Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

REGIONALLY...PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS AVERAGED
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SELECT LOCALES RECEIVING ONLY 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL BUT OTHERS GETTING VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.

WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION...
AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WINTER...THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER
FLOODS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL YEAR...OR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF FEBRUARY 5 ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS ARE STILL NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...OVER THE NEXT TEN DAYS...WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW WEATHER PATTERN OCCURRING THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME...THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MAKING WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
LIMITED. THE WPC AND CPC FORECASTS ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...AN EL NINO WATCH
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF REACHING WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS
IS DECREASING. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO CONDITION...AS
WELL AS THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST...THERE ARE
EQUAL CHANCES AT BELOW...NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL. SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB
SITE FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR
20 FEB 2015

$$





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