov 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 28-Nov 30 2014

              Nov 28        Nov 29        Nov 30
R1-R2           35%           40%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: An increasing chance for an M-class flare
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) exists during the period (28-30 Nov),
particularly from Regions 2219, 2221 and 2222.  This is based on these
three regions magnetic complexity and steady growth.



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