Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FNUS73 KLSX 231135
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Two Rivers Savannah 2...USFWS
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
535 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will remain above normal today and tomorrow at the burn
site. Temperatures will be much cooler this weekend after a cold front
moves across the area on Friday afternoon and evening. Minimum afternoon
RH values will probably be lower tomorrow than they will be today.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday afternoon, but
the best chance for precipitation will be farther east. There will be a
wind shift at the burn site on Friday afternoon between noon and 6pm when
a dryline moves across the region.

The burn site is geographically along the eastern edge of an area which
may experience either heightened fire danger or red flag conditions
on Friday afternoon. There is still some uncertainty about winds and RH
for tomorrow afternoon, and the next shift of forecasters on duty today
may need to consider either a Fire Weather Watch or a Red Flag Warning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Patchy fog late
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................96 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 12 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Winds east at 1-2 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    light winds becoming southeast 2-5 mph in
                    the afternoon. The adjustment factor was 0.4 for
                    unsheltered fuels and fuel model 1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Less than 100 ft at ignition, 2100 ft AGL at max
                    heating.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 m/s-m) at max heating.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........77     86     83     81     77     75
Weather cov.....PATCHY
Weather type....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     60     67     71     69     66
RH..............96     81     65     59     61     68
20 ft wind......E 3    SE 3   SE 6   SE 10  SE 12  SE 12
20 ft wind gust.5      5      10     15     20     20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 12 mph.
Eye level winds.....South winds 4-5 mph. The adjustment factor was
                    0.4 based on unsheltered fuels and fuel model 1.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 19 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph shifting to the west 19 to 20 mph
                    with gusts to around 35 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 4-8 mph with gusts to around
                    12 mph shifting to the west 7-8 mph with gusts to
                    around 14 mph late in the afternoon. The adjustment
                    factor was 0.4 based on unsheltered fuels and fuel
                    model 1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (24210 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$

Forecaster...Kanofsky
Requested by...Thad Herzberger
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702674.0/LSX



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