Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 191336
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for 123 Scrub...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
936 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on July 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TODAY...Ample moisture and instability will again produce
a high coverage of showers and afternoon lightning storms today.
Isolated showers will be possible through early afternoon, then
likelihood of showers and lightning storms will increase through
the mid and late afternoon hours. Light surface and transport
winds will produce poor to fair dispersion today.


Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2100-3600 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon, then decreasing to 2300 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 5 mph shifting to the north 6 to 8
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....16 increasing to 27 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 3 in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44  68  68  68  88  88  88  88
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70
LAL.............1   2   2   2   4   4   4   4
Temp............83  86  90  93  92  89  87  84
RH..............77  72  62  56  58  63  66  72
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   SE  E   NE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   5   6   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   N   NE
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   2   2   3   6   8
Dispersion idx..12  19  17  17  17  23  30  29
LVORI...........4   3   2   2   2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 2000, then 9-15 strikes
                    until 2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......300-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....21 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 9.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........88     81     81     81     51     51
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).70     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............4      3      3      1      1      1
Temp............82     79     78     77     76     75
RH..............76     86     90     93     94     96
20 ft wind......E 7    E 6    SE 5   SE 3   SE 2   SE 2
20 ft wind gust.                     5
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..NE 8   E 6    SE 5   SE 3   SE 2   SE 2
Dispersion idx..21     4      3      2      1      1
LVORI...........3      5      6      7      8      9

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 1 to 2 mph increasing to 2 to 3 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 10 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........51        57        57        76
Weather cov.....                    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    LIKELY    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).30        60        60        60
LAL.............1         1         4         4
Temp............75        81        87        88
RH..............96        82        65        61
20 FT wind......SE 2      S 3G5     W 6       S 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1300      3400      3600
Transport wind..SE 2      SE 2      SW 3      SE 2
Dispersion idx..1         4         14        8
LVORI...........9         5         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Glitto
Requested by...a
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1712989.0/MLB
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org



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