Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Lower Mississippi RFC

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000
FGUS64 KORN 042233
ESGORN

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER...SLIDELL LA
433 PM CST WEDNESDAY MARCH 4 2015


LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY - SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
              NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER - SLIDELL...LA
        VALID FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5 2015



STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.


...INTRODUCTION....

OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURED OVER THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SNOW DEPTH IS
CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGES
FROM 2 TO 20 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SNOW DEPTH
RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 20 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN KENTUCKY. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND MISSOURI VALLEYS AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE OHIO AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

A SYSTEM THIS WEEK WILL PRODUCE A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND THE JUNCTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW OCCURRED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS WHICH HAS HELPED IMPROVE
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. MOST OF THE SNOW PACK IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI HAS MELTED AND
RUNOFF.

...MISSISSIPPI RIVER BELOW CHESTER IL AND OHIO RIVER BELOW
SMITHLAND DAM IL (WFO PAH/MEG/JAN/LIX)...

DURING THE EARLY WINTER, MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER WHILE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER
THE PAST TWO WEEKS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHICH HAS LED TO NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITONS
ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.
CURRENTLY MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPROACHING VICKSBURG.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:


                                             3/4
MISSISSIPPI RIVER              THEBES IL     65%
OHIO RIVER                      CAIRO IL     61%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             MEMPHIS TN     56%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER       ARKANSAS CITY AR     75%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER           VICKSBURG MS     87%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             NATCHEZ MS     96%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER   RED RIVER LANDING LA     76%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         BATON ROUGE LA     77%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER         NEW ORLEANS LA     74%
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER          SIMMESPORT LA     77%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, LOWER OHIO, AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF
ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT;
COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.

...FRENCH BROAD/UPPER PIGEON...LITTLE TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE AND HIWASSEE
BASINS (WFO GSP)...

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, THE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE MINIMAL SNOW DEPTHS
AND THE AMOUNTS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO ANY
FUTURE FLOODING.

THE STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE GENERALLY REFLECTIVE OF
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS. STREAMFLOW
AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT ARE NEAR NORMAL.

THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS INDICATES
1/2 TO 1 INCH OVER WEST NORTH CAROLINA.

NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE DAILY STREAMFLOWS ARE
GIVEN BELOW.

                                      1/7   1/21   2/4  2/18  3/4
FRENCH BROAD RIVER     ASHEVILLE NC   141%   65%   81%   67%  81%
PIGEON RIVER               HEPCO NC   122%   63%   84%   70% 123%
TUCKASEGEE RIVER     BRYSON CITY NC   105%   69%   77%   50% 161%
LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER  NEEDMORE NC   127%   55%   72%   68%  74%



BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES
FOR THE FRENCH BROAD...UPPER LITTLE TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE...AND
PIGEON RIVER BASINS.


...UPPER HOLSTON BASINS (WFO RNK)...

STREAMFLOWS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK.SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS ARE NORMAL DUE TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
TWO WEEKS. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                        1/7  1/21   2/4  2/18   3/4
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER        SALTVILLE VA    165%  55%  131%   52%  766%
MID FORK HOLSTON RVR  SEVEN MILE FORD VA   156%  64%   87%   43%  746%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE UPPER CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON RIVER BASINS.

...EAST TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY (WFO RNK/MRX/FFC)...

SEASONAL RAINFALL/SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED THIS WINTER FOR THE EAST
TENNESSEE VALLEY. STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DUE
TO THIS WEEKS PRECIPITATION EVENT. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR
NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE CLINCH AND POWELL RIVERS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
ARE GIVEN BELOW.


                                             3/4
CLINCH RIVER                CLEVELAND VA    872%
CLINCH RIVER                 TAZEWELL TN    546%
POWELL RIVER                   ARTHUR TN    584%
EMORY RIVER                   OAKDALE TN    360%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE FOR RESERVOIRS IN THE TENNESSEE BASIN ARE GIVEN
BELOW.


                                             3/4
                    ABOVE CHATTANOOGA TN     99%


...DUCK/BUFFALO/ELK RIVER BASINS (WFO OHX)...

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, THE PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOME MINOR RISES HAVE OCCURRED BUT THIS
IS TYPICAL FOR WINTER AND SPRING. CURRENTLY, STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR
NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.


                                             3/4
DUCK RIVER                   COLUMBIA TN    107%
DUCK RIVER                SHELBYVILLE TN    140%
BUFFALO RIVER              LOBELVILLE TN    115%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL CHANCES OF
SPRING RAINFALL...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BASINS.


...FLINT/PAINT ROCK/BIG NANCE BASINS (WFO HUN)...

PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL AND HAS CAUSED
ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS OVER NORTH ALABAMA BUT SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS
NEAR NORMAL. RIGHT NOW, NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.


                                              3/4
PAINT ROCK RIVER            WOODVILLE AL     169%
FLINT RIVER                BROWNSBORO AL     207%
BIG NANCE RIVER             COURTLAND AL     365%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN
ALABAMA BASINS.

...OBION/LOOSAHATCHIE/HATCHIE/WOLF BASINS (WFO MEG)...

OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS, HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS SEASONAL
FLOODING. RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS GENERATED SOME RISES IN WEST TENNESSEE
WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
ARE GIVEN BELOW.


