Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 231415 AAA
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Norwegian Point Prescribed Burn...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
915 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on October 23.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast...
please call the National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front will move eastward across the burn site this
morning. Winds will turn from the west and then northwest behind
the boundary and wind speeds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with
gusts between 20 and 25 mph. Rain showers are likely this
afternoon behind the front. Strong winds from the northwest to
north will continue tonight and Tuesday as an area of low pressure
strengthens over the Great Lakes. Showers will taper off late
tonight or early Tuesday morning. A weak warm front will advance
eastward across the burn site Tuesday night and turning winds from
the west and speeds will decrease. Mostly cloudy skies are
anticipated for Wednesday with west winds 5 to 10 mph forecast. By
Wednesday evening the next storm system will be moving into the
region. Winds will turn from the south overnight and the chance of
rain showers will increase toward sunrise.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Showers likely early in the afternoon,
                    then showers late in the afternoon. Showers
                    likely late in the afternoon. Chance of showers
                    80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph with gusts to around 15
                    mph increasing to northwest around 15 mph with
                    gusts to around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (37800-54400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (76200-105000 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY DEF LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  51  51  50  48
RH..............71  71  71  71  74
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   10  10  15  15
20 FT wind gust.15  18  22  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.15  15  25  30  30
SDspl kt-ft/100038  54  76  97  105

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early in the
                    evening, then a chance of showers early in the
                    evening. A slight chance of showers late in the
                    evening. Chance of showers 60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph increasing to
                    north. Gusts up to 27 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 30 to 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (111100 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............46     43     42     39     38     37
RH..............76     79     79     85     85     85
20 ft wind......NW 10  N 15   N 15   N 15   N 15   N 15
20 ft wind gust.23     25     27     25     26     26
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   3700   3200   3200   3300   3600
Transport wind..N 30   N 35   N 35   N 35   N 35   N 35
SDspl kt-ft/1000109    109    102    102    104    109

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 15 mph decreasing to
                    around 10 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up
                    to 26 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 35 to 40 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (104500-133600 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............36     35     34     38     41     42
RH..............85     82     82     67     55     50
20 ft wind......N 15   N 15   N 15   N 15   N 15   NW 15
20 ft wind gust.26     26     25     26     26     24
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   3200   3200   3700   3900   3900
Transport wind..N 35   N 40   N 40   N 40   N 40   N 35
SDspl kt-ft/1000106    106    108    126    131    124

$$
Forecaster...Kevin
Requested by...Lori Karau
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717695.0/DLH
.EMAIL lkarau@fs.fed.us


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