Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 172054
FWSLZK

SPOT FORECAST FOR E.HORSESHOE 1A...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON JANUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IMMEDIATELY.

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES AT THE BURN SITE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE
PRETTY HIGH. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND THEN AGAIN MID/LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT THESE SHOULD ELEVATED AND NOT VERY
STRONG.


.WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 53.
RH..................86 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 77 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
STABILITY CLASS.....C.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WINDS EAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS.
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
DISPERSION..........10.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 2.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 2100 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 3064 FT MSL.

TIME (CST)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............50  51  53  53  53  52
RH..............86  83  77  80  80  83
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   E   E   E   E   E
EYE LVL WND SPD.2   2   2   2   2   2
EYE LVL WND GST.5   5   5   5   5   5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   6   5   5   6   7
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  30  30  30  30

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
STABILITY CLASS.....C.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LVORI...............1.
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DISPERSION..........4 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 2100 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 3058 FT MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............51  50  49  49  48  48  48  47  47  47  47  46
RH..............86  89  93  93  96  96  93  96  96  96  96  100
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
EYE LVL WND SPD.2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
EYE LVL WND GST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8   9   9   10  12  13  13  12  9   7   5   3
CHC OF PCPN (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40

.THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60.
RH..................MIN 69 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....C.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISPERSION..........7 INCREASING TO 20 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
                    TO 16 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).BECOMING 4800 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).BECOMING 5803 FT MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............46  46  46  48  51  54  56  58  59  60  60  59
RH..............100 100 100 100 93  86  83  77  72  69  69  69
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
EYE LVL WND GST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.2   2   5   6   7   9   10  10  12  12  13  15
CHC OF PCPN (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

$$
FORECASTER...C DALTON
REQUESTED BY...TIM NUTLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700485.0/LZK
.EMAIL TNUTLEY@FS.FED.US


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