Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FNUS72 KMFL 201444
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR PANTHER WEST...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1044 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON JULY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STALLED COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS.
FOR THE BURN SITE TODAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED IN THE REGION OF THE BURN SITE. BUT THE WIND FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD IS UNCERTAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY NOT PENETRATE AS FAR AS THE BURN
SITE. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND MAY EXTEND AS FAR WESTWARD AS THE BURN SITE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 98.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 43 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 0 TO 3 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....0...INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 36 EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 19 LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........30     30     60     60     60     55
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       S CHC  SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
TEMP............84     91     93     97     89     84
RH..............76     60     52     43     56     67
20 FT WIND......SE 0   E 2    N 3    N 3    NE 2   NE 0
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2000   3800   5500   5500   4500   2400
MIXNG WIND......SE 0   E 3    N 6    N 6    N 3    NE 0
DISPERSION IDX..0      18     36     36     19     0
LVORI...........4      2      1      1      2      4
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     20     50     50     50     30
LAL.............1      2      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING EAST EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....0.
LVORI...............7.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 40 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 3 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....1...INCREASING TO 17 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...DIEHL
REQUESTED BY...CASS PALMER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140720.PANTH.01/MFL



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