Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 131918

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
318 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 8

This is the eighth in a series of annual Winter/Spring Flood
Potential Statements intended to provide insight into the
likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the
middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan
River basins. These statements will provide information on flood
threat conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture,
snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions,
streamflow, future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid from April 13-27, 2017.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.


RECENT PRECIPITATION - Normal to above norma1. Between 4.0 and
7.0 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days.
Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc(under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Normal. No snow is on the ground across the HSA.
Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be found
at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or
www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Normal. No ice has been reported across the HSA.

STREAMFLOW - Variable, below normal to above normal. Real time
water data is available from the United States Geological Survey
by visiting http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal to above normal. Soil moisture monitoring
charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s
Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from much
below normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found
at http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running below normal to normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - High pressure across the Great Lakes
region will build across the Middle Atlantic tonight before
shifting offshore later Friday. A warm front is expected to lift
to our north on Saturday. A cold front is then expected to track
across the region Sunday night followed by a secondary weaker cold
front on Monday. High pressure will build in from the northwest
on Tuesday before moving to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Low pressure and its associated warm front will then approach
later Wednesday. At this time, there are no strong indications of
any widespread heavy rain events for about the next week.

The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for near normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall river flood potential is normal.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:



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