Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 221956
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
356 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...Warm and Breezy this Afternoon, but a Transition is Coming this
Evening...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving across the region this
afternoon, brining rain with it. Northeast lower Michigan will
have elevated fire conditions for a couple more hours, before the
rain and cooler air move into the area. Rain is over the western
part of the state and much cooler air is beginning to move onshore
near Lake Michigan near Sleeping Bear Dunes and the western part
of the Huron-Manistee forest. There will be a brief break from the
rain on the west side of the state, before the rain moves back
into the region and will stay over the region through Tuesday.

Temperatures the rest of this week will be a few degrees either
side of normal. Precipitation looks to be above normal into next
week.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
356 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Periods of rain
                    showers. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (130).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.29-0.49 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (150).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the south in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.73 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 21 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.44-1.30 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........72-77 percent...except 86-91 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1040).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.69 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
356 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400, then periods of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....48-53...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    west after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (130).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 24 mph becoming west around 9
                    mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.16-0.45 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Periods of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........81-86 percent...except 93-98 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.87 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain until 2400, then
                    rain likely.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (190).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.90-1.79 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely.
Max Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........68-73 percent...except 77-82 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 20 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1010).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.19-0.45 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
356 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400, then numerous rain showers. Patchy
                    fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....44-49...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.50 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler...except 12 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........67-72 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the southeast in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.39 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.88 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 12 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (930).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.43-0.65 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-230815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
356 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Periods of rain
                    showers. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.28-0.54 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east around
                    3 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.57 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.92 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........76-81 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (820).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.39-0.60 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
356 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Periods of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.19-0.51 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Periods of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (190).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.29-0.86 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.80-1.84 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........72-77 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (820).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.24-0.52 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
50. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JL


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