Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 231237
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WELCOME LAKE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
837 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.

.DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND DAMP WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING. THEN, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY.  DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 65.
RH..................93 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1700-3600
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /400 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR /500
                    KNOT-FT/.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 97  93  85  79  76  64  58
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............60  59  59  60  61  62  63  63  62
RH..............93  93  90  84  81  75  70  70  70
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.20  20  18  17  17  16  15  14  14
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4
VRATE KT-FT/10000   0   0   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (0-400 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
TEMP............61  59  57  54  52  50  49  49  49  49  48  48
RH..............70  75  77  83  86  89  93  89  89  89  89  89
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.14  15  15  15  14  13  10  7   5   3   3   5
VRATE KT-FT/10000   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4700 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (0-400 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........29     36     37     38     39     42
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............48     47     58     64     64     65
RH..............89     93     72     60     56     54
20 FT WIND......NE 2   NE 2   NE 4   E 5    E 5    E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....300    500    3200   4700   4300   4400
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 6   NE 7   E 8    E 8    E 6    E 3
HAINES INDEX....3      4      4      4      3      3
VRATE KT-FT/10000      0      0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...BRUCE SMITH
REQUESTED BY...WARNER VANDERHEUEL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1600987.0/APX


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