Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 311045
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDLAND FIRE TRAINING CAMP 20150531...PA DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0639 EDT ON MAY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISTRICT
WILL BE GRADUALLY PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM
YOUNGSTOWN OHIO...TO BRADFORD...AND ELMIRA NEW YORK AT SUNRISE
AND WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROLLS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF OF AN INCH...TO ONE INCH...
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL PENN. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING EAST 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 16-25 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1500...THEN >25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6400-7700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
                    TO 5200 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH
                    LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............69  69  69  69  69  62  65  82  84  88  89  89
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                            SCT SCT LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................68  69  69  69  71  72  74  75  76  75  74  75
RH..................88  87  86  85  82  79  75  71  67  70  72  70
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   SW  S   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   8   6   3   1   1   3   6   6   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.6 4.4 6.4 7.7 7.5 6.6 5.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   8   8   7   6   6   8   12  14  15  16  16
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   4   5   6   6   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1900...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............84  81  83  84  87  90  93  96  98  98  98  98
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............LKY LKY
TEMP................73  71  70  68  66  65  63  61  60  59  59  57
RH..................72  75  77  80  83  86  89  93  97  97  97  99
20 FT WIND DIR......E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
TRANSP WIND DIR.....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
TRANSP WIND SPD.....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
LAL.................4   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800...THEN >25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............98  98  94  94  94  94  94  94  94  94  94  94
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............        LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................57  58  58  60  61  63  64  65  66  66  67  66
RH..................98  92  91  86  82  78  75  72  70  69  68  69
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......7   6   6   7   7   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
TRANSP WIND DIR.....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
TRANSP WIND SPD.....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
LAL.................2   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...MATT REED
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150531.WILDL.01/CTP


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