Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
201 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTH
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...


INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE 2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA FOR NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  THIS ISSUANCE OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.


ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...

THE AUTUMN OF 2014 OBSERVED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.  DURING THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER OF 2014 AND 2015
(DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28)...AREA OBSERVERS CONTINUED TO
REPORT NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS WINTER
REPORTED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HELD
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LOSSES LOWER THAN USUAL.

DURING THE LAST HALF OF FEBRUARY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
MARCH...REPEATED ARCTIC AIR INCURSIONS AS WELL AS AN ACTIVE STORM
TRACK DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JETSTREAM
RESULTED IN PLENTIFUL PRECIPITATION.  THIRTY DAY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FROM EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH THIS ISSUANCE TODAY RANGED FROM
NEAR THREE INCHES ACROSS LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY IN DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO UPWARDS OF NINE INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

AS A RESULT OF THE WET AND QUITE COOL WEATHER OF THE PAST THREE
WEEKS...AREA BAYOUS...RIVERS...AND LAKES CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY WITH THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF
MARCH.


METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

METEOROLOGICAL SPRINGTIME FROM MARCH 1 THROUGH MAY 31 IS NORMALLY
OUR WETTEST TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MAY AS THE WETTEST MONTH THAT
NORMALLY TALLIES FIVE TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL.

THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOW EQUAL
CHANCES FOR A WETTER VERSUS DRIER SPRINGTIME.  IN THE SHORT
TERM...BY MID MARCH NEAR MARCH 15TH...SEVERAL OF THE FORECAST MODELS
DEVELOP A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN IS ALMOST ALWAYS FAVORABLE FOR PLENTIFUL...IF NOT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.



RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGIC STATUS...

...AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL AREA WIDE THIS SPRING ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...


...RED RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...

TYPICAL SEASONAL AND MINOR FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING ON THE SULPHUR
RIVER IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ON BAYOU DORCHEAT IN NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA.  MINOR FLOODING JUST RECENTLY ALSO DEVELOPED ON PORTIONS
OF THE CYPRESS BASIN OF THE RED RIVER IN EAST TEXAS THAT INCLUDES
THE BLACK CYPRESS BAYOU.  FINALLY...TYPICAL SEASONAL AND MINOR HIGH
WATER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON BAYOU BODCAU AND RED CHUTE BAYOU IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH MID MONTH.

AREA RESERVOIRS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS
CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE TIMELY AND BOUNTIFUL RAINFALL OF THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.  LAKES BOB SANDLIN AND PAT MAYSE ROSE TO ABOVE
CONSERVATION POOL STAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE BEFORE THE GREAT
DROUGHT OF 2011.  JIM CHAPMAN LAKE IN NORTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR CONSERVATION POOL STAGE THROUGH
MID MONTH.  ONLY LAKE TEXOMA ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE RED RIVER
REMAINS BELOW CONSERVATION POOL STAGE BUT AT LEAST HAS GAINED A FEW
FEET DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS AS IT ALSO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
RECOVER FROM THE DROUGHT OF 2011.

ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE DURING THE PAST THREE WEEKS ROSE TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SPRING TIME.  OF COURSE...THE THREE WINTER
PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAS RECHARGED SUBSOIL MOISTURE AS WELL DURING
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AS THIS FROZEN PRECIPITATION MELTED RATHER SLOWLY
FOR THIS REGION OF THE UNITED STATES AND INFILTRATED THE SOIL
EFFECTIVELY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN HAS RISEN TO NEAR
AVERAGE THIS SPRING.


...OUACHITA RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS ALSO SHARED IN THE BOUNTIFUL RAINFALL
AND SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST THREE WEEKS.  SOUTH ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TALLIED FOUR TO UPWARDS OF NINE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST THIRTY DAYS.  ALSO A RESULT...THE
TYPICAL SPRINGTIME RISE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE OUACHITA
RIVER THROUGH MID MARCH.  THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
OUACHITA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES HAS RISEN TO AVERAGE POTENTIAL.


...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...

EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA TALLIED FOUR TO EIGHT
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST THIRTY DAYS.  AS A
RESULT...STAGES AND DISCHARGES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ROSE ON THE
SABINE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.  ALSO LAKE FORK AND LAKE TAWAKONI
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY AND STEADILY RISE TO NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE
CONSERVATION POOL STAGE AFTER RECEDING GREATLY FROM THE DROUGHT OF
2011.  THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SABINE RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES HAS RISEN TO AVERAGE POTENTIAL.


...NECHES AND ANGELINA RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

THE NECHES AND ANGELINA RIVER BASINS ALSO SHARED IN THE BOUNTIFUL
RAINFALL OF THE PAST THREE MONTHS TALLYING EIGHT TO SIXTEEN INCHES.
THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
SPRINGTIME.  THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE NECHES AND ANGELINA RIVER
BASINS REMAINS NEAR AVERAGE THIS SPRING.



PLEASE DIRECT QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS TO...

C. S. ROSS
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
(318) 631-3669

$$

VIII.





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