Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 200934
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Warren Easter Island Rx fire...MISC
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
434 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on October 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
The dry and warm weather will continue today, with the wildfire
danger at moderate to high. Minimum afternoon relative humidity
values will gradually increase as a south wind flow brings more
moisture into the region. The chance of rain will increase
significantly over the weekend, as a storm system moves through
the region. Rain amounts late Saturday and Sunday will generally
be from around a quarter inch to around one inch. Some locations
could see a bit higher amounts. Reference the Arkansas Forestry
Commission for county burn bans and a map of the moderate to high
wildfire danger across Arkansas.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................96 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 7 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southeast at 5 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 5 to 8
                    mph.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Dispersion..........7 increasing to 16 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4577 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....None.
Weather type....None.
Tstm cov........None.
Temp............54  55  56  60  65  69  73  76  77  78  79  78
RH..............96  91  88  79  70  63  58  54  52  50  49  50
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.                        10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.                        10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 62.
RH..................Max 88 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Dispersion..........22 decreasing to 4 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....None.
Weather type....None.
Tstm cov........None.
Temp............76  73  71  70  69  68  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..............54  59  63  66  69  71  70  72  76  77  81  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   10
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.SATURDAY...

Temperature.........Max 81.
RH..................Min 63 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion..........11 increasing to 43.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5246 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............64  64  65  68  71  74  76  78  79  80  80  79
RH..............87  88  87  82  77  72  69  67  64  63  64  66
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  14  15  16  17  17  17  16  16  15
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30

$$
Forecaster...M Trexler
Requested by...Kyle Lapham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717591.0/LZK
.EMAIL klapham@tnc.org



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