Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 191459
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
859 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0908 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO
TODAY THAT IS SETTING OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
MORNING FORECAST MODELS THOUGH ONLY PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER SAN JUANS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE FIRE SITE
WOULD BE OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL GO TO BED WITH SUNSET.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER ON SATURDAY BUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING SOUTHWEST 2-7 MPH BY NOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR AFTERNOON
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMES GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6100 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 2-5 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    EAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200 THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140919.SAULS.01/GJT


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