Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FNUS74 KMOB 281941
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for A-77 Bansa brun...Eglin AFB
National Weather Service Mobile AL
241 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on April 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
SUNDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...Mixed layer southerly flow strengthens on Saturday
bringing higher daily dispersion then. Storms the next couple days
look to remain isolated with small probabilities of occurrence at 10
to 20%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200-2300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...671-701 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 20 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 8 to 9 meters/second.
Dispersion index....38.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  68  69
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1
Temp............80  80  79
RH..............79  79  82
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..15  15  14
20 FT wind gust.25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.2 2.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  18  17
Trans wind dir..S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).9   8   8
Dispersion idx..38  36  35
LVORI...........3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......600-2200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...183-671 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 16 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 5 to 7 meters/second.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 11.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........70  72  M   M   M   M   M   77  M   M   M   M
Weather cov.....ISO
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........ISO
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............77  77  76  76  76  76  76  76  76  76  76  75
RH..............87  94  94  97  97  93  93  90  93  93  97  97
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..14  14  14  13  13  12  11  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.20  25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7
Mix hgt (km)....0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  15  15  15  15  15  14  13  13  12  12  13
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Trans spd (m/s).7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   6
Dispersion idx..33  17  15  15  15  14  13  12  12  11  12  13
LVORI...........4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 35
                    mph.
Mixing height.......800-2600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...244-792 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 23 mph increasing to 21 to 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 6 to 10 meters/second increasing to 9
                    to 11 meters/second in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 53.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........M   71  M   M   M   M   M   65  M   M   M   M
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  76  77  79  81  81  82  82  82  82  81  80
RH..............97  90  87  79  74  72  69  72  72  72  77  82
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  16  17  18  19  20  20  21  21  20  20  19
20 FT wind gust.20  30  30  30  30  35  35  35  35  35  35  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  16  17  20  21  22  23  24  24  23  22  21
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Trans spd (m/s).6   7   8   9   9   10  10  11  11  10  10  9
Dispersion idx..14  19  27  33  39  44  49  53  52  51  49  46
LVORI...........5   5   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3

$$
Forecaster...10
Requested by...Jerry Coon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707980.0/MOB
.EMAIL jerry.coon@us.af.mil



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