Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 202140
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Perk RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
240 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 MST on February 20.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow will continue across the region for the next
several days with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Expect lightest winds to be lightest tomorrow with an increase
each of the next couple of days. At this time it looks like
relative humidities will be above critical thresholds, but winds
will likely make it the end of the week. There could be a few very
light showers over area tomorrow afternoon but precip amounts
would be only a few hundredths of an inch at best.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......2600-4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (104000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      3 PM
Sky (%).........15
Weather cov.....NONE
Weather type....NONE
Tstm cov........NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0
LAL.............1
Temp............47
RH..............55
20 ft wind......SW 13
20 ft wind gust.25
Mix hgt (ft)....4100
Transport wind..W 30
Haines index....2
Vent Rate.......VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 26.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 20 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL decreasing to 900 ft AGL by
                    midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........16     16     20     27     27     27
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............43     37     31     29     28     27
RH..............67     81     92     94     95     95
20 ft wind......SW 15  W 12   W 10   W 7    W 8    W 6
20 ft wind gust.25     20     15     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   4000   4000   900    900    900
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South-southeast winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph in afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300-6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South-southwest 23 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (53900 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (133800 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........65        65        65        65
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      S CHNC    S CHNC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............25        28        41        47
RH..............100       100       55        49
20 FT wind......W 6G10    SW 6G10   S 8G15    S 10G20
Mix hgt (ft)....4300      4300      6100      6100
Transport wind..W 8       SW 13     S 16      SW 25
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vent Rate.......FAIR      FAIR      VYGD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Wendal Housler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802231.0/EPZ
.EMAIL teralowe@fs.fed.us



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