Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 051618
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

JANUARY 5, 2017

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - As Of January 1 2017:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-December precipitation was 135 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 105 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
140 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. December precipitation was
195 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 160 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 195 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

December Streamflow was around 385 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
240 percent in the Gila, and 60 percent in the Little Colorado.

January 1st Snow:

January 1st snowpack conditions was 85 percent of average in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 15 percent of average in the upper Gila,
and 95 percent of average in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states were overall much below average at the
beginning of the water year. However, Conditions have improved by the
end of December. January through May runoff volumes are primarily influenced by
the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events.

Climate Conditions:

La Nina climate conditions suggest chances for below average precipitation
in Arizona.

Forecast Summary:

The January-May forecast volumes between 91 and 74 percent of median in
the Little Colorado Basin, 131 to 97 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, January-May volumes were between 147 to 105
percent. Note that the water supply forecast is high for a La Nina year.
This is due to higher than average current soil moisture along with an
active weather pattern not typically seen in a La Nina year.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy17/lc/lcjan.drv
Developed:                    Jan 1 2017

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Jan-Jun    5.7    80    8.5    6.2   3.60   1.60    7.1
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Jan-May   0.35    74    3.7    1.5   0.10   0.02   0.47
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Jan-May   12.7    91     56     25    6.9    2.4   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Jan-May     65   116    160     84     47     27     56
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Jan-May     80   105    220    114     58     35     76
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Jan-May     25   119     54     33   18.5    9.0     21
  Clifton                  Jan-May     67   110    180     95     45     22     61
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Jan-May    155   113    470    230    125     69    137
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Jan-May    140   147    430    190    100     47     95
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Jan-May    300    97    630    405    193     90    310
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Jan-May     55   131    180    114   38.0   15.0     42
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Jan-May    200   127    565    355    132     60    157

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      DECEMBER`16      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila            160             105
  Salt-Verde            195             135
  Little Colorado       195             140

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     JANUARY 1 2017
BASIN                  % Median

  Upper Gila              15
  San Francisco           15
  Salt-Verde              85
  Little Colorado         95

***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      DECEMBER`16
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                  240
  Salt-Verde            385
  Little Colorado        60

**************************************************************************


CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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