Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FNUS74 KEPZ 152245
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Salado Pile...BLM
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
445 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 MDT on August 15.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Strengthening westerly flow aloft overspreading the area...will lead
to a downturn in storm activity through the rest of the week.
With that said...isolated locally heavy rain will still be possible.
Duration of precipitation however will be less.  There is also an
increased risk of hail mixing with the rain from some of the storms.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL increasing to 11500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 4 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (40900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........15     15     15     25     25     25
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............62     67     79     86     85     83
RH..............58     49     34     27     29     31
20 ft wind......W 8    W 7    NW 6   N 5    W 5    SW 5
20 ft wind gust.15     15     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....9200   9200   9200   11500  11500  11500
Transport wind..W 9    NW 10  NW 9   W 5    W 3    SW 3
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
Vent Rate.......FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 4 mph shifting to the south around 3
                    mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........29        29        25        25
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............80        68        65        62
RH..............34        49        50        54
20 FT wind......S 5G10    SW 6G10   W 6G10    N 4G5
Mix hgt (ft)....8900      8900      500       500
Transport wind..S 3       SW 3      W 5       W 2
Haines index....3         3         3         3
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...TRIPOLI
Requested by...Dominic Bell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714439.0/EPZ
.EMAIL dlbell@blm.gov


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.