Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 221745
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 235 Unit 1-planning...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
1245 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably mild conditions, with record daytime high
temperatures in some locations, will reside across the
district today through Friday, as a wavering and nearly
stationary frontal boundary stays just to our north.

Strengthening low pressure will move northeast across the
Upper Great Lakes late Friday into early Saturday. The cold
front trailing south from this low will bring showers, and
perhaps even a few thunderstorms with gusty winds and
small hail during the day Saturday.

Gusty west wind of 35 to 45 mph will develop in the wake
of the front Saturday into Saturday night.

*Note some forecast parameters unavailable after 7PM Thursday.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers with isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200...then 1-8 strikes until
                    1300...then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-1600 ft AGL...increasing to 4100-4900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph...increasing to 14 to 17
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  62  64  67  69  72  79  82  81
Weather cov.....            SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
LAL.............1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............53  57  60  63  65  67  68  67  65
RH..............80  75  69  65  63  59  57  59  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.1
Transp wind dir.SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   6   9   13  16  17  16  15  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Scattered
                    showers.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900...then No Tstms until
                    2000.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1300-2800 ft AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 13 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth early in the evening.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  81  82  86  88  88  89  89  89  89  89  87
Weather cov.....SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO
LAL.............2   1   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............63  61  59  58  57  56  55  55  54  53  53  52
RH..............65  70  75  75  77  80  80  80  83  86  86  89
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.3 M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind spd.13  10  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Haines index....4   4   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A chance of
                    showers early in the morning.
LAL.................
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......MISSING.
Transport winds.....
Haines Index........MISSING.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  78  78  78  78  78  78  78  78  78  78  78
Weather cov.....CHC
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............51  52  53  56  59  61  63  65  67  68  67  66
RH..............93  89  89  83  78  72  70  68  63  59  61  63
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind dir.M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind spd.M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Haines index....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Gartner
Requested by...Brent McNeal
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702633.0/CTP
.EMAIL bmcneal@pa.gov


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