Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-
061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-201200-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
427 PM EST THU MAR 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...

THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKELEY COUNTY
LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS
SOUTH CAROLINA...

AND THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

            ...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...

OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING MARCH 19 2015. THE HYDROLOGIC AREA
RECEIVED ON AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. PLEASE SEE
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP FOR MORE DETAILS.

            ...SOIL MOISTURE...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID MARCH 17 2015 SHOWED NO AREAS IN
DROUGHT PLEASE SEE DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.

             ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...

THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF MARCH 19
2015 INDICATED STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF
GEORGIA. THE AREAS THAT WERE BELOW NORMAL WERE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS. PLEASE SEE WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS.

             ...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

LAKE THURMOND...
MAR 19 2015    328.4 FEET
MAR  5 2015    328.9 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.5 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD...
MAR 19 2015    437.5
MAR  5 2015    436.6 FEET
DIFFERENCE  PLUS 0.9 FEET

LAKE MURRAY...
MAR 19 2015    358.1 FEET
MAR  5 2015    358.0 FEET
DIFFERENCE PLUS 0.1 FEET

LAKE MARION...
MAR 19 2015     75.2 FEET
MAR  5 2015     75.8 FEET
DIFFERENCE  MINUS 0.6 FEET

LAKE WATEREE...
MAR 19 2015     97.6 FEET
MAR  5 2015     98.0 FEET
DIFFERENCE  MINUS 0.4 FEET

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...
SCE&G...SANTEE COOPER AND DUKE ENERGY.

       ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

NEAR TERM...THROUGH MONDAY MARCH 26 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS 0.75 TO
2.00 INCHES ARE FORECAST. PLEASE SEE THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT WEATHER.GOV/CAE.

THE 6- TO 10-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 25 TO MARCH 29
INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

THE 8- TO 14-DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 27 TO
APRIL 2 INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2015 INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE
...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND JUNE INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES
OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON TEMP/PRECIP OUTLOOKS.

                 ...SUMMARY...

THE UPDATED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED FROM NOAA TODAY CALLS FOR
AN INCREASED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM APRIL THROUGH JUNE.

CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON THAT BEGAN IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY.
HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON ENDS IN LATE APRIL FOR
THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH APRIL.

LOOKING AT THE LONGER TERM FOR FACTORS THAT COULD INFLUENCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AN EL NINO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE. EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE THROUGH SUMMER 2015. PLEASE SEE WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS ON ENSO.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS APRIL 2
2015.

               ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE
CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
INTERNET ADDRESS CAEWX@NOAA.GOV

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