Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 251717
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Challenge fire...NCFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
117 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1400 EDT on July 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front has pushed through area and moving south and will
produce north-northeast winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
through afternoon. No shower or thunderstorm activity expected
over area through this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
                    to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 41745 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 2.
ADI.................Max 29.
Haines index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.04 to 30.06 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............46  46  46  46
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............82  81  83  83
RH.................69  69  62  63
20 FT wind dir.....NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd.....11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust....17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)......4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8
Transp wind dir....N   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd....10  9   8   8
LVORI..............2   2   2   2
ADI................29  26  23  22
Haines index.......3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..42  38  33  30
Stability class....B   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy,
                    then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until early morning.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms until early
                    morning.
Mixing height.......Min 400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 5405 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 9.
Sfc pressure........30.05 to 30.10 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............48  51  52  46  34  28  28  28  28  29  30  30
Weather cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.......RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp...............81  79  78  76  76  75  75  76  76  75  74  73
RH.................67  69  71  76  76  76  76  74  74  79  82  84
20 FT wind dir.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd.....11  10  10  10  9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......3.1 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd....9   10  12  13  13  14  15  15  15  15  15  14
LVORI..............2   3   3   4   4   4   4   3   3   4   4   4
ADI................22  14  13  14  9   9   10  10  10  10  10  9
VRate mph-ft/1000..28  25  21  18  13  7   9   11  12  10  8   5
Stability class....B   C   C   B   B   B   F   E   E   E   E   E

$$
Forecaster...Merrell
Requested by...April Seko
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713368.0/MHX
.EMAIL april.seko@ncagr.gov


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