Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 230726
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Toso fire...FL FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
326 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0800 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Expect light southerly winds through sunrise. Winds
will back to east-southeast and increase slightly up towards around
10 mph. Additional moisture across the area will promote our highest
rain chances in recent memory. An isolated lightning storm will
also be possible.

Expect additional settling of smoke along with some shallow mist
from now through about 900 AM this morning. This could lead to a locally
dense mixture of shallow smoke and fog near and to the NW-north of the
burn zone.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes, should
                    storms develop.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east-southeast 7 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4300 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 42.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  69  69  69  69  69  74  74  74  74
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............72  75  78  81  82  83  85  85  85  85
RH..............86  83  73  60  63  59  54  55  55  56
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..1   2   5   6   7   8   9   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.                    10  10  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.4 2.4 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.3   5   5   6   7   8   9   9   10  12
Dispersion idx..2   10  17  25  30  35  40  41  43  44
LVORI...........6   5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    in the evening, then slight chance of rain
                    after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1500-3300 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1100 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South-southeast 7 to 15 mph becoming southwest or
                    west late in the night.
Dispersion index....33 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 9 after midnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........74     62     62     62     55     55
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............2      2      2      2      1      1
Temp............82     76     73     70     70     69
RH..............61     76     85     92     95     95
20 ft wind......E 10   E 8    SE 6   S 5    SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   1500   800    400    300    300
Transport wind..SE 13  SE 15  SE 12  S 9    S 7    SW 8
Dispersion idx..33     10     8      6      5      6
LVORI...........2      4      5      6      7      9

$$
Forecaster...Sedlock
Requested by...Jason Slater
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1707091.5/MLB
.EMAIL jason.slater@myfwc.com



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