Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 181243
ESGTIR

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
800AM EST WED JAN 18, 2017

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED IN OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE
DRAINAGE.

AN ELEVATED FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW
THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

METEOROLOGICALLY...AFTER AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AUTUMN...THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE THIS WINTER ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES KEEPING THE OHIO VALLEY WET AND PREVENTING PROLONGED
COLD SPELLS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

NO SNOW COVER EXISTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE AS OF
THIS WRITING NOR ICE ACCUMULATION ON RIVERS.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK/SUMMARY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE AS STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO HIT THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AFFECTING THE MID
LATITUDES INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER BASIN.

WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
ELEVATED IN OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE.
$$
WHEELER



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