Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 131445
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Shop Piles...US FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
845 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A tight pressure gradient today, ample mixing, will allow for
southerly winds to strength during the mid/late morning, with
a few gusts above 25 mph during the afternoon. No precipitation
is expected but skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Temperature.........16 at ignition...Max 28.
RH..................66 percent at ignition...Min 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1100-2300
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 23 to 26 mph.
Mixing winds........Southwest 23 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /23700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /48100 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........3 or very low at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Temp............16  19  21  23  25  26  28  27  25
RH..............66  64  65  68  70  70  68  71  78
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   12  12  13  13  12  12  11  10
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  25  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.25  26  26  26  26  25  24  24  23
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixing wind spd.25  26  26  26  26  25  24  24  23
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100024  30  35  41  45  47  48  44  37

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Temperature.........Min 17.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 22 mph decreasing to 10 to 12 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing winds........South 13 to 22 mph decreasing to 10 to 12 mph
                    early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2300-31200 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Temp............23     22     21     19     18     17
RH..............84     84     81     84     92     96
20 ft wind......S 8    S 8    S 8    S 6    S 5    S 4
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   700    400    700    400    300
Transport wind..SW 22  SW 21  SW 18  S 16   S 13   S 12
Mixing wind.....SW 22  SW 21  SW 18  S 16   S 13   S 12
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100031     13     7      10     4      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........Max 39.
RH..................Min 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph.
Mixing winds........Southwest 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (2300-27500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Temp............17     19     26     35     39     38
RH..............96     96     81     69     67     70
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    S 7    S 7    S 8    SW 8
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    900    1300   1700   1600
Transport wind..S 10   S 13   S 16   SW 18  SW 18  SW 17
Mixing wind.....S 10   S 13   S 16   SW 18  SW 18  SW 17
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10002      6      12     21     26     24

$$
Forecaster...TAGGART
Requested by...Robert Bengson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1801880.0/MPX
.EMAIL robert_bengson@fws.gov



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