Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 280026
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Corral...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
626 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 MDT on June 27.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air has started to move in from the west should limit
showers and thunderstorms for at least the next few days.
Temperatures will be warming back to around low 90 for the burn
area through the rest of the week and into early next week.
Relative humidities will be falling back into the upper single
digits for the next few days. There will be a little surge in
moisture going into the weekend and early next week with isolated
thunderstorms returning. Winds will be occasionally breezy the
next couple of days and again early next week which could bring
about near critical conditions.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........25-28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    until early morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......12300 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (208400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1300 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........56     56     56     21     21     21
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     0      0      0
LAL.............2      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............79     70     61     56     52     52
RH..............19     22     25     25     26     23
20 ft wind......W 13   W 11   W 11   W 9    W 7    W 6
20 ft wind gust.25     25     20     20     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....12300  12300  12300  200    200    200
Transport wind..W 16   W 8    W 8    W 8    W 7    W 6
Haines index....5      5      6      5      4      5
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....84-87.
Min humidity........8-9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 11 to 16 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL increasing to 10100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (97700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (153400 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........31     31     31     46     46     46
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............50     61     76     82     85     85
RH..............24     16     10     9      9      9
20 ft wind......W 6    W 9    W 13   W 16   W 16   W 14
20 ft wind gust.10     15     25     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....6600   6600   6600   10100  10100  10100
Transport wind..W 6    W 13   W 17   W 17   W 16   W 17
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....50-52.
Max humidity........36-39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (141400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1500 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........14        14        14        14
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............84        71        59        53
RH..............11        18        27        35
20 FT wind......W 12G25   W 8G15    NW 6G10   NW 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....8300      8300      200       200
Transport wind..W 20      W 10      W 10      W 10
Haines index....5         4         5         5
Vent Rate.......VYGD      VYGD      POOR      POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....84-88.
Min humidity........10-11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL increasing to 9500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 19 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (93500 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (144400 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........36           36           36
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............51           77           85
RH..............38           15           11
20 FT wind......NW 7G15      W 7G15       W 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....5500         5500         9500
Transport wind..W 9          W 18         W 18
Haines index....4            4            5
Vent Rate.......GOOD         GOOD         VYGD

$$
Forecaster...PAZOS
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711287.8/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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