Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 221737
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Spot Forecast for Florida Creek...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1237 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...North winds will continue this afternoon. There is a
chance of showers from mid afternoon onward but the best chance
will be south of the spot site. Moderate humidity is expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon. Chance of showers 20 percent.
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6100-7700
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Mixing winds........Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /81500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /122000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............62  62  63  64  63  61
RH..............60  55  50  47  49  52
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.        10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...6.1 6.7 7.2 7.7 7.3 6.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  16  17  18  18  17
Mixing wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixing wind spd.15  16  17  18  18  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   5
SDspl kt-ft/100082  95  108 122 113 105

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Chance of rain showers until early morning,
                    then rain showers likely early in the morning.
                    Chance of showers 60 percent.
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL decreasing to 300-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 23 mph.
Mixing winds........Northwest 17 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (65000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    good (3900-39700 knot-ft) early in the evening.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............59     54     48     46     45     45
RH..............54     66     83     86     93     93
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 8   NW 7   NW 7   NW 7   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....6400   2300   300    300    1300   1900
Transport wind..NW 17  NW 17  NW 17  NW 18  NW 20  NW 22
Mixing wind.....NW 17  NW 17  NW 17  NW 18  NW 20  NW 22
Haines index....5      4      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100097     35     4      4      25     37

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the
                    morning, then chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers 70 percent.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2100-3900 ft AGL increasing to 4200-5200 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....North 22 to 26 mph.
Mixing winds........North 22 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (41800-86000 knot-ft)
                    increasing to excellent (92000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............46     48     50     52     53     55
RH..............89     86     80     74     71     66
20 ft wind......NW 8   N 10   N 11   N 12   N 13   N 13
20 ft wind gust.15     20     20     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   3100   3900   4500   5000   5100
Transport wind..N 23   N 23   N 22   N 22   N 23   N 25
Mixing wind.....N 23   N 23   N 22   N 22   N 23   N 25
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100042     61     76     86     100    110

$$
Forecaster...BORGHOFF
Requested by...Phil Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709879.0/MPX
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov


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