Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 131459
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALNUT GROVE...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
959 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 13.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 20FT WIND
GUSTS WILL EASILY EXCEED 15 MPH TODAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 17 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 600-2000 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3900 FT AGL IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 30
                    TO 39 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............70  72  72  73  74  75  75  75  74
RH..............69  65  59  54  55  55  57  60  62
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13
20 FT WIND GUST.30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.3 2.7 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
TRANSP WIND SPD.36  38  39  39  39  38  37  35  32
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   5  10  10
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............72     68     65     63     60     59
RH..............64     70     81     90     96     100
20 FT WIND......S 12   S 13   S 13   S 13   S 13   SW 12
20 FT WIND GUST.25     25     30     30     30     25
MIX HGT (FT)....1400   1000   900    800    1100   1400
TRANSPORT WIND..S 30   S 28   S 25   S 24   S 29   SW 30
CWR.............100    100    100    100    100    100
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60.
RH..................MIN 67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
CWR.................76 PERCENT DECREASING TO 39 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO
                    18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
                    INCREASING TO AROUND 23 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TEMP............59        60        58        53
RH..............96        82        67        75
20 FT WIND......SW 10G25  W 8G15    NW 8G15   N 9G20
MIX HGT (FT)....1500      1600      1700      2000
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 25     W 13      N 14      N 15
CWR.............80        80        40        40
HAINES INDEX....3         3         2         2

$$
FORECASTER...BLANCHARD
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140413.WALNU.02/PAH






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