Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 260934
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 100 HO...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
534 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 26.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
Slowly weakening low pressure centered just east of Ocean
City Maryland early today will continue to spiral some bands
of very light rain or drizzle into the Susquehanna Valley and
points east this morning. This storm system will move toward
the Southeast New England coast this afternoon and tonight,
gradually bringing drier air into the district this
afternoon into Thursday.

A disturbance aloft and warm frontal boundary at the surface
will lift northeast across the commonwealth Thursday, bringing
a good chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms across
the western half of the state Thursday afternoon and evening.
A few of the thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and hail.

With respect to temperatures, a significant warm up is
expected to start today. High temperatures this afternoon
will range from the mid and upper 60s over the Delaware
Valley, to the mid and upper 70s across the lowlands of
western PA.

Temperatures will climb into the 70s to near 80 for Thursday
through Saturday.

Min afternoon RH will slowly lower from an average of 50 to 70
percent today, to the 35 to 45 percent range by Friday
afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of drizzle
                    and fog...mainly early this morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......1100-2900 ft AGL...increasing to 3500-4000 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  86  78  70  62  58  56  53  51
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....DZF DZF
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............55  57  60  62  65  67  69  70  71
RH..............86  83  78  72  68  63  59  57  53
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5           5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.0 3.9
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  S
Transp wind spd.3   2   2   2   3   5   5   5   6
Haines index....2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......1700-3600 ft AGL...decreasing to 1000-1600 ft
                    AGL after midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........48  45  44  44  44  44  43  43  43  44  45  46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............70  68  66  65  63  62  60  59  58  58  57  57
RH..............55  59  61  65  70  72  78  80  86  83  86  86
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   9   10  12  13  14  14  14  14  13  12  10
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400...then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    9 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......900-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  58  64  69
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
Temp............57  57  58  61  65  68  71  73  76  76  77  77
RH..............86  86  83  78  68  63  57  55  50  50  50  50
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  12  12  12  12  12  13  14  15  16  17  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Erdman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707761.0/CTP
.EMAIL eerdman@pa.gov


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