Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS63 KKRF 221354
ESGMTB

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
848 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014 Z

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BLUE R AT KC MO BLUERIDGE BLVD
KBRM7              35.0  40.0  42.0    13   17   <5    6   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT KC MO BANNISTER RD
KCCM7              34.0  40.0  42.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY 71 HWY MO
KNYM7              61.0  66.0  68.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLUE R AT KC MO 63RD ST
KAYM7              48.0  53.0  55.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY MO BLUE PKWY
KBPM7              33.0  38.0  44.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLUE R AT KC MO STADIUM DR
KSDM7              33.0  39.0  43.0     5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY 40 HWY MO
KSYM7              30.0  35.0  40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLUE R AT KC MO 17TH ST
KSVM7              24.0  25.0  27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLUE R AT KANSAS CITY MO 12TH ST
KCTM7              30.0  35.0  40.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT LAKE CITY MO
LKCM7              18.0  25.0  27.0    23   22    8    7   <5   <5
:CROOKED R AT RICHMOND MO 4N
RICM7              20.0  21.0  29.0    45   40   42   38   <5   <5
:WAKENDA CR AT CARROLLTON MO
CAXM7              16.0  19.0  21.0    39   37   34   33   32   30
:BLACKWATER R AT VALLEY CITY MO 1NW
VLYM7              22.0  25.0  31.0    48   51   39   40   20   17
:BLACKWATER R AT BLUE LICK MO
BLVM7              24.0  29.0  37.0    59   53   32   29   <5    8
:LAMINE R AT OTTERVILLE MO 1E
OTTM7              15.0  18.0  26.0    27   28   24   24   <5    6
:MONITEAU CR AT FAYETTE MO 6ESE
FYTM7              16.0  21.0  25.0    36   38   16   21   <5   <5
:PETITESALINE CR AT BOONVILLE MO 4SSE
BONM7              16.0  19.5  26.0    39   31   21   26   <5    8
:MOREAU R AT JEFFERSON CITY MO 3S
JCMM7              17.0  25.0  29.0    24   27   11   11    7    7
:MARIES R AT WESTPHALIA MO
WPHM7              10.0  15.0  20.0     8   12   <5    7   <5   <5
:GASCONADE R AT HAZELGREEN MO
HZLM7              21.0  26.0  30.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GASCONADE R AT JEROME MO
JRMM7              15.0  25.0  30.0     5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GASCONADE R AT RICH FOUNTAIN MO
RIFM7              20.0  25.0  30.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0726 Z DH12 /DC1407220848/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 7/26/2014 - 10/24/2014

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:BLUE R
KBRM7      26.1/   26.2/   26.6/   27.8/   32.1/   35.4/   38.1

:BIG BLUE R
KCCM7       7.2/    7.4/    8.6/   16.2/   27.8/   32.3/   35.4

:BLUE R
KNYM7      34.8/   35.0/   36.1/   41.9/   50.4/   53.4/   55.6
KAYM7      25.1/   25.2/   25.6/   28.5/   37.3/   41.6/   44.0
KBPM7      10.6/   10.9/   12.1/   18.2/   25.4/   27.9/   30.2
KSDM7       8.6/    8.8/    9.7/   18.5/   25.4/   29.9/   33.0
KSYM7       4.1/    4.4/    5.3/   10.6/   17.6/   21.6/   24.7
KSVM7       2.0/    2.1/    2.6/    7.5/   13.8/   17.5/   20.5
KCTM7       6.7/    7.1/    8.7/   16.1/   21.9/   25.8/   28.7

:LITTLE BLUE R
LKCM7       4.9/    5.0/    5.6/   10.5/   17.1/   23.4/   25.6

:CROOKED R
RICM7       5.8/    5.8/    7.3/   18.4/   24.0/   27.1/   28.0

:WAKENDA CR
CAXM7       3.4/    3.4/    5.4/   11.8/   23.9/   28.2/   33.0

:BLACKWATER R
VLYM7       4.3/    4.3/    9.4/   21.3/   30.0/   33.6/   37.6
BLVM7       8.2/    9.8/   14.9/   25.3/   31.5/   34.5/   35.2

:LAMINE R
OTTM7       1.1/    1.1/    1.3/    3.9/   16.3/   22.2/   25.5

:MONITEAU CR
FYTM7       3.5/    3.5/    6.2/   10.9/   19.1/   21.3/   22.7

:PETITESALINE CR
BONM7       3.2/    3.2/    4.7/    8.2/   18.7/   22.1/   22.9

:MOREAU R
JCMM7       1.5/    1.5/    2.7/    4.7/   16.5/   25.7/   31.7

:MARIES R
WPHM7       0.8/    0.8/    1.0/    1.5/    2.3/    7.5/   13.3

:GASCONADE R
HZLM7       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    2.9/    4.4/   10.9/   17.1
JRMM7       1.7/    1.7/    2.1/    3.0/    4.4/   11.8/   15.8
RIFM7       2.6/    2.6/    2.9/    3.6/    5.0/   12.7/   18.0

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$




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