Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 300933
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Joslin Farm Prescribed Burn...NE-FFM
National Weather Service Taunton MA
533 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Light north winds become northeast around daybreak, then southeast
by late afternoon. It will be dry today into tonight as a high
pressure moves across our region. There will be a chance of
showers Monday.

Minimum relative humidities will range from 45 to 50 percent for
today, and 75 to 80 percent for Monday.

.OUTLOOK...Tuesday through Friday...

Showers likely with scattered thunderstorms Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Dry conditions for Wednesday. Low pressure moving
up from the southeast on Thursday, will bring a period of rain
into Friday.

.TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (18900-31100 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......25, decreasing to 7.0.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Dewpoint............37.
LVORI...............2.
CWR.................0 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max apparent temp...56.
Surface winds.......Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1300-3100 ft AGL, increasing to 2600-3800 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
ADI.................30, decreasing to 27 late.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 17 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  29  29  33  37  41  46  50  54  59  63  68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  53  54  54  55  55  56  56  56  56  55  54
Dewpoint........39  37  36  35  35  36  37  37  38  38  38  38
RH..............57  54  50  48  47  49  49  49  51  51  53  54
Heat index (F)..54  53  54  54  55  55  56  56  56  56  55  54
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10          10  10  10
Surface wnd dir.N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.8   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10          10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  13  10  8   8   8   8   10  12  14
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.............28  31  33  33  31  26  27  28  22  26  27  31
Haines index....4   4   3   3   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/100019  21  22  24  24  22  23  25  27  31  30  31
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20  11  11  7.0 7.0

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (8900-27100 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......7.0, decreasing to 1.0.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Dewpoint............39, increasing to 42 late.
LVORI...............3.
CWR.................6 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers until just after midnight. Areas of
                    drizzle after midnight. A chance of showers
                    late.
Surface winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2300 ft AGL.
ADI.................28, decreasing to 9.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 15 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........72  75  79  83  88  92  91  91  90  91  93  94
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH ARS CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  DZL RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............52  50  50  49  48  48  48  47  47  47  47  48
Dewpoint........38  37  37  37  38  38  39  39  40  41  42  43
RH..............59  61  61  63  68  68  71  74  76  79  83  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  15  15  15  15  15  14  14  13
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
ADI.............28  9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  9   9   8
VRate kt-ft/100027  23  19  18  19  18  18  18  17  14  12  9
Ceiling (kft)...7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.0

.MONDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5500-53500 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......0.3, increasing to 20.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Dewpoint............45, increasing to 55.
LVORI...............4.
CWR.................6 percent, increasing to 11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Min humidity........81 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A chance of
                    showers and areas of drizzle in the morning. A
                    slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
                    Patchy fog early in the morning. Patchy fog
                    early.
Surface winds.......South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2400 ft AGL.
ADI.................16, increasing to 70.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 20 mph, increasing to 23 to 25
                    mph late.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........93     90     87     80     67     60
Weather cov.....CHANCE AREAS                       S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR DRZL   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     0      0      0      10     10
Temp............48     50     53     58     62     62
Dewpoint........44     47     50     53     56     56
RH..............86     89     89     83     81     81
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 5   S 5    S 6    S 8    S 9
20 ft wind gust.10                   10     15     15
Surface wind....SE 5   SE 5   S 5    S 6    S 8    S 9
Surface wnd gst.10                   10     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....700    500    800    1500   2400   2400
Transport wind..SE 13  SE 14  S 13   SW 16  SW 23  SW 24
LVORI...........4      5      5      4      3      3
ADI.............14     15     15     26     49     68
VRate kt-ft/10008      6      9      21     48     51
Ceiling (kft)...0.3    0.3    0.8    2.0    2.5    20

$$
Forecaster...Belk
Requested by...Joel R. Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1708037.0/BOX
.EMAIL joelcarlson@ne-ffm.com


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