Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 312105
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
505 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...BREEZY AND COLD CONTINUES...

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
JUST A FEW MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLAKES IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY...READINGS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-010900-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
505 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25...EXCEPT 28-33 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 24 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....21-26...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-010900-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
505 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28...EXCEPT AROUND 31 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 30 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    FLURRIES UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25...EXCEPT 29-34 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-010900-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
505 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28...EXCEPT 34-39 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (770).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 27 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    FLURRIES UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (700).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....22-27...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-010900-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
505 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF FLURRIES AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 27 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    FLURRIES UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-010900-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
505 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 27 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....18-23.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

KB



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