Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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192
FNUS73 KDMX 221101
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Mount Ayr East Timber...IDNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
501 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and breezy conditions continue today. With minimum relative
humidity values lowering to under 30% over portions of southern
Iowa this afternoon...there will be an elevated fire threat for
fine fuels and grasses. Elsewhere increasing relative humidity
over the north today...where temperatures are cooler...will
lessen the threat for fires in that area. Colder with wetting
rainfall returns for Thursday with moderate to heavy snow possible
over portions of northern Iowa Friday followed by stronger
northwest winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 16 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2500-2900 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 16 mph shifting to the west around
                    12 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   3   4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............47  52  58  62  67  71  73  73  70  67
RH..............63  56  45  41  36  32  30  30  33  37
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..9   10  14  15  16  15  15  14  12  9
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  20  20  20  20  20  15      10
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   6   8   9   10  9   9   8   7   5
EYE LVL WND GST.10  15  20  20  20  20  20  15      10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
MIXNG WIND SPD..9   12  16  21  24  24  22  18  15  12
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 6 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2300 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........4      3      0      2      22     40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............63     56     50     47     44     42
RH..............43     55     66     71     76     79
20 FT WIND......W 7    NW 6   NW 6   N 7    N 8    NE 8
20 FT WIND GUST.                            10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..W 4    NW 4   NW 4   N 4    N 5    NE 5
EYE LVL WND GST.                            10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2300   900    300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......W 8    NW 8   NW 8   NW 8   N 9    N 13
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      3      3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the morning, then rain likely in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 9 to 18 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 23 mph increasing to 26 to 29 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........76        90        91        81
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............41        44        50        55
RH..............82        79        68        61
20 FT WIND......NE 9G15   NE 12G15  E 15G25   E 18G30
EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 5G15   NE 7G15   E 9G25    E 11G30
MIX HGT (FT)....300       1100      1800      1700
MIXNG WIND......NE 17     NE 15     E 18      E 23
HAINES INDEX....3         3         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Vachalek
Requested by...Heath Van Waus
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702590.0/DMX
.EMAIL heath.vanwaus@dnr.iowa.gov



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