Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 141123
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Spot Forecast for Britt rd piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
623 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on December 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Lingering lake clouds and light snow showers will
impact parts of northern lower Michigan today...mainly northwest
lower Michigan although cloud cover will spread into the Huron
National Forest and the burn site as we go through the day. Light
northwest winds through the day.

Lake effect snow showers increase later tonight through Friday. Most
of the snow shower activity will remain across northwest lower
Michigan but some lighter snows will reach the burn site.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) early then increasing
                    clouds (70-80 percent).
Temperature.........7 at ignition...Max 19.
RH..................76 percent at ignition...Min 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 5 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    northwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2100-3700
                    ft AGL increasing to 4100-4500 ft AGL early in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 17 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /300 at ignition. Max...excellent /600/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  30  43  56  69  70  72  73  77
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............7   10  13  15  17  18  19  18  17
RH..............76  73  67  61  61  61  59  64  64
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   5   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  14  13  13  13  13  14  14  14
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3
VRate/100.......3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Snow showers
                    likely overnight.
Temperature.........Min 13.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming light late
                    in the evening becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    after midnight.
Mixing height.......2200-4000 ft AGL decreasing to 1100-1900 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 13 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to good (100-500).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  85  82  80  78  80  82  84  87  91  94  95
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY
Weather type....                            SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............16  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  13  14  14  15
RH..............77  80  76  88  88  84  87  87  87  88  88  88
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   5   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  13  13  13  13  13  13  12  12  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   3   3   2   2
VRate/100.......5   5   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow showers likely.
Temperature.........Max 26.
RH..................Min 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming west 7 to
                    10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100-2900 ft AGL increasing to 4200-5600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 22 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-1100).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........96     95     93     90     87     83
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............15     17     21     24     26     25
RH..............92     92     84     81     74     74
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 4   SW 5   SW 6   W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.10     5      10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   1200   1800   4200   5600   5300
Transport wind..SW 13  SW 14  SW 15  W 16   W 18   W 21
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate/100.......1      2      3      7      10     11

$$
Forecaster...Brian Adam
Requested by...Patrick Hayes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719974.0/APX



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