Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 161919
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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Showers and Thunderstorms on Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure will strengthen as it moves northeast
from the central plains, crossing upper Michigan Thursday Night.
Showers and thunderstorms will invade northern Michigan Thursday
morning, and persist off and on through the evening before ending.
Locally heavy rainfall is expected. Showery weather will persist
behind the departing system into Friday, especially in northwest
lower Michigan. Little if any precipitation is expected over the
weekend.

Southeast winds will increase on Thursday, becoming gusty at
times. Those winds will veer to the west by Friday, while
becoming somewhat gustier. Humidity levels will remain quite high
through Friday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-171100-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200,
                    then showers and chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........76-81 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (580).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.43-0.85 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers until
                    2000. chance of thunderstorms until 2300.
                    showers likely after 2000.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.22-0.47 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely until
                    0800, then chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........71-76 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (840).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.19 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-171100-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 1200, then showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (460).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.40-0.84 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    showers likely.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (190).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.39 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (840).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-171100-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 0200 until 0500, then chance of
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.11 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers until
                    0800, then showers. chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1100.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........76-81 percent...except 86-91 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (890).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.49-0.70 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms until 2000. showers
                    likely after 2000.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (300).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.14-0.30 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    until 0800, then chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (820).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.16 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-171100-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 0200 until 0500, then chance of
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.15 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers until
                    0800, then showers. chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1100.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1110).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.49-0.65 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms until 2000. showers
                    likely after 2000.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (330).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.14-0.29 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    until 0800, then chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (850).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-171100-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200,
                    then showers and chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.45-0.87 in.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    showers likely.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (340).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.18-0.35 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (840).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.12 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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