Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 021259
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...CO-SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
659 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EXPECT SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE WILL BE
BETWEEN 1300 TO 1500 THIS AFTERNOON.  ON FRIDAY...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WILDFIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.  ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
                    WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS...
                    NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY. MOST LIKELY
                    OCCURRENCE BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (19300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (72000-81100 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...PAUL FRISBIE
REQUESTED BY...R  GUSTAFSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.01/GJT



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