Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 191747
FWSEPZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR NOGAL RX...NM-MEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX
1047 AM MST THU JAN 19 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON JANUARY 19.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER ON
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
THE UPPER 40S THROUGH MID 60S. VENT RATES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN POOR.

&&

...PERCENTAGES SHOWN IN THE SKY/WEATHER PORTION REFLECT
SKY COVER AMOUNT...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 19 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (36050 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
SKY (%).........51     51     51
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE   NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
TEMP............37     41     43
RH..............60     52     47
20 FT WIND......W 7    W 12   W 14
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....1200   1800   1800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15   W 20   W 20
HAINES INDEX....3      2      2
VENT RATE.......POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20
                    MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 19 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (23250 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
SKY (%).........54     54     54     55     55     55
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSN   RNSN   RNSN   SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............41     39     37     35     34     32
RH..............50     54     59     64     66     75
20 FT WIND......W 12   W 10   W 9    W 8    W 8    W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.20     18     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1700   1700   1700   800    800    800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 19  SW 19  SW 19  SW 17  SW 17  SW 17
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2
VENT RATE.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 22 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (25900 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
SKY (%).........67        67        72        72
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR    SNSHWR    RNSN      RNSN
TSTM COV........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30        30        50        50
LAL.............1         1         1         1
TEMP............34        30        37        37
RH..............69        85        67        70
20 FT WIND......W 10G20   W 13G23   W 17G28   W 20G30
MIX HGT (FT)....900       900       1500      1500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 20     SW 20     SW 23     SW 23
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         2
VENT RATE.......POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
FORECASTER...CRESPO
REQUESTED BY...WILMER LAPAZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700561.0/EPZ
.EMAIL NMADC@FS.FED.US


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