                                             3/4
HATCHIE RIVER                 BOLIVAR TN    158%
WOLF RIVER                 GERMANTOWN TN    131%
LOOSAHATCHIE RIVER          ARLINGTON TN    281%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WESTERN TENNESSEE BASINS.

...ST FRANCIS RIVER BASIN (WFO MEG/PAH)...

HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ALONG
THE ST. FRANCIS RIVER WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING. STREAMFLOW ARE
CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS GENERALLY NORMAL.
MINOR FLODOING IS EXPECTED AT ST. FRANCIS, AR ALONG THE ST. FRANCIS RIVER.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                            2/18   3/4
ST. FRANCIS RIVER           PATTERSON MO     41%  156%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE ST. FRANCIS BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR
THE ST. FRANCIS RESERVOIRS ARE GIVE BELOW.


                                             2/18  3/4
                      WAPPAPELLO RES. MO     100% 100%



...BLACK/WHITE RIVER BASINS (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH/LZK/TSA)...

PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS LED TO MINOR
RISES ALONG THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS.  OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL BUT WITH THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION,
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT BLACK ROCK, AR AND PATTERSON, AR.
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOW AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             2/18  3/4
BLACK RIVER               ANNAPOLIS  MO       48%  77%
BLACK RIVER             POPLAR BLUFF MO       52% 225%
JAMES RIVER                   GALENA MO       39%  88%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BLACK AND WHITE BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE
IS GIVEN BELOW.


                                            2/18   3/4
                      CLEARWATER RES. MO    100%  100%
                          BEAVER RES. AR    100%  100%
                      TABLE ROCK RES. MO    100%  100%
                     BULL SHOALS RES. AR    100%  100%
                         NORFORK RES. AR    100%  100%
                    GREERS FERRY RES. AR    100%  100%

...LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN BELOW PINE BLUFF AR (WFO LZK)...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS BASIN.
OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER IS CURRENTLY
NEAR 25000 CFS WHICH IS 33% OF NORMAL COMPARED TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE
OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH. BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS
AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN.

...OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA (WFO LZK/SHV/JAN)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA.
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST FOR THATCHER LOCK & DAM. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/4
OUACHITA RIVER                 CAMDEN AR    282%
OUACHITA RIVER                 MONROE LA    143%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE
RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.


                                            3/4
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GRESSON AR    100%

 ...LOWER RED BASIN BELOW FULTON AR (WFO FWD/SHV/LCH)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF FULTON
ARKANSAS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED FROM ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPTIATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. UPPER RED BASIN AND OVERALL SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING AND EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RED RIVER BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE
RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/4
                          COOPER RES. TX    100%
                       TEXARKANA RES. TX     95%
                        LAKE O` PINES TX     96%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...A AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY.

...BIG BLACK BASINS IN MISSISSIPPI (WFO JAN)...

HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER THE PAST MONTH HAVE CAUSED SEASONAL
FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER BUT STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY
RECEDEEDING. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING
IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/4
BIG BLACK RIVER                  WEST MS     99%
BIG BLACK RIVER                BOVINA MS    179%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BIG BLACK RIVER BASIN.


...YAZOO BASIN IN MISSISSIPPI (WFO MEG/JAN)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE YAZOO RIVER
BASIN. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.


                                             3/4
                       ARKABUTLA RES. MS     80%
                          SARDIS RES. MS     87%
                            ENID RES. MS     83%
                         GRENADA RES. MS     83%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
YAZOO RIVER BASIN.

...CALCASIEU/MERMENTAU BASINS IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA (WFO LCH)...

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE CALCASIEU AND MERMENTAU BASINS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL.
SEASONAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS
AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
CALCASIEU RIVER              GLENMORA LA     111%
CALCASIEU RIVER                KINDER LA      97%
MERMENTAU RIVER             MERMENTAU LA     193%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MERMENTAU AND CALCASIEU BASINS.

...PEARL RIVER BASIN (WFO JAN LIX)...

OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAUSED FLOODING ACROSS
THE UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN HOWEVER ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER
THE UPPER PEARL RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
THE LOWER PEARL BASIN IS STILL SEEING RISES FROM UPSTREAM AND MINOR
FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A
PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
PEARL RIVER                  CARTHAGE MS     129%
PEARL RIVER                   JACKSON MS     146%
PEARL RIVER                MONTICELLO MS     179%
PEARL RIVER                  BOGALUSA LA     135%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL
PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER
BASIN.


...AMITE/COMITE/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS (WFO LIX)...

DURING THE WINTER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FEW DAYS HAS PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE
RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING
IS OCCURRING AND IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
AMITE RIVER                DARLINGTON LA     195%
AMITE RIVER            DENHAM SPRINGS LA     535%
COMITE RIVER             OLIVE BRANCH LA     392%
TCHEFUNCTE RIVER               FOLSOM LA     452%
TICKFAW RIVER                  HOLDEN LA     279%
TANGIPAHOA RIVER               ROBERT LA     282%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AMITE...COMITE...AND NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS.

...PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI (WFO JAN MOB LIX).....

BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER WINTER HAS LED TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. STREAMFLOWS
AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE PASCAGOULA
BASIN AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.


                                              3/4
LEAF RIVER                     MCLAIN MS     105%
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER        LEAKESVILLE MS     130%
PASCAGOULA RIVER              MERRILL MS     110%


BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL
PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASIN.

...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRINGFLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2015.





$$



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