Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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894
FNUS73 KAPX 121510
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Pine River...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1110 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on October 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...The cloud cover will thicken through the day as an
area of low pressure moves toward the Great Lakes.  The
directions will start out light and variable, but with mixing,
will become east and generally increase and turn southeast, before
relaxing around 7pm and becoming more from the south. Relative
humidity levels are expected to be above 80 percent all day.
Drizzle may develop before the rain around 4 pm, but the light
steady rain will be after 5 pm.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Chance of rain and
                    drizzle late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........52 at ignition...Max 57.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1600-2400
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /300 at ignition. Max...good /300/.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....                        CHC
Weather type....                        RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  54  55  55  55  55  56
RH..............86  83  80  80  83  86  86
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   6   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.5  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  15  14  13  12  10  10
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate/100.......3   3   3   3   3   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Chance of rain and
                    drizzle through the night. Patchy fog in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Temperature.........Min 52.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......800-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to fair (100-200).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99  98
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  56  56  56  56  56  56  56  56  56  55  55
RH..............90  93  96  96  96  100 100 96  96  93  96  93
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  14  15  15  15  14  13  12  10  9
Haines index....2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog in the
                    morning. Chance of rain early in the morning.
                    Chance of drizzle in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......800-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph increasing to 16 to 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-900).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........95     98     88     79     61     67
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RAIN   DRZL   DRZL   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............54     53     57     63     67     67
RH..............96     100    93     78     63     61
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 3   SW 5   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5             10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1000   1500   2800   4400   4500
Transport wind..SW 9   SW 12  SW 15  SW 17  SW 20  W 17
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate/100.......1      1      2      5      9      8

$$
Forecaster...Jeff Lutz
Requested by...Holly Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717155.0/APX



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